The concept of using Ethiopia as a water bank is feasible! One new GERD every 5 years & two Nasser dams every 20 years!
Posted: 26 Jan 2026, 01:48
I gave AI the following assumptions to calculate the amount of water that could be stored on cascade of dams to be built over Abay, Baro and Tekeze dams
- 50 % of the water lost to Mediterianian Sea to be captured
- 50 % of the water wastage due to flooding & drainage in Sudan & Egypt to be stored in the new dams
- Nasser dam to continue filled even though it has huge evaporation loss(10–16 BCM/year range).
- Ethiopia, Sudan & Egypt to agree for 10% the normal flow out of Ethiopia to be stored on these new dams
Based on the above conservative assumptions:
( 1) Over 5 years !
Volume in billion Cubic meter ( BCM)
Low case
54.5 BCM
High case
77.0 BCM( similar to the size of the GERD)
(2) Over 20 years!
Low case
218 BCM
High case
308 BCM(about twice of the Nasser dam)
The above analysis proves the concept of using Ethiopia as a water bank is feasible !
The way forward : Ethiopian Hydrologists should give us detailed study based scenarios for the Ethiopia team to use it for the negotiation.
- 50 % of the water lost to Mediterianian Sea to be captured
- 50 % of the water wastage due to flooding & drainage in Sudan & Egypt to be stored in the new dams
- Nasser dam to continue filled even though it has huge evaporation loss(10–16 BCM/year range).
- Ethiopia, Sudan & Egypt to agree for 10% the normal flow out of Ethiopia to be stored on these new dams
Based on the above conservative assumptions:
( 1) Over 5 years !
Volume in billion Cubic meter ( BCM)
Low case
54.5 BCM
High case
77.0 BCM( similar to the size of the GERD)
(2) Over 20 years!
Low case
218 BCM
High case
308 BCM(about twice of the Nasser dam)
The above analysis proves the concept of using Ethiopia as a water bank is feasible !
The way forward : Ethiopian Hydrologists should give us detailed study based scenarios for the Ethiopia team to use it for the negotiation.