Re: MOU ሊፈረም ነው - ዕሪሪሪሪሪ!
Posted: 14 Oct 2025, 19:57
AS Analysis: Ethiopia–Somaliland MoU - The promise unfulfilled and the stakes of President Abdillahi’s visit to Addis Abeba
Somaliland’s President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi landed in Addis Abeba-FM-Gedion-welcomed-him
October 14, 2025 4 minutes read
Addis Abeba – Somaliland’s President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi landed in Addis Abeba today for his first official visit to Ethiopia since he was elected in November 2024. Somaliland National TV said the visit comes following an “official invitation” from Addis Abeba.
The visit is expected to include talks with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on bilateral relations, regional cooperation, and deeper Ethiopia-Somaliland ties.
President Abdirahman’s visit comes against the backdrop of the fading into the news cycle oblivion of the January 2024 Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU, which to date has delivered little beyond headlines.
The MoU was heralded at the time as a transformative agreement – granting Ethiopia access to Somaliland’s coast in exchange for Ethiopia’s (implicit or eventual) recognition of Somaliland’s de facto statehood.
In practice, however, the MoU has remained largely dormant: no substantive changes on the ground, no formal recognition, and no clear mechanisms to operationalize the port or naval access. Addis Standard’s continuous coverage has documented how the deal has become emblematic: more a diplomatic signal than a binding transformation.
Why has delivery stalled? First, the MoU lacked clarity on legal ratification and enforceability. Legal experts were quick to point out that it was signed as a memorandum of understanding, not a treaty, and the text has never been made fully public, leaving interpretation and implementation contingent on political will.
Second, regional and domestic pushback has constrained momentum. Somalia immediately rejected the deal as a violation of its sovereignty, invoking the principle of uti possidetis juris and arguing that Somaliland is an integral part of Somali territory.
Egypt and the Arab League also publicly criticized the agreement, warning of Red Sea destabilization if a landlocked state attempts to establish naval presence. In Somaliland itself, dissent emerged: the region’s then defense minister resigned in protest, declaring “Ethiopia remains our number one enemy” over the MoU’s terms.
In an interview in December this year, former Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi admitted that mounting pressure from the African Union (AU), Arab League, and “major international partners” led to the collapse of the MoU.
Speaking in an interview with the Somaliland Chronicle, Bihi claimed both sides had been “poised to transform the MoU into a full-fledged agreement” before the process was halted by coordinated regional and international opposition. “The African Union and the Arab League opposed the deal, and even major powers such as the United States were alarmed,” he said. “Ethiopia was stopped by Africa’s collective voice. At one point, there was even discussion of relocating the AU headquarters if Addis Abeba refused to withdraw.”
Third, shifting regional dynamics and diplomatic realignments, especially Ethiopia’s reconciliation with Somalia via the Ankara Declaration, and its indecisive push back against a barrage of global diplomatic backlash against the MoU, have diluted incentives to press forward unilaterally.
Several experts have also warned the rift threatened to unravel security cooperation against al-Shabaab. Soon, both Addis Abeba and Mogadishu agreed to restore diplomatic channels and renegotiate contentious issues. This was a confirmation that the MoU has been overshadowed by the necessity to mend ties with Somalia.
Given this history, what can be reasonably expected from President Abdillahi’s visit? There is a widespread expectation that at minimum, the visit offers an opportunity to reenergize stalled momentum.
https://addisstandard.com/as-analysis-e ... e_vignette
Somaliland’s President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi landed in Addis Abeba-FM-Gedion-welcomed-him
October 14, 2025 4 minutes read
Addis Abeba – Somaliland’s President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi landed in Addis Abeba today for his first official visit to Ethiopia since he was elected in November 2024. Somaliland National TV said the visit comes following an “official invitation” from Addis Abeba.
The visit is expected to include talks with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on bilateral relations, regional cooperation, and deeper Ethiopia-Somaliland ties.
President Abdirahman’s visit comes against the backdrop of the fading into the news cycle oblivion of the January 2024 Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU, which to date has delivered little beyond headlines.
The MoU was heralded at the time as a transformative agreement – granting Ethiopia access to Somaliland’s coast in exchange for Ethiopia’s (implicit or eventual) recognition of Somaliland’s de facto statehood.
In practice, however, the MoU has remained largely dormant: no substantive changes on the ground, no formal recognition, and no clear mechanisms to operationalize the port or naval access. Addis Standard’s continuous coverage has documented how the deal has become emblematic: more a diplomatic signal than a binding transformation.
Why has delivery stalled? First, the MoU lacked clarity on legal ratification and enforceability. Legal experts were quick to point out that it was signed as a memorandum of understanding, not a treaty, and the text has never been made fully public, leaving interpretation and implementation contingent on political will.
Second, regional and domestic pushback has constrained momentum. Somalia immediately rejected the deal as a violation of its sovereignty, invoking the principle of uti possidetis juris and arguing that Somaliland is an integral part of Somali territory.
Egypt and the Arab League also publicly criticized the agreement, warning of Red Sea destabilization if a landlocked state attempts to establish naval presence. In Somaliland itself, dissent emerged: the region’s then defense minister resigned in protest, declaring “Ethiopia remains our number one enemy” over the MoU’s terms.
In an interview in December this year, former Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi admitted that mounting pressure from the African Union (AU), Arab League, and “major international partners” led to the collapse of the MoU.
Speaking in an interview with the Somaliland Chronicle, Bihi claimed both sides had been “poised to transform the MoU into a full-fledged agreement” before the process was halted by coordinated regional and international opposition. “The African Union and the Arab League opposed the deal, and even major powers such as the United States were alarmed,” he said. “Ethiopia was stopped by Africa’s collective voice. At one point, there was even discussion of relocating the AU headquarters if Addis Abeba refused to withdraw.”
Third, shifting regional dynamics and diplomatic realignments, especially Ethiopia’s reconciliation with Somalia via the Ankara Declaration, and its indecisive push back against a barrage of global diplomatic backlash against the MoU, have diluted incentives to press forward unilaterally.
Several experts have also warned the rift threatened to unravel security cooperation against al-Shabaab. Soon, both Addis Abeba and Mogadishu agreed to restore diplomatic channels and renegotiate contentious issues. This was a confirmation that the MoU has been overshadowed by the necessity to mend ties with Somalia.
Given this history, what can be reasonably expected from President Abdillahi’s visit? There is a widespread expectation that at minimum, the visit offers an opportunity to reenergize stalled momentum.
https://addisstandard.com/as-analysis-e ... e_vignette