The ABC of Regime Change in Ethiopia
Posted: 02 Aug 2025, 23:50
I am Horus. I don't mince words.
There are only three ways to remove Abiy Ahmed Ali from power:
(1) Social revolution
(2) Military Coup
(3) External invasion
You can combine these three methods any way you want, the basic method of removing a regime remain the same.
For ease of grasping the key points, let us not even consider the reasons why people want to remove the regime.
1
Who is hoping to see a social revolution in Ethiopia today?
(1) Some Oromo ethnic elites
(2) Some Tigray ethnic elites
(3) Some Amhara ethnic elites
1
Is there a social revolutionary movement in Ethiopia today? No, there is none. Will there be the likelihood of an impending or emerging social revolution any time in the foreseeable future? No, there is none.
Tigray, Oromo, & Amara ethnic politics are not only dying forces, they are antagonistic, self-contradictory regressive positions that are actually being dismantled by Abiy Ahmed regime. Prosperity Party is by far more modern, forward looking and progressive perspective than these three ethnic political ambitions.
So, Ethiopians need to simply ignore the noisy tiktok drama of these three ethnic dreamers.
2
Who wants a military coup in the present day Ethiopia?
According to theories of military intervention in politics, there are four basic models of military coup against a regime.
(1) Organizational model
(2) Societal Model
(3) Corporatist model
(4) Personalist Model.
There will be no organizational military coup in Ethiopia because the military is no more modern and better organized than the civilian regime.
There will be no societal military coup in Ethiopia because the military in Ethiopia is not an advocate or supporter of a particular social movement, social class or a social ideology. If at all the Ethiopian military is so divided along ethnic lines that it will never stage a coup as a unit on behalf of any particular ethnic group. What is actually taking place is that when a group of officers align with their ethnic group, they simply defect and leave the military because they are unable to organize opposition units within the army.
There will be no corporatist military coup in Ethiopia because the military does not have any major conflict with the regime regarding internal military issues such as ranking, positions, resources, equipment or pays. There may be internal dissatisfaction with respect to battles with ethnic fronts and the failure of the regime to negotiate peace with the three ethnic armed groups. But this type of dissatisfaction will not lead the officer class to stage a coup for the obvious reason that removal of the regime is not the solution for ethnic division of the society.
There will be no personalist military coup in Ethiopia because there are no ambitious and popular generals or middle rank officers that can mobilize a large enough section of the military against the regime as Gen. Mengistu Neway did. The case of Mengistu Hailemariam is different in that the imperial regime was actually removed by social revolution and military simply filled up a power vacuum.
So, when you hear idle talk about military coup in Ethiopia, ignore it.
3
Who wants external invasion to remove Abiy Ahmed's regime?
(1) TPLF
(2) Eritrea
(3) Egypt
(4) USA?
TPLF wants to return to power which it lost 7 years ago with zero chance of achieving it because the whole of Ethiopia will rise in unison not to ever see TPLF back in Addis Ababa again.
Eritrea is not only incapable of invading Ethiopia to remove the regime from power, such an adventure could lead to its removal from power. So, Eritrea will simply continue to support the ever ineffective three Ethiopian ethnic elites to destabilize the Abiy regime with no actual political outcome for these ethnic elites.
Egypt will do what it did for the last 70 years - it will support and finance Eritrean, Tigray, Oromo, and Amara ethnic elites to destabilize and disrupt Ethiopia so as to hamper our national development and our strategic position in the region and Africa.
USA -ድመት መንኩሳ አመሏን አትረሳ! America will remain Ethiopia's untrusted and unreliable double player with respect to Ethiopian national long term interest always blinded by its underlying assumption to dominate and keep us within its sphere of influence and control. My expectation is Ethiopia will not get out of BRICS and any further US alliance with Egypt against our national interest will lead to further colder relations with America.
Ethiopian foreign relations are diversified. These are the new facts.
So, when the tiktok drama tells you how US is going to tell us what to do, ignore it.
There are only three ways to remove Abiy Ahmed Ali from power:
(1) Social revolution
(2) Military Coup
(3) External invasion
You can combine these three methods any way you want, the basic method of removing a regime remain the same.
For ease of grasping the key points, let us not even consider the reasons why people want to remove the regime.
1
Who is hoping to see a social revolution in Ethiopia today?
(1) Some Oromo ethnic elites
(2) Some Tigray ethnic elites
(3) Some Amhara ethnic elites
1
Is there a social revolutionary movement in Ethiopia today? No, there is none. Will there be the likelihood of an impending or emerging social revolution any time in the foreseeable future? No, there is none.
Tigray, Oromo, & Amara ethnic politics are not only dying forces, they are antagonistic, self-contradictory regressive positions that are actually being dismantled by Abiy Ahmed regime. Prosperity Party is by far more modern, forward looking and progressive perspective than these three ethnic political ambitions.
So, Ethiopians need to simply ignore the noisy tiktok drama of these three ethnic dreamers.
2
Who wants a military coup in the present day Ethiopia?
According to theories of military intervention in politics, there are four basic models of military coup against a regime.
(1) Organizational model
(2) Societal Model
(3) Corporatist model
(4) Personalist Model.
There will be no organizational military coup in Ethiopia because the military is no more modern and better organized than the civilian regime.
There will be no societal military coup in Ethiopia because the military in Ethiopia is not an advocate or supporter of a particular social movement, social class or a social ideology. If at all the Ethiopian military is so divided along ethnic lines that it will never stage a coup as a unit on behalf of any particular ethnic group. What is actually taking place is that when a group of officers align with their ethnic group, they simply defect and leave the military because they are unable to organize opposition units within the army.
There will be no corporatist military coup in Ethiopia because the military does not have any major conflict with the regime regarding internal military issues such as ranking, positions, resources, equipment or pays. There may be internal dissatisfaction with respect to battles with ethnic fronts and the failure of the regime to negotiate peace with the three ethnic armed groups. But this type of dissatisfaction will not lead the officer class to stage a coup for the obvious reason that removal of the regime is not the solution for ethnic division of the society.
There will be no personalist military coup in Ethiopia because there are no ambitious and popular generals or middle rank officers that can mobilize a large enough section of the military against the regime as Gen. Mengistu Neway did. The case of Mengistu Hailemariam is different in that the imperial regime was actually removed by social revolution and military simply filled up a power vacuum.
So, when you hear idle talk about military coup in Ethiopia, ignore it.
3
Who wants external invasion to remove Abiy Ahmed's regime?
(1) TPLF
(2) Eritrea
(3) Egypt
(4) USA?
TPLF wants to return to power which it lost 7 years ago with zero chance of achieving it because the whole of Ethiopia will rise in unison not to ever see TPLF back in Addis Ababa again.
Eritrea is not only incapable of invading Ethiopia to remove the regime from power, such an adventure could lead to its removal from power. So, Eritrea will simply continue to support the ever ineffective three Ethiopian ethnic elites to destabilize the Abiy regime with no actual political outcome for these ethnic elites.
Egypt will do what it did for the last 70 years - it will support and finance Eritrean, Tigray, Oromo, and Amara ethnic elites to destabilize and disrupt Ethiopia so as to hamper our national development and our strategic position in the region and Africa.
USA -ድመት መንኩሳ አመሏን አትረሳ! America will remain Ethiopia's untrusted and unreliable double player with respect to Ethiopian national long term interest always blinded by its underlying assumption to dominate and keep us within its sphere of influence and control. My expectation is Ethiopia will not get out of BRICS and any further US alliance with Egypt against our national interest will lead to further colder relations with America.
Ethiopian foreign relations are diversified. These are the new facts.
So, when the tiktok drama tells you how US is going to tell us what to do, ignore it.
