Dr. Abiy Dismantling Ethnic Federalism Doesn’t Mean Returning to Amapia—It Means Moving Forward to Oropia
There is growing speculation that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may be preparing to dismantle Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism in favor of a geo-federal system. Some unitarist, pro-Amharanet elites—historically opposed to the rights and autonomy of nations and nationalities—are celebrating this shift, mistakenly believing it signals a return to Amharic-dominated Ethiopia, or Amapia. But this is a misreading of history and current political dynamics.
Ethiopia will not revert to the Amapia of Mengistu Hailemariam’s era—a centralized, Amharic-dominated federation. That chapter is closed. Instead, Ethiopia is evolving toward either Lénco Lata’s Orompia—an Oromic-led ethnic federation—or Haile Fida’s Oropia—a geo-federation led by the values and political vision of Oromummà. If Dr. Abiy is indeed leaning toward geo-federalism, this shift will likely empower Oropia rather than restore Amapia.
The Rise of Oromummà: A Political and Cultural Shift
This transformation may be unsettling for those who have long opposed Oromo self-expression. But the rise of Oromummà is rooted in undeniable facts: demographic strength, geographic centrality, and linguistic expansion. The official adoption of Oromic as a federal working language has accelerated the cultural shift that was long suppressed by past regimes. Historically, Amhara monarchs and military dictators marginalized Oromic—even at the local (Qebelé) level—to maintain the dominance of Amharic.
Today, the same anti-Oromo sentiment persists among conservative elites, who oppose the elevation of Oromic and demonize any form of Oromo cultural expression. But their resistance is futile. The linguistic and political center of gravity in Ethiopia is shifting—irrevocably.
A Struggle Between Two Blocs: Domination vs. Democratic Leadership
Ethiopia’s political conflict is becoming increasingly defined by a contest between two major blocs:
Pro-Amharanet forces, seeking to preserve the historical dominance of Amharic and Amhara identity;
Pro-Oromummà forces, advocating for Oromo cultural, linguistic, and political leadership grounded in democratic federalism.
To protect their dominance, Amhara elites have adopted three major strategies:
Overt identity-based movements such as Fanno;
Masked unitarism under the guise of “Ethiopian nationalism,” through parties like Ezema;
Oromo-led facades like the Oromo Prosperity Party (OPP), where leaders such as Abiy Ahmed and Shimelis Abdisa serve as instruments to suppress Oromo aspirations.
These factions have joined forces with the Biltsigina regime to obstruct the growth of Oromummà. Their shared agenda includes:
Preventing Oromic from gaining full federal recognition;
Undermining the status of Finfinne (Addis Ababa) as part of Oromia;
Marginalizing the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF).
Any political or military force aligned with Fanno, Ezema, or EPP is, by default, opposing Oromummà. Conversely, genuine Oromo nationalists and the liberation movements of other historically oppressed nations—such as Tigrayan activists—remain natural allies.
Lessons from Tigray and the Politics of Betrayal
Oromo nationalists supported the Tigrayan resistance during the recent civil war. In turn, some Tigrayan elites are now expressing solidarity with Oromo struggles. This alliance stems from shared historical betrayal: in the early 1990s, Amhara elites aligned with TPLF to suppress the OLF. By 2020, those same elites backed the Prosperity Party to crush the TPLF. Their long-term goal has always been the same: dismantle Oromummà and Tegarunet, restoring Amharanet hegemony.
Prime Minister Abiy’s betrayal of the Oromo people has left Oromo nationalists facing renewed dominance by neo-Naftagna elites. These elites, often masked in Oromo identity, elevate Amharic culture while actively undermining Oromo interests. This internalized oppression has reversed the gains made by the Qérrô youth movement, handing victory to reactionary forces.
The Elephant in the Room: Oromo–Amhara Rivalry
At the core of Ethiopia’s crisis lies the unresolved tension between Oromo and Amhara elites—a conflict the regime exploits to divide and delay change. While both communities dream of a just system, mutual distrust has prevented meaningful collaboration.
Yet, despite deep differences, a joint uprising led by Oromo and supported by other oppressed nations remains Ethiopia’s most viable path to genuine freedom. This is why Amhara conservatives—and their Western backers—fear Oromo mobilization: it directly challenges a system built on centuries of centralization and exclusion.
How the Regime Sustains Itself: Fear-Based Propaganda
The Prosperity Party thrives by weaponizing ethnic fear:
“If the revolution succeeds, Amharas will dominate Oromia.”
“If the revolution succeeds, Oromos will dismantle Ethiopia.”
“If the revolution succeeds, the military will kill civilians.”
“If the revolution succeeds, a Rwandan-style genocide will happen.”
“If the revolution succeeds, civil war is inevitable.”
These scare tactics are designed to paralyze action and preserve authoritarian rule.
From Tyranny to Freedom: A Fork in the Road
Imagine a large letter “Y.”
The stem represents life under the EPP’s tyranny.
The junction symbolizes a shared desire for freedom.
The two arms point toward diverging futures: independence (left) and integration (right).
Oromo and Amhara peoples can walk this path together—up to the junction—and then pursue their distinct futures through democratic means. What matters most now is reaching that point of liberation.
Three Possible Routes to Change:
Armed struggle, pursued by OLA, Fanno, and other fronts;
Mass uprising, attempted by the Qérrô and urban activists;
Electoral struggle, embraced by democratic federalists despite structural disadvantages.
So far, each path has been weakened by repression and lack of international support. However, a coordinated, inclusive, nonviolent movement—unifying historically oppressed peoples—could still unlock the change Ethiopia needs.
The regime will continue to sow division, but revolutionaries on both sides must commit to a common principle: inclusive democracy and the right to self-determination.
Toward a Democratic Resolution
The elites of both Oromo and Amhara blocs must accept a difficult truth: neither can dominate the other indefinitely. Lasting peace requires compromise, realism, and respect for public will.
Let us move together from tyranny to freedom, and from there—peacefully—toward either consensual unity or voluntary separation. The choice must be left to the people, through free and fair referendums. Only by doing so can we avoid repeating the painful paths of Sudan or Yugoslavia.
Like Czechia and Slovakia, Ethiopia’s future can be peaceful—even in separation. But this requires courageous leadership, honest dialogue, and a shared commitment to justice.
Galatôma!
Read more:
https://orompia.wordpress.com/2023/01/0 ... oromummaa/
