The 2018 Transfer of Power in Ethiopia: From Habesha Authoritarianism to Hybrid Rule, Not Yet to Horomo Democracy
Posted: 05 Jan 2026, 16:25
The 2018 Transfer of Power in Ethiopia: From Habesha Authoritarianism to Hybrid Rule, Not Yet to Horomo Democracy
By Fayyis Oromia*
Introduction
The political transition that occurred in Ethiopia in 2018 was widely perceived as a historic shift in power from Habesha elites to Oromo elites, following decades of resistance led by the Qérrô movement and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). However, a closer examination reveals that this transition did not result in the empowerment of genuinely Oromo-centered democratic forces. Instead, power shifted from Habesha-dominated authoritarian elites to a hybrid ruling group that diluted, rather than fulfilled, Oromo national aspirations.
This article argues that the 2018 change represented a transfer of authority from Habeshanized Oromo elites to hybridized Oromo elites, rather than to Horomonized Oromo elites who are fully committed to Oromo self-determination and democratic governance.
Conceptual Clarification: Habesha, Hybrid, and Horomo Elites
For analytical clarity, Oromo elites can be categorized into three broad ideological orientations:
- Habesha Elites: These elites are fundamentally opposed to Oromo national interests and have historically upheld centralized, Amharic-dominated state structures.
- Hybrid Elites: These actors selectively accommodate Oromo interests but ultimately prioritize the preservation of Amharic political and cultural dominance.
- Horomo Elites: These elites are fully committed to Oromo self-determination, cultural revival, linguistic equality, and democratic transformation.
The central claim of this article is that Ethiopia has not yet experienced a transition from hybrid rule to Horomo democratic leadership. Such a transition remains an unfulfilled aspiration.
Historical Context: From Habesha Authoritarianism to Hybrid Governance
For approximately 150 years, Ethiopia was governed by Habesha-centered authoritarian regimes. The political change in 2018 ended this long-standing monopoly but did not establish a genuinely democratic or Oromo-centered order. Over the past seven years, the state has been governed by a regime that presents itself as Oromo-led while remaining structurally and ideologically aligned with Amharic dominance.
This hybrid regime—led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed—has proven deeply deceptive to many Oromo constituencies. Notably, segments of the Oromo nationalist movement, including individuals associated with the OLF, initially supported the transition, only to later recognize its limitations.
Language, Power, and Cultural Hierarchy
One of the clearest indicators of the hybrid nature of the current regime is its language policy. Despite the demographic and political significance of Oromo speakers, the Prosperity Party continues to prioritize Amharic as the primary working language of the federal state.
Oromic (Afaan Oromo), however, has a legitimate claim to serve as the principal working language of federal institutions, including the executive, legislature, judiciary, military, and security apparatus. The failure to elevate Oromic reflects the regime’s commitment to preserving entrenched hierarchies rather than dismantling them.
A future democratic administration led by genuine Oromo nationalists would be expected to address this structural imbalance as part of a broader project of political transformation.
Competing Visions of Ethiopia’s Political Future
Ethiopia is undergoing a profound historical transition. Three broad state forms can be identified across time:
- Past Ethiopia (“Amapia”): An Amharic-dominated geographic federation, now defunct.
- Present Ethiopia (“Amarpia”): An Amharic-dominated ethnic federation, currently in decline.
- Future Ethiopia: Either Orompia (an Oromic-led ethnic federation), or Oropia (an Oromic-led geographic federation).
During this transition, a temporary hybrid arrangement—resembling the current Amarpian structure—may persist. Over time, however, this form is likely to evolve toward a political order defined by Oromo language, culture, and leadership.
Resistance from Amhara elites to the growing influence of Oromic reflects their recognition of this historical shift.
Ideological Currents Among Oromo Elites
Contemporary Oromo elites can be broadly grouped into three ideological tendencies:
- Amapianists: Oromo elites within the Prosperity Party who support continued Amharic dominance.
- Ethiopianists: Oromo elites within the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) who advocate for a democratic, multicultural federation—a “rainbow” Ethiopia.
- Oropianists: Oromo elites within the OLF who view the transformation toward an Oromic-led political order as inevitable.
Cooperation between Oropianists in the OLF and OFC against the current authoritarian regime is both promising and necessary. The ruling coalition under Abiy Ahmed seeks to preserve Amharic hegemony, perpetuating a historical pattern in which Oromo rulers served non-Oromo political interests.
The Question of Statehood: Oromia and Ethiopia
The OLF envisions the establishment of a Republic of Oromia following the dismantling of the Amhara-dominated imperial legacy. The OFC, by contrast, seeks to democratize Ethiopia through the national application of a modernized Gadà system, with Oromic as the primary federal working language.
A democratized Ethiopia structured along these lines would, in practice, constitute an inclusive form of Orompia—potentially broader than an independent Oromian republic.
Addressing the Perceived Gridlock in the Oromo Liberation Movement
Divisions within the Oromo liberation movement are often framed as an irreconcilable ideological split between:
- Those who seek to democratize Ethiopia, and
- Those who seek to decolonize Oromia through independence.
This article argues that such divisions are largely perceptual rather than substantive. The true ideological conflict lies between Oromo nationalists, broadly defined, and Amarianists who reject even meaningful Oromo autonomy.
Both Oromo federalists and Oromo separatists share a common, non-negotiable objective: self-determination.
A Framework for Unity and Decision-Making
Self-determination can produce multiple legitimate outcomes, all of which must be decided democratically through referendum:
- Genuine autonomy within Ethiopia
- Full independence as a sovereign Oromia
- A voluntary union of free peoples—autonomous or independent
While freedom and sovereignty are essential across all scenarios, specific institutional arrangements must be chosen collectively. Evidence suggests that many Oromo citizens may ultimately favor independence or a union of independent nations over limited autonomy within an Amarpian framework.
Conclusion: Toward Bilisummaa
An emerging consensus among Oromo elites recognizes that gaining political power in Finfinné, institutionalizing the Gadà system, and elevating Oromic at the federal level could transform Ethiopia into a democratic Oropia. Such an outcome may prove more advantageous than immediate secession.
Recent developments suggest that even the OLF increasingly prioritizes democratic transformation over immediate independence, making strategic cooperation with the OFC both feasible and necessary. Together, these forces can dismantle the existing authoritarian order and enable the Oromo people to determine their political future freely.
True bilisummaa—whether through a sovereign Oromia or a democratized, Oromic-led Ethiopia—remains the shared and attainable goal.
Galatômà.
Read more: https://orompia.wordpress.com/2017/05/2 ... -struggle/
By Fayyis Oromia*
Introduction
The political transition that occurred in Ethiopia in 2018 was widely perceived as a historic shift in power from Habesha elites to Oromo elites, following decades of resistance led by the Qérrô movement and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). However, a closer examination reveals that this transition did not result in the empowerment of genuinely Oromo-centered democratic forces. Instead, power shifted from Habesha-dominated authoritarian elites to a hybrid ruling group that diluted, rather than fulfilled, Oromo national aspirations.
This article argues that the 2018 change represented a transfer of authority from Habeshanized Oromo elites to hybridized Oromo elites, rather than to Horomonized Oromo elites who are fully committed to Oromo self-determination and democratic governance.
Conceptual Clarification: Habesha, Hybrid, and Horomo Elites
For analytical clarity, Oromo elites can be categorized into three broad ideological orientations:
- Habesha Elites: These elites are fundamentally opposed to Oromo national interests and have historically upheld centralized, Amharic-dominated state structures.
- Hybrid Elites: These actors selectively accommodate Oromo interests but ultimately prioritize the preservation of Amharic political and cultural dominance.
- Horomo Elites: These elites are fully committed to Oromo self-determination, cultural revival, linguistic equality, and democratic transformation.
The central claim of this article is that Ethiopia has not yet experienced a transition from hybrid rule to Horomo democratic leadership. Such a transition remains an unfulfilled aspiration.
Historical Context: From Habesha Authoritarianism to Hybrid Governance
For approximately 150 years, Ethiopia was governed by Habesha-centered authoritarian regimes. The political change in 2018 ended this long-standing monopoly but did not establish a genuinely democratic or Oromo-centered order. Over the past seven years, the state has been governed by a regime that presents itself as Oromo-led while remaining structurally and ideologically aligned with Amharic dominance.
This hybrid regime—led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed—has proven deeply deceptive to many Oromo constituencies. Notably, segments of the Oromo nationalist movement, including individuals associated with the OLF, initially supported the transition, only to later recognize its limitations.
Language, Power, and Cultural Hierarchy
One of the clearest indicators of the hybrid nature of the current regime is its language policy. Despite the demographic and political significance of Oromo speakers, the Prosperity Party continues to prioritize Amharic as the primary working language of the federal state.
Oromic (Afaan Oromo), however, has a legitimate claim to serve as the principal working language of federal institutions, including the executive, legislature, judiciary, military, and security apparatus. The failure to elevate Oromic reflects the regime’s commitment to preserving entrenched hierarchies rather than dismantling them.
A future democratic administration led by genuine Oromo nationalists would be expected to address this structural imbalance as part of a broader project of political transformation.
Competing Visions of Ethiopia’s Political Future
Ethiopia is undergoing a profound historical transition. Three broad state forms can be identified across time:
- Past Ethiopia (“Amapia”): An Amharic-dominated geographic federation, now defunct.
- Present Ethiopia (“Amarpia”): An Amharic-dominated ethnic federation, currently in decline.
- Future Ethiopia: Either Orompia (an Oromic-led ethnic federation), or Oropia (an Oromic-led geographic federation).
During this transition, a temporary hybrid arrangement—resembling the current Amarpian structure—may persist. Over time, however, this form is likely to evolve toward a political order defined by Oromo language, culture, and leadership.
Resistance from Amhara elites to the growing influence of Oromic reflects their recognition of this historical shift.
Ideological Currents Among Oromo Elites
Contemporary Oromo elites can be broadly grouped into three ideological tendencies:
- Amapianists: Oromo elites within the Prosperity Party who support continued Amharic dominance.
- Ethiopianists: Oromo elites within the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) who advocate for a democratic, multicultural federation—a “rainbow” Ethiopia.
- Oropianists: Oromo elites within the OLF who view the transformation toward an Oromic-led political order as inevitable.
Cooperation between Oropianists in the OLF and OFC against the current authoritarian regime is both promising and necessary. The ruling coalition under Abiy Ahmed seeks to preserve Amharic hegemony, perpetuating a historical pattern in which Oromo rulers served non-Oromo political interests.
The Question of Statehood: Oromia and Ethiopia
The OLF envisions the establishment of a Republic of Oromia following the dismantling of the Amhara-dominated imperial legacy. The OFC, by contrast, seeks to democratize Ethiopia through the national application of a modernized Gadà system, with Oromic as the primary federal working language.
A democratized Ethiopia structured along these lines would, in practice, constitute an inclusive form of Orompia—potentially broader than an independent Oromian republic.
Addressing the Perceived Gridlock in the Oromo Liberation Movement
Divisions within the Oromo liberation movement are often framed as an irreconcilable ideological split between:
- Those who seek to democratize Ethiopia, and
- Those who seek to decolonize Oromia through independence.
This article argues that such divisions are largely perceptual rather than substantive. The true ideological conflict lies between Oromo nationalists, broadly defined, and Amarianists who reject even meaningful Oromo autonomy.
Both Oromo federalists and Oromo separatists share a common, non-negotiable objective: self-determination.
A Framework for Unity and Decision-Making
Self-determination can produce multiple legitimate outcomes, all of which must be decided democratically through referendum:
- Genuine autonomy within Ethiopia
- Full independence as a sovereign Oromia
- A voluntary union of free peoples—autonomous or independent
While freedom and sovereignty are essential across all scenarios, specific institutional arrangements must be chosen collectively. Evidence suggests that many Oromo citizens may ultimately favor independence or a union of independent nations over limited autonomy within an Amarpian framework.
Conclusion: Toward Bilisummaa
An emerging consensus among Oromo elites recognizes that gaining political power in Finfinné, institutionalizing the Gadà system, and elevating Oromic at the federal level could transform Ethiopia into a democratic Oropia. Such an outcome may prove more advantageous than immediate secession.
Recent developments suggest that even the OLF increasingly prioritizes democratic transformation over immediate independence, making strategic cooperation with the OFC both feasible and necessary. Together, these forces can dismantle the existing authoritarian order and enable the Oromo people to determine their political future freely.
True bilisummaa—whether through a sovereign Oromia or a democratized, Oromic-led Ethiopia—remains the shared and attainable goal.
Galatômà.
Read more: https://orompia.wordpress.com/2017/05/2 ... -struggle/