Mereja.Forum

[Zmeselo]

Opinion
Abiy Ahmed’s Ethiopia On The brink Of Bankruptcy, Becoming A Failed State

October 20, 2025

Nama Nekemto

https://borkena.com/2025/10/20/abiy-ahm ... tate/?s=09



It has become increasingly clear that a deep sense of apprehension is permeating the national sentiment across Ethiopia. A palpable unease defines daily life for a substantial segment of the population, as they grapple with formidable challenges that profoundly impact their well-being and outlook.

Escalating poverty and economic crisis:

At the forefront of these difficulties are the relentless economic pressures. We are witnessing an alarming escalation in inflationary trends and a continuous surge in the cost of essential goods and services. This economic reality is imposing an immense burden on household finances, making it extraordinarily difficult for countless families to cover their basic necessities and maintain any semblance of financial security. The unpredictable nature of our economic landscape exacerbates these hardships, compelling many to expend extraordinary effort simply to sustain their livelihoods. This deepening struggle among citizens is undeniably a matter of profound and immediate concern.

Lack of constructive dialogue and the free expression:

Beyond the economic sphere, there is a growing perception that platforms for genuine constructive dialogue and the free expression of diverse viewpoints are not consistently afforded the serious consideration they deserve. This perceived limitation on open discourse is problematic, as a healthy society relies on the robust exchange of ideas to navigate complex issues. Furthermore, an unsettling sentiment persists regarding the protection and upholding of fundamental human rights and civil liberties – principles that serve as the bedrock of any just and equitable nation. These widespread feelings of discontent and frustration are not merely isolated incidents but represent critical, systemic issues that demand immediate and comprehensive attention.

Collapsing Security and regional ethnic divisions fostered by the government:

Ongoing observation of the political and security environment in Ethiopia indicates a discernible shift in the government’s regional security and inter-ethnic relations strategies. Intelligence suggests that prior initiatives, reportedly aimed at fostering internal divisions within the Amhara community through the use of local militias and other identified disruptors, have evidently not achieved their intended objectives.

Subsequently, there are emerging and significant allegations that directives have been issued for future military engagements and conflict resolution efforts to be predominantly led by Oromo-speaking forces. Should these reports prove accurate, such a strategic reorientation would undoubtedly raise profound questions regarding the dynamics of ethnic relations, the foundational principle of national unity, and the potential exacerbation of existing communal tensions.

This operational shift, which could be perceived as an intentional alteration of the ethnic composition of security forces deployed in sensitive regions, risks undermining efforts toward reconciliation and fostering greater distrust and fragmentation, rather than promoting cohesion.

Untold, unimaginable military atrocities, causing sufferings among innocent civilians:

There is a growing perception, fueled by various reports and public discourse, that certain governmental actions have inadvertently, or directly, contributed to significant civilian casualties and suffering. Such actions and perceptions, profoundly impact public confidence leading to a fundamental questioning of governance legitimacy.

The enduring efficacy and stability of any governing body are inextricably linked to its capacity to cultivate and sustain the trust of its populace. A pervasive sentiment among citizens that their government no longer reflects their fundamental interests or provides adequate protection can significantly diminish its moral and operational authority, potentially paving the way for profound societal and political realignments.

Armed anti governments forces gaining support and credibility:

Within this context, various non-state actors and popular movements, exemplified by entities such as Fano, are gaining considerable traction. These groups typically articulate narratives centered on societal grievances and a commitment to perceived truths, thereby harnessing popular discontent. Their ascendancy underscores the critical need for inclusive governance that genuinely engages with its citizens and addresses their concerns through legitimate and transparent processes, rather than fostering conditions that empower oppositional forces.

The government shamefully trying to hide its military losses:

A severe humanitarian crisis is reportedly unfolding in Ethiopia, marked by an alarming information alleging that, apart than the hundreds of thousands dead, close to 500,000 soldiers have sustained permanent disabilities as a direct consequence of ongoing conflicts in the past seven years.

Adding to this profound concern are grave allegations that high-ranking military commanders have issued directives for the summary execution and body mutilation captured Fano fighters and the government’s critically wounded soldiers. The purported justification for these horrific acts is the alleged inability of the nation to provide adequate care and resources for those injured personnel. Such actions constitute a profound violation of international humanitarian law and the Geneva Conventions, potentially amounting to grave war crimes.

Further reports specifically allege that these chilling directives originated directly from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, communicated to military generals. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is additionally reported to have expressed a profoundly callous and dehumanizing stance concerning disabled soldiers. His alleged remarks include the assertion that

a soldier who is wounded and cannot return to active duty, by displaying their disability in public and communal spaces, would expose us and tarnish our national reputation.

This alleged perspective represents an egregious affront to fundamental human rights, individual dignity, and the universally accepted ethical standards governing military conduct.

Should these allegations be substantiated, it is imperative for the international community and all relevant human rights organizations to urgently and thoroughly investigate these claims. The honor, care, and well-being of soldiers who have sacrificed so much in service of their mission must be unequivocally upheld and protected, and any violation of these principles must be met with accountability.

Unbearable burden on the daily lives among citizens:

The confluence of unimaginable pressures has demonstrably eroded public confidence and generated widespread hardship across communities. A substantial segment of the citizenry is experiencing escalating socio-economic burdens and a pervasive sense of apprehension, as the pursuit of basic well-being becomes increasingly arduous.

Regrettably, the nation’s capacity to deliver peace, stability, and opportunities for equitable prosperity to its citizens appears severely compromised, leading instead to conditions marked by considerable adversity and humanitarian concern.

In light of these critical circumstances, the imperative for comprehensive and fundamental reforms has reached an unprecedented level of urgency, demanding immediate and decisive action to steer the country towards a path of sustainable peace and development.

Ethiopia is currently confronting a complex array of national challenges, characterized by significant political constraints, severe economic instability, and persistent internal conflicts. These interwoven issues collectively exert immense pressure on the nation’s foundational structures, profoundly impacting the daily lives and long-term prospects of its populace.


Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com

[Zmeselo]

Inventing the Past: Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party and the Myth of Assab

Africanviews

https://africanviews.net/inventing-the- ... -of-assab/

Wednesday, October 22, 2025



Ethiopia’s ruling party is rewriting history to justify a false claim over Eritrea’s Red Sea port.

This is not a strategy — it is a desperate and dangerous trajectory, that risks dragging the war-prone Horn of Africa into another cycle of instability and conflict.

It has become a declared mission of Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party to “revise the narrative” of how Ethiopia lost access to the sea — particularly the port of Assab, one of Eritrea’s two principal ports.

In his now-infamous address to Parliament — an audience reduced to taking notes and applauding on cue — the Prime Minister announced:

We need to revise the history and narrative of how Ethiopia lost its connection to the sea coast, with distinct reference to the port of Assab.

Over the past two years, this revisionist project — the so-called Red Sea quest — has gathered full momentum. Turn on any major Ethiopian TV channel or scroll through state-aligned social media, and you might think Ethiopia faces no greater crisis than its lack of a coastline.

Poverty, inflation, corruption, and civil strife are conveniently pushed aside in favor of a single manufactured obsession: the imagined “right” to Assab.

No international law appears firm enough to restrain this political fantasy. No historical record is too sacred to be rewritten. Almost on a daily basis, Assab is being recast not as Eritrean territory but as an Ethiopian birthright unjustly taken — an ancestral wound awaiting restoration.

Fantasy as Policy

The longer this campaign of distortion continues, the more detached from reality it becomes. Abiy Ahmed seems intent on turning the “Red Sea question” into the defining crusade of his rule — his imagined legacy, the mark of a “great ruler” in Ethiopian history.

Yet while he dreams of lost coastlines, Ethiopia is crumbling within. Every indicator — economic, political, and social — signals deep crisis. Inflation is crushing households. Regional conflicts are tearing the country apart. The state survives through coercion and propaganda. Amid this turmoil, Abiy appears convinced that rewriting history might redeem his collapsing present.

From podiums and televised lectures, he does not even recognize let alone heal the nation’s wounds but to project power through illusion. The Prosperity Party’s propaganda machine keeps spinning, generating slogans and myths to stoke nationalism and distract from failure.

The Core Myths of the Red Sea Narrative

Myth no. 1. “Ethiopia was unjustly stripped of its coastline.”

This falsehood is the cornerstone of the entire narrative. The Prosperity Party portrays the loss of Assab as an international injustice — a wound inflicted by outsiders. In reality, Eritrea’s sovereignty and borders were affirmed by the Eritrea–Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC) under the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, following the 1998–2000 border war. Ethiopia formally accepted these decisions, including the current Prime Minister. To deny them now is not patriotism — it is political deceit.

Myth no. 2. “Ethiopia’s survival depends on owning a port.”

Repeated endlessly in state media, this claim is emotional, not economic. Dozens of landlocked nations — from Switzerland to Rwanda to Botswana — thrive through trade, cooperation, and governance, not conquest. Ethiopia’s challenge is not its geography, but its governance. The Prosperity Party’s fixation on maritime access serves as a smokescreen for policy paralysis and internal decay.

Myth no. 3. “Ethiopia has historic ownership of Assab.”

This assertion collapses under historical scrutiny. The Red Sea coast — from Massawa to Assab — was for centuries under Ottoman, Egyptian, Italian, and later British control. Ethiopia never exercised sovereign authority there. The “historic ownership” claim is a relic of imperial nostalgia, dismantled in 1991 when Eritrea achieved de facto independence and confirmed in 1993 through a UN-observed referendum.

Myth no. 4. “Eritrea owes its ports and independence to Ethiopia’s permission.”

This narrative — increasingly voiced by Abiy’s inner circle — suggests that Eritrea exists only because Ethiopia “allowed” it to secede. It is a dangerous distortion. Eritrea’s independence was earned through a 30-year armed struggle and internationally recognized through a referendum, not by Ethiopian grace. Such rhetoric does not express pride; it signals delusion and arrogance, risking renewed hostility across the Horn.

Myth no. 5. “The Red Sea is Ethiopia’s destiny.”

Perhaps the most perilous of all, this myth transforms geography into theology. Abiy now frames the Red Sea as Ethiopia’s divine inheritance — a messianic tone that replaces diplomacy with destiny. When leaders begin invoking fate to justify expansion, history tells us what follows: conflict, not glory.

Regional Fallout and Rising Alarm

Abiy’s Red Sea rhetoric does not end at Ethiopia’s borders. It is unsettling the entire region. Eritrea, fiercely protective of its sovereignty, sees these statements as open provocation. Djibouti, Somalia, and Sudan are also watching anxiously, recognizing how quickly rhetoric can spiral into confrontation in a region already scarred by fragile borders and ethnic fault lines.

Even the African Union, headquartered in Addis Ababa, faces a quiet dilemma: unable to openly challenge its host government, yet fully aware that such revisionism undermines the AU’s founding principles — sovereignty, non-aggression, and peaceful coexistence.

Meanwhile, Western governments issue cautious statements about “dialogue” and “regional stability.” Behind diplomatic restraint, however, lies growing concern that Abiy’s Ethiopia is drifting into delusion — and perhaps, confrontation.

A Nation Drowning in Myths

Ethiopia’s tragedy today is not only its political dysfunction, but its war on truth. The Prosperity Party’s narrative about Assab is not about ports or history — it is about power and distraction. By manufacturing an external enemy and promising a return to lost glory, Abiy Ahmed seeks to divert attention from a collapsing state and his own eroding legitimacy.

The irony is bitter: this mythmaking comes at the very moment when the nation can least afford illusion. The Tigray war has left deep scars. Oromia remains restless. Amhara is in open revolt. Inflation and repression suffocate daily life. And yet, instead of addressing these crises, the government is busy writing history as escapism.

It is the oldest trick in politics: when legitimacy collapses at home, invent an enemy abroad. But Ethiopia’s salvation will not come from the sea. It will come from confronting its own truths.

Reclaiming Truth, Not Territory

The Prosperity Party’s obsession with Assab reveals a deeper malaise — the belief that control over narrative equals control over destiny. Abiy Ahmed’s government has blurred the line between myth and policy, between storytelling and statehood.

History, however, is unforgiving to such experiments. Leaders who chase immortality through myth, often end up consumed by it. The Prime Minister who once promised reform and unity now presides over a nation fractured by fear, fantasy, and fatigue.

If Ethiopia truly seeks renewal, it must begin not by reclaiming ports, but by reclaiming truth — the only foundation upon which any nation can stand.