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[fasil1235]

How many Eritreans leave Eritrea annually and why do they leave their country at a higher percentage than other nations

Ai responds

Annual Emigration from Eritrea
Eritrea experiences significant net emigration, with estimates varying by source due to the country’s limited official data and the clandestine nature of many departures. Based on United Nations and World Bank data:

• Recent Annual Figures (2020–2024): Net migration (outflow minus inflow) has ranged from -15,000 to -50,000 people per year. For example:
• 2022: Approximately -17,000 net emigrants.
• 2021: Approximately -15,000 net emigrants.
• Earlier in the decade (2015–2020 average): Around

-40,000 per year.
These numbers represent net flows; gross outflows (total leaving) are likely higher, as some immigration occurs (e.g., returns or family reunifications). New refugee arrivals tracked by UNHCR in neighboring countries like Ethiopia were about 8,700 in 2023 and 6,700 in 2024 (up to mid-year), but this undercounts total emigration, as many head to Sudan, Europe, or beyond.


• Net Migration Rate: Eritrea’s rate is -10.1 migrants per 1,000 population (2022 estimate), meaning about 1% of the population leaves annually on net.  With a population of roughly 3.7–6 million (estimates vary due to no recent census), this translates to the 15,000–50,000 range above.  

• Total Diaspora and Refugees: Over 683,000 Eritreans are registered as refugees or asylum seekers globally (as of 2024), representing about 12–18% of the population. This includes ~180,000 in Ethiopia, ~126,000 in Sudan, and tens of thousands in Europe and North America.   Emigration peaked in the 2010s (up to -50,000/year), but has slightly declined post-2018 peace with Ethiopia, though outflows remain high.


Why Do Eritreans Leave?

Eritreans primarily flee due to systemic repression under President Isaias Afwerki’s authoritarian regime, in power since independence in 1993. Key drivers include:
1. Indefinite National/Military Service: All Eritreans (men and women) must serve in the military or national service starting at age 18