Mereja.Forum

...... The move altered the political equation along one of the world’s most sensitive maritime routes. In Hargeisa, it was seen as a long-awaited validation. In Addis Ababa, it opened a new strategic space. In Beijing, Ankara, Cairo, and Riyadh, it raised immediate concern.

It consolidates a four-party alignment linking Israel, India, the UAE, and Ethiopia. This emerging axis centers on securing maritime chokepoints in the Gulf of Aden and Bab al-Mandab, while laying the groundwork for an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in eastern Africa..........

https://miniliksalsawi.substack.com/p/a ... -india-uae

Ethiopia isnt on one side Ethiopia has great ties with Saudi and Qatar and turkey billion dollar of trade . Last week Somali and djibouti president were in Ethiopia to inaugurate something there

On the surface of it Ethiopian policy is entirely pragmatic and driven by Ethiopia's geostrategic, geopolitical and geoeconomic national interest. How sustainable can such non-aligned position can survive remains to be seen. Therefore, if we ask what the bottom line Ethiopian position is going to be? I agree Salsawi. Ethiopian alliance with Israel, UAE, India & Somaliland is rock bottom.

The evidence for this view is the brilliant speech by Pres. Taye Atske Selassie @ World Government Summit yesterday. Essentially, he said these....

(1) He told USA that we don't trust America. We built a world class industrial park believing in our relationship with the US and yet America simply pooled the rug under our feet for a non-economic reasons. Therefore, he said, we don't blindly trust any relationship.

(2) He told Trump, Turkey, Egypt & and also indirectly Saudi - not to indulge in the luxury of making mistakes relying on your powers. In effect he was telling them that their power driven mistakes will have consequences. Good examples are Egypt and Turkey. Turkey is the 2nd largest trader with Ethiopia but kept opposing us in our quest for sea access. That is why we shifted to India and now India is our 2nd trader not Turkey. Ethiopians are discouraged from buying Turkey. Egypt gets 85% of her water from Ethiopia yet she is our mortal enemy. US tried to bully us so badly Ethiopia Joined BRICS etc. Now US is almost driven out of the Horn and working so hard to reassert its influence- hence the recent flurry of American activities in Horn

(3) Then the president said the Ethiopia examines each country and relationship carefully and separately fully aware of the fact that every relationship changes. In effect saying that every relationship is subject to change. It is in this category we find the Ethio-Saudi relation. In fact, the Ethio-Saudi relation is very fragile and superficial. The Saudi are firmly in the Islamic Nato (Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt) group.