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Which country is Abiy Ahmed most likely to seek refuge?
Posted: 15 Oct 2025, 08:43
by Yakume
Recently, heads of state (Bangladesh, Syria, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Madagascar, to name a few) have fled their countries due to political pressure from their people. Mengistu, Abiy's brother, also fled the country. Abiy Ahmed feels unsure and worried because of the problems and conflicts with the Amhara, Tigrayan, Ogaden, and other groups. He also thinks that his Oromo advisors and others, like the United Arab Emirates and Western countries, have not given him good advice on running the country and dealing with political groups and neighbouring countries. His leaving is not about how it will happen, but when. The question is, which country is Abiy Ahmed most likely to seek refuge if forced to flee Ethiopia?
Re: Which country is Abiy Ahmed most likely to seek refuge?
Posted: 15 Oct 2025, 09:40
by Yakume
To be clear, the man is a security expert and knows when and where to go and seek asylum. Some of these countries currently have poor relations with Ethiopia (such as Eritrea), while others have legal institutions (such as South Africa), and he may be held accountable for genocide in Amhara, Tigray, and Ogaden. There is a possibility that he will not seek refuge in these countries. If he decides to go to Eritrea, the Eritrean government will grant him asylum but in the highlands and not the Red Sea region. The best are the UAE, Turkey, and China, but the Ogaden region will be a gateway for him, and he may decide to live in Somalia, which he loved so much during his visits, and he could be a guest with his friend Hassan Sheik Mohamed.
Re: Which country is Abiy Ahmed most likely to seek refuge?
Posted: 15 Oct 2025, 10:13
by Abere
Wondering about the choices given
1. China. Will not take this risk and alienate Ethiopians - it will cost China, such as investment.
2. Eritrea Is this a country? Why not Wolega, Harargahe province. Have ever run to a demolished or ruined and roofless home to protect yourself from a torrential rain fall. Eritrea province is like that. So, poor choice
3. France . No way, liberty is the value. He would deported next day
4. Israel. No way
5. Rwanda. You must be kidding. A country with deep of genocide welcoming a notorious genocidal. Amhara will ask Rwanda to bring him back to Ethiopia.
6. Russia. Abiy Ahmed is too little to them - not weigh the dust on their nail
7. Somalia. This is another Eritrea province, it is already destroyed. Who is gonna babysit him? African countries are babysitting Somalia itself. Al Shaba is the ruler of this fake country already broken into three pieces.
8. South Africa. No way, this country is against apartheid and cannot welcome an Orommuma apartheid regime head.
9. The UAE. I do not think so. Arabs only go after advantage and noisy when the see it; else they cannot go down to the gate of hell with their slaves. Women and slaves are regarded as having no soul.
10. Turkey. No way, there is nothing Turkey expect from Orommuma.
*** I guess Fano will capture him alive. All the blood he spilled will not let him flee, he is jailed.
Re: Which country is Abiy Ahmed most likely to seek refuge?
Posted: 15 Oct 2025, 10:21
by Fed_Up
Abere wrote: ↑15 Oct 2025, 10:13
Wondering about the choices given
1. China. Will not take this risk and alienate Ethiopians - it will cost China, such as investment.
2. Eritrea Is this a country? Why not Wolega, Harargahe province. Have ever run to a demolished or ruined and roofless home to protect yourself from a torrential rain fall. Eritrea province is like that. So, poor choice
3. France . No way, liberty is the value. He would deported next day
4. Israel. No way
5. Rwanda. You must be kidding. A country with deep of genocide welcoming a notorious genocidal. Amhara will ask Rwanda to bring him back to Ethiopia.
6. Russia. Abiy Ahmed is too little to them - not weigh the dust on their nail
7. Somalia. This is another Eritrea province, it is already destroyed. Who is gonna babysit him? African countries are babysitting Somalia itself. Al Shaba is the ruler of this fake country already broken into three pieces.
8. South Africa. No way, this country is against apartheid and cannot welcome an Orommuma apartheid regime head.
9. The UAE. I do not think so. Arabs only go after advantage and noisy when the see it; else they cannot go down to the gate of hell with their slaves. Women and slaves are regarded as having no soul.
10. Turkey. No way, there is nothing Turkey expect from Orommuma.
*** I guess Fano will capture him alive. All the blood he spilled will not let him flee, he is jailed.
Jobless ሰገጤ,
ይሄን ሁሉ ማን ያነብልኛል ብለህ ነው እምትለቀልቀው:: ያውም በደረቅ ቦቆሎ የቀነጨረ ድሃ የድሃ ዘር ሰገጤ ጭቅላት የፃፈው:: ዝም ብለህ አትንዠርዥር... ማንም አያነበውም:: የሆንክ ተጧሪ:: እስኪ ግዜህን ቁምነገር ሰራበት
Re: Which country is Abiy Ahmed most likely to seek refuge?
Posted: 15 Oct 2025, 11:23
by Abere
F>ucked_Up,
Please note that I am not here to babysit someone who is effectively without a country. Eritrea, as widely recognized, feels like a roofless, ruined, and abandoned land. In many ways, you all are, quite literally, Country-less people. I understand, you are Shabia incubated children may be from unknow father from Sudan and Jeberti mother ( unfortunate to breastfeed more than 6-months, later Shabia snatched you her baby chicken) - thus your dad is doddering Shabia and mom doddering Shabia raised in a cave watching hate movie against Amhara and Ethiopia - that is why you are a pouty mouth, empty noisy like typical Ascari-ta'nika head. 
Re: Which country is Abiy Ahmed most likely to seek refuge?
Posted: 15 Oct 2025, 16:30
by Yakume
Abere wrote: ↑15 Oct 2025, 10:13
Wondering about the choices given
1. China. Will not take this risk and alienate Ethiopians - it will cost China, such as investment.
2. Eritrea Is this a country? Why not Wolega, Harargahe province. Have ever run to a demolished or ruined and roofless home to protect yourself from a torrential rain fall. Eritrea province is like that. So, poor choice
3. France . No way, liberty is the value. He would deported next day
4. Israel. No way
5. Rwanda. You must be kidding. A country with deep of genocide welcoming a notorious genocidal. Amhara will ask Rwanda to bring him back to Ethiopia.
6. Russia. Abiy Ahmed is too little to them - not weigh the dust on their nail
7. Somalia. This is another Eritrea province, it is already destroyed. Who is gonna babysit him? African countries are babysitting Somalia itself. Al Shaba is the ruler of this fake country already broken into three pieces.
8. South Africa. No way, this country is against apartheid and cannot welcome an Orommuma apartheid regime head.
9. The UAE. I do not think so. Arabs only go after advantage and noisy when the see it; else they cannot go down to the gate of hell with their slaves. Women and slaves are regarded as having no soul.
10. Turkey. No way, there is nothing Turkey expect from Orommuma.
*** I guess Fano will capture him alive. All the blood he spilled will not let him flee, he is jailed.
The answer is your question and this is a summary:
1. China: not best option, and will get its money back (Ogaden oil and drones used in Tigray war) through international legal options as well as UN Security Council
2. Eritrea: as a country plausible because Eritrea is internationally isolated and poor, but problematic
3. France: highly unlikely, but last option or choice
4. Israel: Ties exist but limited, and last option or choice
5. Rwanda: Kagame respects Abiy, but Rwanda is too small geopolitically to host a controversial figure of this scale
6. Russia: could offer asylum for geopolitical leverage
7. Somalia: most likely, even on the move, he could spend his life in the Halane camp under heavy security.
8. South Africa: would likely not want to antagonize the broader African diplomatic community, and could recommend Zimbabwe
9. UAE: most Likely, because no pressure from international human rights organizations compared to Western countries
10. Turkey: likely, but may refuse until it gets its money back (drones used in Tigray war)
In conclusion: the man doesn't want to be caught by FANO and will take his 17-20 bags somewhere weeks before departure.
Re: Which country is Abiy Ahmed most likely to seek refuge?
Posted: 15 Oct 2025, 16:40
by Dama
Azerbajan....
Re: Which country is Abiy Ahmed most likely to seek refuge?
Posted: 16 Oct 2025, 15:54
by Yakume
Why do you think Abiy will seek refuge in Azerbaijan? Despite the secret arms deals between Ethiopia and Azerbaijan, I don't think Abiy Ahmed will seek refuge in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is not a traditional haven for high-profile exiles from Africa, and it doesn’t have deep historical ties with Ethiopia