Mereja.Forum

Where is Somaliman these days?
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It is my guess that Ethiopia's strong prediction of sea access has to do with game changing possibility.

This Pakistani you tuber is wrong. Ethiopia was being wise to avoid war total disruption resulting from implementation of MOU with Somaliland. Now, Ethiopia can and will form two types of critical relations - the MOU could be legally implemented or Ethiopia and Somaliland form strategic relations short of a navy base. Either ways, Egypt is kicked out of the game and Ethiopia plays decisive roles in the Horn.

Ethiopia lost the momentum if Ethiopia recognized Somaliland independence prior to the implementation of the mou. From a legal point of view they could say we entered an agreement with a sovereign nation. It would hold much water the thing with the mou is Somaliland isn’t a country so if u would go and make a treaty with Somaliland it would have been seen as a u were causing infringement on Somalia sovereignty. Now the momentum is gone it took china turkey and Egypt strong arming Ethiopia telling Ethiopia if they go ahead with the mou they would lose the au seat . That threat alone made Ethiopia back off the turkey declaration were just a way to save face for Ethiopia. Ethiopia was vaguely promised a sea out let for trade but they already had that . The mou gave Ethiopia 50 years ownership ship on 20 km near the bab el mandeb that deal is now gone the Somaliland admin isn’t even

Entertaining it ciiro visited Addis Ababa and said. Is Ethiopia still interrsted in the sea out let Ethiopia said yes . How ever one Somaliland brought up the recognition abiye I am not ready to do that. Because it will upset Somalia and his troops inside Somalia . So there for Ethiopia cannot move forward with the mou the Somaliland leader went back home and said that Ethiopia is a strong ally and we will cooperate in trade and security but the mou as for now is put only hold for the time being . I think. As for now if Somaliland gets recognized from other countries I don’t think they will entertain the mou any more . But I don’t think Somaliland will be recognized by any one these articles seem fake and are just zionist lobby i don’t think the USA wants to divide Somalia nor is the uae willing to do that maybe only Israel

Zack,
If that was possible, I would have been the first to cheer it. But remember, the entire world opposed Ethiopia - UN, AU, EU, Arab League, Turkey (main arms supplier), US (aka IMF) and on and on. Egypt 24/7 365 wants to choke Ethiopia because Egypt is really scared of Ethiopia as an emerging Horn power. A lot of people waste time on Nile issue which is fake. Egypt real fear is Ethiopia becoming a Red sea naval power. And western colonial powers wants Ethiopia to kneel down to their pressure which is against the very grain of Ethiopian psychology.

Notice now the very powers that opposed Ethiopian MOU so strongly are talking about recognition of Somaliland. Now assuming Somaliland achieves her recognition how will it handle the MOU? This depends on the calculation of the Somalilanders and Abiy's plan for Assab. Ethiopia's reclaiming of Assab is the most sustainable straight solution to our sea access problem because Assab is historically Ethiopian land and will have less future costs or complications.

The Djibouti, Awdal, Somaliland corridor will continue to be area of conflict, shifting clan and global struggles. So, it is not an optimum solution for Ethiopia as a permanent Naval and military base. That said, if Somaliland plans for a rapid economic development and military strength, she might decide to implement the MOU and squeez maximum benefits from Ethiopia in terms electric power, water, fertilizer, natural gas, and other economic and military benefits. Then the question becomes will Ethiopia want the deal?

As expected as soon as Somaliland is recognized Djibouti's behavior will change dramatically. Even the Awdal (Adal) Somali clans' behavior will change. At one point in history Adals were Ethiopians living in Harar and want Ethiopia to use Zeila/zyla. Now we have to see what they will choose to do. If I were them, I would join Somaliland and demand Zeila to be developed by Ethiopia and fully used so that they get the benefits just like Djibouti.

In short, recognition of Somaliland brings a lot option and opportunities for Ethiopia on many levels.

The last point is that US and Israel want to guard and patrol those waters all the way to Yemen. Which local country and navy will they choose to assign that task? It is going to be Ethiopia. How will this happen while Ethiopian Navy is built by Russia is the million dollar question! In the short run Israel and US involvement in Somaliland has reduced Turkey's imperial ambitions and her pressure on Ethiopia which is a good thing.

So, the chess game will go on! and, Ethiopia will remain to be one of the players in this game.

Two things Ethiopia wanted a sea it controlled it managed and it owns this is the main focus point for Ethiopia. Somaliland was willing to cede an important part of their land to Ethiopia in exchange for recognition. Ethiopia for what it’s worth the one thing Somaliland wanted Ethiopia couldn’t give them this is the point of contention for Somaliland money and all those other things is are not important china promised them billions in development if they remove the diplomatic office of Taiwan from Hargeisa but they refused this shows u commitment to their cause though I don’t agree with their cause of dismembering the Somali republic I respect their hustle and their committed to their cause . So what ever Ethiopia offers shares electricity all of those will be worthless in the eyes of Somalilanders . Ethiopia cannot give them recognition this will anger hassan it will make sure Ethiopia troops will be removed from Somalia less influence . They will be replaced by Egypt so Ethiopia has to keep Somalia very happy . Other wise we wil go back to 2024. Ethiopia isn’t a powerhouse like Russia that recognise south osethia and akhbazia even though the world said don’t do it or when it took crimea. Ethiopia doesn’t have that diplomatic strength president bixi is old enough to remember haile selassie prestige Ethiopia that was some sort of African powerhouse he then thought this is the same Ethiopia but it isn’t . Awdal is my land it belongs to my clan far and foremost it wouldn’t ever deal with Ethiopia because there is no benefit for both Somaliland and Djibouti and Eritrea it is in their interest to keep Ethiopia land locked adalians are no different then that yes we want to develop our land and no we were not Ethiopians parts of adal was in fact Ethiopia but zeila was in the heart land of the issa harar and zeila were both Somali owned cities it was only when miniliq conquered harar . And the Isas and gadabuursi leaders made deals with Britain to stop miniliq from coming to our lands . Adal and Abyssinia were at war with each other it’s difficult to define what was Ethiopia and what was Adal Somalia because the current borders we have were different

On Eritrea I don’t think assab was historic Ethiopia land it is no different then massawa or keren and massawa the afars of Ethiopia were only conquered in the 1800s by the habeshas before that their land was free . To claim assab u need to wage war are u willing to do that I don’t think u have the man power to strong arm the Eritreans for assab even if u conquered it. The entire international community will boycott and disqualify you. Your best hope to a sea shore was via Somaliland but you blew it I don’t think Somaliland will be recognised but if it becomes recognised there is no point for somalilanders to give u a sea out let because they already got what they wanted. Now they are desperate for recognition but u didn’t capitalize on that. And that is indeed your loss. Of course and their loss and a win for Somali unionist and even a win for Somalis in Ethiopia who want to free sonalinregion from Ethiopia we can’t have Ethiopia on the Red Sea for strategic interest . So let’s see what happens in the future

From outside, it is difficult to know exactly what happened in Ethiopia and Somaliland for the MOU not to be implemented. In my view the level of risk and cost of securing the sea access was too high in terms the possible wars with Somalia, intervention of Egypt, African unity's objection, UN objection, Turkeys arming of Somalia, and Ethiopia being put under international sanction s etc. So, I still hold that Abiy was right in signing the MOU and bringing the issue to international arena with full force (both Somaliland's recognition demands and Ethiopia's sea access demands) and also acting prudently not go against the entire world and fall into the Egyptian Eritrean trap of isolating and destabilizing Ethiopia. In fact, as we speak, Ethiopia's global and diplomatic standing is amazingly strong and favorable - admired by Africa, GERD completed, Egypt checked, Ethiopian economy fastest growing in Africa, (with the exception of Fano, OLA, TPLF regional noise) Ethiopia is by far in her strongest position to secure sea access.

Last, as I said earlier, Somaliland will have to build a nation - a country, economy, army , etc following its recognition as a state. So, Somaliland can use Ethiopian resources and support in that regard. So, I will not be surprised if the MOU is reactivated again in some form or fashion.