Mereja.Forum

Fascinating interview. I had to update the title, sorry about that

Here's an AI summary from NoteGPT. They have covered a lot of topics in 1 and half hrs.


Summary of Video Content: “The Manufacturer of War: Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa”

[00:00 → 01:54] Introduction and Context

The podcast begins amidst the fragile post-war situation in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, five years after the conflict started and three years since the Pretoria Agreement aimed to end it.
Recent tensions are highlighted by a reported attack on six villages in Ethiopia’s Afar region allegedly by Tigrayan forces, which has not been independently corroborated.
The episode focuses on the “manufacturer of war” — how narratives about war’s inevitability, strategy, and legitimacy are constructed and contested.
Key questions posed include:
Why has war become normalized or expected?
Who benefits from the narrative of war inevitability?
How do intellectual and media circles shape perceptions of Tigray and its leadership?
Is there space for a non-military future for Tigray and the wider Horn of Africa?

[01:54 → 06:48] Early Reflections on War Narratives and Allegations

Allegations of Tigrayan forces attacking Afar villages are interpreted within a broader narrative framing a return to war as inevitable.
Former Ethiopian Foreign Minister, Gedion Tumo, and others have framed TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front) as belligerent, pushed by international “coddling,” suggesting a looming necessity for military action.
There is clear concern over the desire for war, though the inevitability of war remains debatable.
The war narrative is part of a strategic political discourse, used to justify potential military measures.

[06:48 → 11:14] The Problematic Framing of War Inevitability

Analyzing writings by figures like General Zadan, the inevitability of war is critiqued as a “wolf in sheep’s clothing”—disguised as a call for peace but signaling unavoidable conflict.
The discourse places Tigray’s geography and history as central to conflict, but the interviewee argues the real issue is elite incompetence and greed driving proxy conflicts.
Avoiding war depends largely on the political will of elites.
There is some hope in calls for negotiations before conflict escalates, but international peace efforts are decoupled from Ethiopia’s internal political processes, limiting effectiveness.

[11:14 → 17:59] Ethics of Forecasting War and Political Economy

The ethics of forecasting war are questioned: media and political actors may unintentionally incentivize conflict by normalizing war narratives.
Labeling Tigray as a proxy force serves political utility for competing factions.
The broader context of neoliberalism and “structural adjustment 2.0” across Africa fuels widespread unrest, protests, and violence as neoliberal policies exacerbate inequality and poverty.
The interview stresses that structural economic issues—such as rights to life, education, health, and representation—must be addressed to foster peace.
The rise of armed groups and worsening socio-economic conditions are tied to these global economic trends, not just local politics.

[17:59 → 24:15] The Role of Leadership and Global Right-Wing Populism

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration is part of a continent-wide trend of right-wing populism and neoliberal austerity.
The interview highlights religious and eschatological justifications within Abiy’s leadership, where violence is framed as divinely sanctioned, allowing for mass casualties to be rationalized.
Connections are drawn between Ethiopia’s political dynamics and global far-right movements, including aspects of urban “sanitization” and authoritarian governance.
The interview critiques reliance on “big man” politics and warns that ideological failures are beyond any one leader’s control but reflect systemic global economic forces.

[24:15 → 32:10] Political Economy of Resource Extraction and War

The war in Tigray is closely linked to resource extraction, particularly gold, which is controlled and contested by elites and militias.
The collapse of political infrastructure in Tigray facilitated resource plunder, with parallels in other Ethiopian regions.
Neoliberal policies have hollowed out the state’s service functions, undermining governance and social protections.
Property rights have been violated systematically, including violent takeovers of embassies and land, pointing to lawlessness incentivizing conflict.
The role of foreign corporations, notably Canadian mining companies and UAE-linked firms, implicates international actors in the conflict economy.
Gold flows have shifted geographically but generally end up in Dubai, highlighting the global dimension of resource exploitation.

[32:10 → 40:52] Neoliberalism, Oligarchy, and Normalization of Violence

Extreme poverty has increased significantly in Ethiopia and globally during the neoliberal era.
The period is marked by a welfare system benefiting oligarchs while extracting wealth from the poor.
Neo-liberal austerity policies have destabilized nations worldwide, sometimes culminating in violence, unrest, and political fragmentation.
The interview critiques intellectual justifications for violence that portray genocide and civil conflict as “acceptable” outcomes of democratization—a dangerous and dehumanizing narrative.
Reference is made to media portrayals of Ethiopian leadership as typical of “African despots,” normalizing mass death as the price of progress.

[40:52 → 49:54] Militarization and Political Fragmentation in Tigray

The militarization of Tigrayan politics is not seen as inevitable but as a result of internal factionalism, especially the role of figures like Gacho Reda who pushed for military involvement in political processes.
This militarization deepened divisions within the TPLF and the broader Tigray Defense Forces (TDF).
The collapse of democratic governance and elections in Tigray has led to fear and reluctance to hold new elections, as previous elections were punished by violence and genocide.
Demilitarization and constitutional normalization require free and fair elections and the restoration of the relationship between Tigray and the federal government.
The Pretoria Agreement’s legitimacy is contested, with federal leaders disputing its scope and the role of the UN and international institutions in peace processes.

[49:54 → 01:02:48] Party-State-Military Blurring and Electoral Challenges

There is a blurring of lines between party, state, and military in Ethiopia, particularly within the Prosperity Party and the federal government.
Calls from some Tigrayan factions for separation of party and state face legal and political obstacles due to agreements signed in Pretoria.
Neoliberal reforms historically have not led to greater democracy or freedom; empirical evidence shows these reforms often reinforce authoritarianism.
Some opposition factions advocate for transitional governments or all-inclusive arrangements bypassing elections, which risks perpetuating militarized governance without consent.
The 1992 Tigray local elections are cited as a historical example where elections contributed to state-building, suggesting lessons for future electoral processes.
Challenges include who can organize credible elections in a conflict-affected region and how to ensure electoral institutions are independent and non-partisan.

[01:02:48 → 01:07:04] Militarized Populism and Continued Conflict Risks

Mid-ranking military officers with armed backgrounds are becoming political power brokers, risking further warlordism and resource plunder.
Unless elections and democratic processes are restored, Tigray risks remaining trapped in a cycle of militarized exceptionalism.
The federal government’s persistence in militarization exacerbates tensions with Eritrea and Afar, complicating peace prospects.
The rise of militia groups like the Tigray People’s Front (TPF), modeled after UAE-backed militias, signals a continuation of violence under different guises.

[01:07:04 → 01:14:39] Regional Geopolitics: Afar, Eritrea, and Maritime Access

The Afar region is increasingly strategically relevant for conflicts over Ethiopia’s access to the sea, potentially more so than Tigray.
Afar borders Eritrea, Tigray, and Amhara regions, making it a complex theater for alliances and armed groups.
Regional alliances are shifting, with Afar potentially playing a major role in future conflicts or peace processes.
There is a risk that Tigray could be drawn into wider regional conflicts due to these shifting dynamics.
Ethiopia’s ambitions for maritime access involve not just commercial interests but also military/naval strategic goals.
Prime Minister Abiy has publicly stated Ethiopia has been building a navy for years, signaling intentions beyond mere economic access.

[01:14:39 → 01:18:46] Drivers of War and Political Economy Pressures

Abiy’s government may prefer war as a means to maintain power by building a populist base or postponing elections.
War serves as a tool to manage internal dissent and elite competition.
Economic pressures to keep the military and generals “sweet” incentivize ongoing conflict.
On the Tigrayan side, internal military dissent also fuels conflict dynamics.
The interview stresses the importance of refusing the war agenda and focusing on political and economic reforms.
Key demands include the right to life, education, health, political representation, and democratic governance.

[01:18:46 → 01:27:25] Hope for a Non-Military Future and Final Reflections

The guest expresses hope for a non-military future for Tigray and the Horn of Africa, emphasizing the importance of organizing around better political principles.
There is a call to hold governments and international backers accountable for supporting violent regimes.
The discussion stresses the necessity of understanding and addressing the broader geopolitical and political economy factors underpinning conflict.
The episode closes with a hopeful tone, advocating for peace, democracy, and social justice as attainable goals despite current challenges.

Key Insights

War in Tigray is not inevitable but politically incentivized by elites and shaped by neoliberal economic policies.
Narratives of inevitability serve political ends, often silencing alternative futures.
The political economy of resource extraction, especially gold, is central to conflict dynamics.
Militarization of politics in Tigray and Ethiopia at large is deeply intertwined with failed governance and elite power struggles.
The Afar region plays a critical but under-analyzed role in regional security and conflict.
Democratic elections and constitutional normalization are crucial to breaking cycles of violence.
International actors and the global economic system are complicit in perpetuating conflict through economic and political support.
Hope exists for a peaceful future but requires sustained political will and grassroots mobilization.

Quantitative Data Summary

Data Point Value/Description
Years since Tigray war began 5 years
Years since Pretoria Agreement signed 3 years
Reported attack on six villages in Afar November 5, 2023 (unconfirmed)
Increase in extreme poverty (World Bank) 40-43% increase anticipated
Estimated war casualties (cited as example) 600,000 to 1 million (discussed contextually)
Glossary of Key Terms
Term Definition
TPLF Tigray People’s Liberation Front, dominant political/military group in Tigray region
TDF Tigray Defense Forces, armed group opposed to federal government
Pretoria Agreement 2021 peace accord aimed at ending conflict between Ethiopian federal government and TPLF
Neoliberalism Economic policy model favoring free markets, privatization, and reduced government spending
Structural Adjustment 2.0 Renewed wave of neoliberal reforms imposed on African countries in the 2020s
Proxy Force Armed group supported by external powers to advance their interests
Prosperity Party Ethiopian ruling party led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed
RSF Rapid Support Forces, UAE-backed militias in Africa
Afar Region Ethiopian regional state bordering Eritrea, Tigray, and Amhara
Political Economy Study of economic factors influencing political actions and power structures
Conclusion
This episode presents a nuanced, critical examination of the Ethiopian conflict in the Horn of Africa, emphasizing the manufacturing of war narratives, the role of neoliberal economic policies, and elite power struggles in prolonging violence. It challenges common assumptions about the inevitability of conflict and highlights the importance of democratic processes, political accountability, and addressing underlying economic grievances. The geopolitics of the Afar region and the economic interests of external actors, especially in resource extraction, are crucial yet often overlooked components of the crisis. Ultimately, the conversation underscores the urgent need for inclusive peacebuilding, transparent governance, and international accountability to break cycles of war and foster a hopeful future for Tigray and the Horn of Africa.

Smart Summary

Misraq wrote: ↑

11 Nov 2025, 20:08

Eden, please summarize this discussion between lemicho & legesse for thise of us who work in Wall Street and don't really have time. I will be in Rochester for a weekend gateway if you want to grab coffee together.

I can get you a snow clearing job in Canada. I believe every Ethiopian should have work.

It can be labeled as Abiye Ahmed’s Clown Show.

- 3 years ago Abiye made a secret deal with the TPLF in Pretoria behind the Amharas against the Amharas hoping Tigray and Amhara will eat each other. The old dog TPLF knows about the dirty game and refuses to go along.
-Abiye instructed Getachew to form a rebel group against the TPLF based in Afar.
-The TPLF went after the Getcho rebel group in Afar
-PP screamed Egypt.
Civil war is Abiye Ahmed’s project. It is PP that is helping Egypt.

A [deleted] show.