Amhara’s Goal vs. Oromo’s Vision: A Comparative Analysis of the Political Paths Toward Ethiopia’s Future
By Fayyis Oromia*
In recent times, a notable shift has occurred in the rhetoric of Amhara elites, as exemplified by figures like Ato Andargachew Tsige. Many of these elites are increasingly abandoning their previous ideological stance of “Ethiopiawinet” (Ethiopianism) in favor of more explicit territorial and political ambitions. The proposals now on the table include the restoration of Amapia (an Amharic-dominated geo-federation), the maintenance of Amarpia (an Amharic-dominated ethnic federation), or the creation of Amaria (an independent Republic of Amhara), comprising the former provinces of Gondar, Gojjam, Wollo, and Shoa, with Addis Ababa as its capital. This shift is fueled by the perception that Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s vision for Ethiopia is slowly transforming into either Orompia (an Oromic-led ethnic federation) or Oropia (an Oromic-led geo-federation), and that this transformation is a direct threat to their political objectives.
The critical question at hand is whether Amhara and Oromo elites can find a shared middle ground—a compromise that results in a united, inclusive Ethiopia, where power is equally distributed among all ethnic groups. Such a scenario would ideally involve proportional representation in all aspects of national life, reflecting the demographic and cultural diversity of the country. For example, the distribution of power could be 40% Oromo, 20% Agaw, 10% Amhara, 6% Somali, 5% Tigray, 4% Sidama, 3% Gurage, and so forth.
From an Oromo perspective, the vision for Ethiopia can be distilled into two key alternatives: Oromia and/or Oropia. This vision suggests three potential paths forward:
- The establishment of an independent Oromia, free from the influence of other ethnic groups,
- The creation of Oromia within Oropia, a multinational federation where the Oromos lead but coexist with other groups in a federal structure,
- A geographically based federation in which Oromic leadership dominates, without necessarily the full autonomy of Oromia.
Historically, the politics of Amhara elites have been driven by the idea of “upward [deleted]”—a process that has sought to turn Ethiopia into an Amharic-speaking, Amhara-dominated nation. This process dates back to the reign of Yekuno Amlak in 1270 and has consistently involved the assimilation of other ethnic groups into the Amhara fold. This policy has been so successful that about 90% of Agaws, 40% of Oromos, and many others have gradually lost their original cultural identities and have been absorbed into Amhara society. This dominance of the Amhara culture, language, and politics has effectively resulted in a situation akin to Amapia, where Amharic is the de facto national language and Amhara culture dominates Ethiopia’s political landscape.
In contrast, Oromo elites have historically resisted this process of [deleted] and have envisioned the creation of an independent Oromia. Their goal is to liberate the Afàn Oromô-speaking regions, excluding those areas that have already been heavily influenced by Amharic, such as North Shoa, East Wollo, South Gojjam, parts of Gondar, and South Tigray. This movement for the liberation of Oromia is seen as a form of “downward [deleted]”—a rejection of the Amharic-centric model and a push for greater cultural and political autonomy.
One possible solution to this tension is a role reversal between the Amhara and Oromo elites. Oromos could consider a strategy of upward [deleted], promoting Afàn Oromô to the status of the primary federal language. Such a shift could gradually lead to the re-Oromization of Ethiopia, transforming the country into Orompia or Oropia, and effectively dismantling the existing Amharic-dominated Amarpia. Under this framework, Orompia and Oropia would offer a more inclusive and equitable political structure, benefiting all ethnic groups, rather than maintaining the status quo of Amharic dominance.
This shift, however, could provoke strong resistance from Amhara elites, who may resort to downward [deleted] tactics to resist an Oromic-led transformation. They may push for the creation of an independent Amaria, following the logic of ethnic federalism or outright secession. Such a shift could mirror their previous opposition to the dismantling of regional special forces, and might soon lead them to become the most vocal advocates for ethnic federalism or separation from the Ethiopian state.
Ethiopian politics, especially within the Oromo context, stands at a crossroads. The Prosperity Party, led by Dr. Abiy Ahmed, which has claimed to represent all ethnic groups, is losing its political grip. Two competing visions are now emerging:
- Confederalists, led by the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), who aim to establish a fully autonomous Oromia and Tigray.
- Geo-federalists, led by Ezema and NaMA, who seek to manipulate Abiy Ahmed’s government to preserve Ethiopia’s unity through a geographically based federation.
These two forces are effectively at war, with the confederalists pushing for the establishment of an independent Oromia, while Abiy Ahmed’s intentions remain unclear. If his goal is to establish a geo-federation dominated by Amharic, Oromos should reject this approach. However, if his aim is to create a geo-federation led by Oromic influence, then such a structure—essentially Oropia—could be considered a positive step forward for the Oromo cause.
The political landscape in Ethiopia has evolved dramatically. Both the Tigrayan and Amhara hegemonists have lost their battle for dominance in Addis Ababa, and Dr. Abiy is unlikely to empower the old guard. Though his Prosperity Party still leans towards Amharic-speaking elites, it is more supportive of Oromo culture and language than either the Derg (Amhara) or the Woyane (Tigray) regimes were.
It is likely only a matter of time before the Oromo Liberation Front’s ideology of bilisummà (freedom) infiltrates the Prosperity Party, gradually transforming it into a pro-Oromic entity. Whether through the current Oromo People’s Party (OPP) or a future Oromo Republican Party (ORP), the bilisummà mindset will eventually consolidate Oromo power in Addis Ababa, balancing the influence of both the Amhara and Tigray elites.
This debate was first raised by Gadaa.com, which called for reflection on the future of Oromia. It was in this context that I began my engagement in the political discourse, noticing the internal divisions within the OLF—particularly between the Galàsa group, which advocated for full independence, and the Dawud group, which favored self-determination within Ethiopia due to the geopolitical realities.
In my view, the ultimate goal has remained consistent throughout these debates—only the strategy and approach have evolved. The OLF mindset, whether in the OLF, the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), or other factions, generally follows a three-phase process:
- Limited cultural autonomy within Amarpia, a goal largely achieved.
- Full cultural, economic, and political autonomy within Orompia.
- A final decision, via referendum, on the form of sovereignty—either full independence (Oromia), a federal structure (Orompia), or integration into a geo-federation (Oropia).
All Oromo parties share the overarching goal of freedom (Tullü Dàlattī), which can be realized in one of three ways:
- An independent Oromia (as envisioned by Galàsà),
- A federal Orompia (as proposed by Léncô),
- An integrative Oropia (supported by Haile FIDA).
These various approaches are not inherently contradictory but reflect different strategic preferences. The liberation journey of the Oromo people can thus be seen as a path from colonization (symbolized by Djibouti), through independence (embodied by Dire Dawa), to a federal system (represented by Adama), and finally to an integrative union (symbolized by Finfinne).
The time has come for Oromo organizations to unite and consolidate their efforts. The goal for the coming decade must be unity, strategic cooperation, and the eventual realization of autonomy for Oromia. A referendum will be the ultimate mechanism for determining whether Oromia should pursue full independence, join a federal Ethiopia, or integrate into a supranational union of free nations.
The future of Ethiopia hinges on the recognition of the rights of all nations to self-determination, free from the mentality of colonization. Our freedom, and the freedom of all peoples within Ethiopia, are the prerequisites for any future union. Let us move forward with unity and purpose, working toward a brighter and more inclusive future for all.
Galatôma!
Read more: https://orompia.wordpress.com/2023/04/1 ... or-oropia/