Ethiopia Ranked 4th in a just released annual Emergency Watchlist by the International Rescue Committee’s (IRC)
Posted: 17 Dec 2025, 10:41
All that feverish fanfare about Modi's visit now makes sense. It was to hide this devastating assessment that Ethiopia is now a most desperate place only better than Sudan, Occupied Palestine and South Sudan.
https://www.rescue.org/watchlist
The International Rescue Committee’s (IRC) annual Emergency Watchlist highlights the 20 countries most at risk of new or worsened humanitarian emergencies. For more than a decade, this report has helped the IRC prepare for emergencies and deliver lifesaving services, accurately predicting 85-95 percent of the worst humanitarian deteriorations annually.
The 2026 Watchlist sounds the alarm on a dangerous divergence: as humanitarian crises surge, global support is collapsing. The 20 countries on the Watchlist are home to just 12 percent of the world's population but account for 89 percent of people in humanitarian need, and nearly 50 percent of those in extreme poverty.
4. Ethiopia: Risk of major conflict grows as global flashpoints intensify
Interconnected domestic and regional dynamics are driving instability across northern Ethiopia that could tilt into widescale conflict. In addition, fighting perpetuated by armed groups continues to displace civilians. Climate shocks like droughts and floods worsen the humanitarian situation. With significant aid cuts, including a $387 million reduction from USAID in 2025, humanitarian agencies are ill-equipped to handle these overlapping crises.
What risks will Ethiopia face in 2026?
Risk of renewed conflict threatens civilians: Tensions between the federal government, Eritrean forces, Tigrayan forces and Amhara groups are destabilizing a fragile peace deal from 2022. Ethiopia’s Tigray region has experienced limited reconstruction and nearly 800,000 people are currently displaced and living in dire conditions.
Central Oromia sees widespread displacement: Clashes between armed groups and government forces in Ethiopia’s Oromia state displaced over 288,000 people in 2025. Violence is destroying livelihoods, driving severe child malnutrition and forcing families to flee. Oromia’s central role in Ethiopia’s economy means instability also disrupts trade and humanitarian access across the country.
Climate shocks worsen hunger and disease: La Niña is expected to bring flooding to the north and drought to the south in 2026. Flooding could destroy crops, worsen cholera outbreaks and increase displacement, while drought threatens harvests and livestock in pastoral areas.
Aid cuts exacerbate the crisis: The effects of the U.S. government slashing $387 million in funding to Ethiopia in 2025 will continue to be felt, cutting food distributions for millions of people and threatening critical malnutrition treatment for 650,000 women and children.
How does the IRC support Ethiopia?
The IRC began its operations in Ethiopia in 2000, providing support to refugees from neighboring countries as well as Ethiopians living in crisis-affected and underserved communities. The country continues to face recurring challenges, including conflict, natural hazards and climatic shocks, all of which disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. We respond through multisectoral programming in health and nutrition, child protection, education, women’s protection and empowerment, economic recovery and development and environmental health.
https://www.rescue.org/watchlist
The International Rescue Committee’s (IRC) annual Emergency Watchlist highlights the 20 countries most at risk of new or worsened humanitarian emergencies. For more than a decade, this report has helped the IRC prepare for emergencies and deliver lifesaving services, accurately predicting 85-95 percent of the worst humanitarian deteriorations annually.
The 2026 Watchlist sounds the alarm on a dangerous divergence: as humanitarian crises surge, global support is collapsing. The 20 countries on the Watchlist are home to just 12 percent of the world's population but account for 89 percent of people in humanitarian need, and nearly 50 percent of those in extreme poverty.
4. Ethiopia: Risk of major conflict grows as global flashpoints intensify
Interconnected domestic and regional dynamics are driving instability across northern Ethiopia that could tilt into widescale conflict. In addition, fighting perpetuated by armed groups continues to displace civilians. Climate shocks like droughts and floods worsen the humanitarian situation. With significant aid cuts, including a $387 million reduction from USAID in 2025, humanitarian agencies are ill-equipped to handle these overlapping crises.
What risks will Ethiopia face in 2026?
Risk of renewed conflict threatens civilians: Tensions between the federal government, Eritrean forces, Tigrayan forces and Amhara groups are destabilizing a fragile peace deal from 2022. Ethiopia’s Tigray region has experienced limited reconstruction and nearly 800,000 people are currently displaced and living in dire conditions.
Central Oromia sees widespread displacement: Clashes between armed groups and government forces in Ethiopia’s Oromia state displaced over 288,000 people in 2025. Violence is destroying livelihoods, driving severe child malnutrition and forcing families to flee. Oromia’s central role in Ethiopia’s economy means instability also disrupts trade and humanitarian access across the country.
Climate shocks worsen hunger and disease: La Niña is expected to bring flooding to the north and drought to the south in 2026. Flooding could destroy crops, worsen cholera outbreaks and increase displacement, while drought threatens harvests and livestock in pastoral areas.
Aid cuts exacerbate the crisis: The effects of the U.S. government slashing $387 million in funding to Ethiopia in 2025 will continue to be felt, cutting food distributions for millions of people and threatening critical malnutrition treatment for 650,000 women and children.
How does the IRC support Ethiopia?
The IRC began its operations in Ethiopia in 2000, providing support to refugees from neighboring countries as well as Ethiopians living in crisis-affected and underserved communities. The country continues to face recurring challenges, including conflict, natural hazards and climatic shocks, all of which disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. We respond through multisectoral programming in health and nutrition, child protection, education, women’s protection and empowerment, economic recovery and development and environmental health.
