Mereja.Forum

[OPFist]

Power Struggle in Ethiopia: the Incumbent Led by Abiy Ahmed vs the Opposition Led by Lema Megersa!

By Fayyis Oromia*

Today, the power struggle in Ethiopia is increasingly consolidating around two main camps led by Oromô elites:
- Democrats, shaped by the OLF ideology and led by Lema Megersa
- Prosperitans, shaped by the OPDO mindset and led by Abiy Ahmed
Other political groups appear destined to align with one of these two camps, as no viable third bloc currently exists to challenge the ruling power in the Finfinné (Addis Ababa) Palace.

This dichotomy presents a difficult choice, especially for political elites within the Amaranet bloc and the Oromummà camp. For Amara elites, both camps may appear as adversaries, making any alliance feel like choosing between two “evils.” For the Oromummà camp, however, Lema Megersa seems a more promising alternative, particularly because Abiy has failed to meet key Oromo demands—most notably, promoting Afàn Oromô as the primary working language of the federation. This failure has led to perceptions that Abiy is disloyal to the Oromo cause.

A Pragmatic Outlook

A future Oropia (an Ethiopia influenced by Oromummà ideals) would realistically require only two main political forces:

The ruling Prosperity Party (PP) of Abiy Ahmed, which appears content maintaining Amarigna as the primary working language—even at the expense of Oromiffa, which many believe deserves that role.
A Republican Party formed by pro-Oromummà forces (e.g., OLF, OFC and OLA), aimed at elevating Oromiffa to its rightful primary official status at federal level and ensuring deeper federalism.
The primary difference between the Ethiopian Prosperity Party (EPP of Abiy) and a potential Ethiopian Democratic Party (EDP of Lema) lies not just in their federal visions—geo-federation vs. confederation—but more crucially in their ideological alignment: pro-Amaranet vs. pro-Oromummà. EPP represents the former, while the EDP would stand for the latter. The OLF should work toward creating such a pan-Ethiopian democratic party led by the Oromo, similar to how the Prosperity Party currently operates. A broad-based, inclusive democratic party is essential to effectively challenge the incumbent, whether through the ballot box or—regrettably—by the barrel of a gun.

Two Political Lines of Opposition

Facts on the ground indicate two major opposition movements in Ethiopia:

- The multi-national federation line (confederation), often seen as a precursor to an independent Oromia. This is championed by moderate Oromo republicans like the OFC, who are content with a genuine federal structure, and radical Oromo republicans like the OLF, who aim for full Oromian independence.

- The multi-regional federation line (geo-federation), a path toward an integrative and democratic Ethiopia—Oropia. This line is pursued by genuine nationalists infiltrating Oromo Prosperitans in the OPP (liberal Oromos), and conservative forces like Ezema, who want to eliminate federalism altogether.
Any political force advocating democratization in Ethiopia is essentially working—intentionally or not—towards transforming Ethiopia into Oropia.

Shared Values: Freedom and Democracy

The common denominator between both opposition lines is the pursuit of freedom from oppressive systems and democracy, including the right to a referendum to decide the country’s future. Ethiopia will achieve a degree of freedom by removing the incumbent, and the next phase then must focus on transitioning to democracy.

Neither pathway—independent Oromia or integrative Oropia—is detrimental to the Oromo people. Thanks to Wàqa (God), both camps once united to defeat the TPLF regime, one of the most oppressive in Ethiopia’s history. Now, the Oromo political elite must do everything possible to foster further cooperation between these two ideological lines against the ongoing dictatorship. There’s nothing to lose—and much to gain—in jointly pursuing these dual aspirations.

For instance, the formation of the Ethiopian National Movement (ENM) was a commendable step in this direction. Both factions (AG7 and ODF)—though ideologically different—agreed to fight the TPLF’s fascism and to leave the final decision on the country’s future path to the people through a referendum.

Now, the first phase is—freedom—from Biltsigina’s system of oppression. Then, the focus must shift to democracy.

A Final Note

We must clearly differentiate between:

Dictatorial forces:
- Pseudo-Ethio-Federalists, who seek to resurrect the old assimilationist Ethiopia of the Derg era
- Pseudo-Ethno-Federalists, who aim to revive Woyane’s apartheid-like Ethiopia
vs.

Democratic forces within the two genuine opposition lines—those who aim to build an inclusive and democratic Ethiopia where all citizens and nations are free.
In the coming democratic era, Ethiopia—particularly the Oromo people—needs just two major political organizations:

- Prosperitans, advocating geo-federation toward a united Oropia
- Republicans, pushing for confederation with the goal of an independent Oromia
Both must commit to achieving their objectives democratically, in contrast to the ethio- and ethno-dictators who pursue their agendas through violence and coercion.

As for the Oromo, the EPP already represents the geo-federalist line. To balance the political field, all republican-minded Oromo organizations (OLF, OFC, OLA, etc.) should consider merging into a strong, unified EDP.

May Wàqa guide our politicians to overcome ego-driven divisions and work together in service of the Oromo people—and all Ethiopians.

Galatòma! (Thank you!)
Read more: https://orompia.wordpress.com/2018/08/2 ... publicans/

[OPFist]

As for the Oromo, the EPP already represents the geo-federalist line. To balance the political field, all republican-minded Oromo organizations (OLF, OFC, OLA, etc.) should consider merging into a strong, unified EDP.

May Wàqa guide our politicians to overcome ego-driven divisions and work together in service of the Oromo people—and all Ethiopians.

[OPFist]

In the coming democratic era, Ethiopia—particularly the Oromo people—needs just two major political organizations:

- Prosperitans, advocating geo-federation toward a united Oropia
- Republicans, pushing for confederation with the goal of an independent Oromia
Both must commit to achieving their objectives democratically, in contrast to the ethio- and ethno-dictators who pursue their agendas through violence and coercion.

[OPFist]

A Final Note

We must clearly differentiate between:

Dictatorial forces:
- Pseudo-Ethio-Federalists, who seek to resurrect the old assimilationist Ethiopia of the Derg era
- Pseudo-Ethno-Federalists, who aim to revive Woyane’s apartheid-like Ethiopia
vs.

Democratic forces within the two genuine opposition lines—those who aim to build an inclusive and democratic Ethiopia where all citizens and nations are free.

[OPFist]

For instance, the formation of the Ethiopian National Movement (ENM) was a commendable step in this direction. Both factions (AG7 and ODF)—though ideologically different—agreed to fight the TPLF’s fascism and to leave the final decision on the country’s future path to the people through a referendum.

Now, the first phase is—freedom—from Biltsigina’s system of oppression. Then, the focus must shift to democracy.

[OPFist]

Neither pathway—independent Oromia or integrative Oropia—is detrimental to the Oromo people. Thanks to Wàqa (God), both camps once united to defeat the TPLF regime, one of the most oppressive in Ethiopia’s history. Now, the Oromo political elite must do everything possible to foster further cooperation between these two ideological lines against the ongoing dictatorship. There’s nothing to lose—and much to gain—in jointly pursuing these dual aspirations.

[OPFist]

The common denominator between both opposition lines is the pursuit of freedom from oppressive systems and democracy, including the right to a referendum to decide the country’s future. Ethiopia will achieve a degree of freedom by removing the incumbent, and the next phase then must focus on transitioning to democracy.

[OPFist]

Any political force advocating democratization in Ethiopia is essentially working—intentionally or not—towards transforming Ethiopia into Oropia.

[OPFist]

Facts on the ground indicate two major opposition movements in Ethiopia:

- The multi-national federation line (confederation), often seen as a precursor to an independent Oromia. This is championed by moderate Oromo republicans like the OFC, who are content with a genuine federal structure, and radical Oromo republicans like the OLF, who aim for full Oromian independence.

- The multi-regional federation line (geo-federation), a path toward an integrative and democratic Ethiopia—Oropia. This line is pursued by genuine nationalists infiltrating Oromo Prosperitans in the OPP (liberal Oromos), and conservative forces like Ezema, who want to eliminate federalism altogether.

[OPFist]

A future Oropia (an Ethiopia influenced by Oromummà ideals) would realistically require only two main political forces:

The ruling Prosperity Party (PP) of Abiy Ahmed, which appears content maintaining Amarigna as the primary working language—even at the expense of Oromiffa, which many believe deserves that role.
A Republican Party formed by pro-Oromummà forces (e.g., OLF, OFC and OLA), aimed at elevating Oromiffa to its rightful primary official status at federal level and ensuring deeper federalism.
The primary difference between the Ethiopian Prosperity Party (EPP of Abiy) and a potential Ethiopian Democratic Party (EDP of Lema) lies not just in their federal visions—geo-federation vs. confederation—but more crucially in their ideological alignment: pro-Amaranet vs. pro-Oromummà. EPP represents the former, while the EDP would stand for the latter. The OLF should work toward creating such a pan-Ethiopian democratic party led by the Oromo, similar to how the Prosperity Party currently operates. A broad-based, inclusive democratic party is essential to effectively challenge the incumbent, whether through the ballot box or—regrettably—by the barrel of a gun.

[OPFist]

This dichotomy presents a difficult choice, especially for political elites within the Amaranet bloc and the Oromummà camp. For Amara elites, both camps may appear as adversaries, making any alliance feel like choosing between two “evils.” For the Oromummà camp, however, Lema Megersa seems a more promising alternative, particularly because Abiy has failed to meet key Oromo demands—most notably, promoting Afàn Oromô as the primary working language of the federation. This failure has led to perceptions that Abiy is disloyal to the Oromo cause.

[OPFist]

Today, the power struggle in Ethiopia is increasingly consolidating around two main camps led by Oromô elites:
- Democrats, shaped by the OLF ideology and led by Lema Megersa
- Prosperitans, shaped by the OPDO mindset and led by Abiy Ahmed
Other political groups appear destined to align with one of these two camps, as no viable third bloc currently exists to challenge the ruling power in the Finfinné (Addis Ababa) Palace.

[OPFist]

Nowadays, the power struggle in Ethiopia is increasingly consolidating around two main camps led by Oromô elites:

- Democrats (the opposition), shaped by the OLF ideology of sovereignty and led by Lema Megersa
- Prosperitans (the incumbent), shaped by the OPDO mindset of servitude and led by Abiy Ahmed
Other political groups appear destined to align with one of these two camps, as no viable third bloc currently exists to challenge the ruling power in the Finfinné (Addis Ababa) Palace.

This dichotomy presents a difficult choice, especially for political elites within the Amaranet bloc. For Amara elites, both camps may appear as adversaries, making any alliance feel like choosing between two “evils.” For the Oromummà camp, however, Lema Megersa seems a more promising alternative, particularly because Abiy has failed to meet key Oromo demands—most notably, promoting Afàn Oromô as the primary working language of the federation. This failure has led to perceptions that Abiy is disloyal to the Oromo cause.

A Pragmatic Outlook

A future Oropia (an Ethiopia influenced by Oromummà ideals) would realistically require only two main political forces:

- The ruling Prosperity Party of Abiy Ahmed, which appears content maintaining Amarigna as the primary working language—even at the expense of Oromiffà, which many believe deserves that role.
- A Republican Party formed by pro-Oromummà forces (e.g., OLF, OFC and OLA), aimed at elevating Oromiffà to its rightful primary official status at federal level and ensuring deeper federalism.

The primary difference between the Ethiopian Prosperity Party (EPP of Abiy) and a potential Ethiopian Democratic Party (EDP of Lema) lies not just in their federal visions—geo-federation vs. confederation—but more crucially in their ideological alignment: pro-Amaranet vs. pro-Oromummà. EPP represents the former, while the EDP would stand for the latter. The OLF should work toward creating such a pan-Ethiopian democratic party led by the Oromo, similar to how the Prosperity Party currently operates. A broad-based, inclusive democratic party is essential to effectively challenge the incumbent, whether through the ballot box or—regrettably—by the barrel of a gun.

Two Political Lines of Opposition

Facts on the ground indicate two major opposition movements in Ethiopia:

- The multi-national federation line (confederation), often seen as a precursor to an independent Oromia. This is championed by moderate Oromo republicans like the OFC, who are content with a genuine federal structure, and radical Oromo republicans like the OLF, who aim for full Oromian independence.
- The multi-regional federation line (geo-federation), a path toward an integrative and democratic Ethiopia—Oropia. This line is pursued by genuine nationalists infiltrating Oromo Prosperitans in the OPP (liberal Oromos), and conservative forces like Ezema, who want to eliminate federalism altogether.
Any political force advocating democratization in Ethiopia is essentially working—intentionally or not—towards transforming Ethiopia into Oropia.

Shared Values: Freedom and Democracy

The common denominator between both opposition lines is the pursuit of freedom from oppressive systems and democracy, including the right to a referendum to decide the country’s future. Ethiopia will achieve a degree of freedom by removing the incumbent, and the next phase then must focus on transitioning to democracy.

Neither pathway—independent Oromia or integrative Oropia—is detrimental to the Oromo people. Thanks to Wàqa (God), both camps once united to defeat the TPLF regime, one of the most oppressive in Ethiopia’s history. Now, the Oromo political elite must do everything possible to foster further cooperation between these two ideological lines against the ongoing dictatorship. There’s nothing to lose—and much to gain—in jointly pursuing these dual aspirations.

For instance, the formation of the Ethiopian National Movement (ENM) was a commendable step in this direction. Both factions (AG7 and ODF)—though ideologically different—agreed to fight the TPLF’s fascism and to leave the final decision on the country’s future path to the people through a referendum.

Now, the first phase is—freedom—from Biltsigina’s system of oppression. Then, the focus must shift to democracy.

We must clearly differentiate between:

Dictatorial forces: Pseudo-Ethio-Federalists, who seek to resurrect the old assimilationist Ethiopia of the Derg era
Pseudo-Ethno-Federalists, who aim to revive Woyane’s apartheid-like Ethiopia

vs.

Democratic forces within the two genuine opposition lines—those who aim to build an inclusive and democratic Ethiopia where all citizens and nations are free.

In the coming democratic era, Ethiopia—particularly the Oromo people—needs just two major political organizations:

- Prosperitans, advocating geo-federation toward a united Oropia
- Republicans, pushing for confederation with the goal of an independent Oromia

Both must commit to achieving their objectives democratically, in contrast to the ethio- and ethno-dictators who pursue their agendas through violence and coercion.

As for the Oromo, the EPP already represents the geo-federalist line. To balance the political field, all republican-minded Oromo organizations (OLF, OFC, OLA, etc.) should consider merging into a strong, unified EDP.

May Wàqa guide our politicians to overcome ego-driven divisions and work together in service of the Oromo people—and all Ethiopians.

Galatòma! (Thank you!)