Mereja.Forum

[Zmeselo]

SOMALIA: In Hargeisa, dozens of youth organised a vigilante mob targeting Oromo and other Ethiopian nationals due to anger over the mass influx.

The reality is that many of these migrants are in Somaliland illegally, with the Oromo administration in Ethiopia known to weaponise mass migration to alter regional demographics. The frustration on the ground is therefore understandable.

However, I firmly condemn attacks on children and families. Law and order must prevail, it is the duty of Somaliland regional police to arrest, detain, and deport illegal migrants. Public safety and national security cannot be left to vigilante groups but if the govt isn’t acting, such groups will prevail.

Illegal migration is a serious national security threat, and it must be addressed by the state, not the streets.

[Zmeselo]

My Note/Article: Abiy the 's Grand Plans for September: Dreams of Glory Meet Harsh Reality.

@AligidirEritrea

September, is a critical month for the Abiy Ahmed regime of Ethiopia. The month marks not only the anniversary of the Eritrean War of Independence, sparked by national hero Idris Awate on September 1st, but also comes with significant military and political implications for Abiy's failing regime.

Abiy has a big event planned for September to proudly inaugurate the GERD alongside political leaders from Western nations like France, the UK, Germany, & Italy. That was his initial wish, anyways. To pull this off successfully, he wanted a strong show of power in Ethiopia; particularly against the FANO Amhara groups in northwestern Ethiopia. Unfortunately for him, & fortunately for everyone else, his mission seems to have failed badly. FANO leaders, whom Abiy planned to capture for his September glory, have become unreachable, suggesting they had intel ahead of time that allowed them to evade his forces. In fact, FANO has launched its own offensive & counter offensive against Abiy's army throughout July & this August, demonstrating strength & resilience despite his attempts to build a narrative of "control."

What's even more alarming is Abiy's plans, beyond simply subduing FANO. He aims to use victories against them to push the TPLF into a corner, then mobilize & integrate TPLF forces to invade Eritrea for one of its ports. As Abiy has noted in different ways, his ultimate ambition is to violate international norms & laws to forcibly gain access to one of Eritrea's vital Red Sea ports. Furthermore, his plan includes consolidating forces from the Afar region in Ethiopia, but this has significantly backfired. Various clan leaders in Afar, seeing the danger of Abiy's schemes, have rejected his plans, & some have even defected to Eritrea & the TPLF. Earlier this month, reports indicated that Abiy took severe measures, such as sending a general to eliminate local & federal commanders in Afar who didn't comply with his aggressive military strategy. Talk about madness.

Moreover, Djibouti appears to be playing a complicated game, actively countering Abiy’s militarization efforts in the Afar region due to its own security concerns stemming from the ongoing cross border conflicts/attacks. This situation underscores the complexities of the regional balance of power & highlights how vulnerable each country is amid these tensions, particularly Ethiopia and the Abiy regime.

Adding to the chaos, there is an alarming increase in arms flowing into the Horn of Africa. With Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan all grappling with serious internal crises-- Sudan dealing with the fallout of a violent civil war, Somalia combating ongoing instability and threats from extremist groups, & Ethiopia facing its own quadruple internal conflicts-- the rising tide of armaments could ignite an even wider conflict. For Abiy, the pursuit of invading Eritrea, despite numerous failures & backlash at home, could lead to disastrous consequences, not just for Ethiopia, Djibouti, & Eritrea, but for the entire region.

As September begins, it's clear the Abiy Ahmed regime is in a serious pickle. His failed plans to subdue the FANO, manipulate and cripple the TPLF, and intimidate both Djibouti and Somalia-- coupled with his threat to invade Eritrea-- have backfired spectacularly, putting the future of Ethiopia at grave risk. September may mark not just the beginning of his regime’s downfall, but also temporary turmoil in the region.

[Zmeselo]

RSF leader Hemedti has declared himself head of the so-called Presidential Council of Sudan, announcing Nyala as the capital of their new entity. He appears to be following the Libyan model, similar to what the UAE backed, by creating a parallel admin led by Haftar in the east.