DAGGERS DRAWN
Are Ethiopia, Tigray, and Eritrea preparing for war?
By Gisa Tunbridge
https://www.theafricareport.com/388438/ ... g-for-war/
July 22, 2025
Mekelle, the regional capital of Tigray, Ethiopia. © Reuters/Tiksa Negeri
Leaders across the volatile Horn of Africa are warning that conflict may be imminent.
Tensions in the Horn of Africa have risen sharply this month, with top leaders in Ethiopia,
https://www.theafricareport.com/countries/ethiopia/ Eritrea, and the Tigray region all warning that a return to conflict may be imminent in an area barely recovering from one of this century’s most destructive wars.
In an interview on 19 July
Isaias Afwerki,
https://www.theafricareport.com/people/isaias-afwerki/ Eritrea’s president, accused Ethiopia of making
unbalanced statements
and preparing to wage war on Eritrea,
https://www.theafricareport.com/countries/eritrea/ describing Ethiopia’s drive to secure access to a port on the Red Sea as
the plan of a crazy person
and part of a plot masterminded by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to destabilise and dominate the Horn of Africa.
Eritrea “knows how to defend itself”
Isaias said Eritrea
does not aspire to wage war, but if war is forced upon it, it knows how to defend itself.
The things being said daily [by Ethiopia] are not hidden from the public eye: We will take Assab… we will enter via Sudan and do this and that,
Isaias added, referring to recent suggestions by Ethiopia that it has rights over the port of Assab, which it lost control of when Eritrea seceded in 1993.
Can a sane person think like this? This is truly childish provocation. Our message is: ‘No! You had better stay put.’
The Eritrean leader’s tone was ominous,
Abel Abate Demissie, an Ethiopia-based political analyst for Chatham House, tells The Africa Report.
Isaias’s speech signals the official end of the relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea, after months of rumours about deteriorating ties,
says Abel.
This is the first time he has given a detailed interview about the shift in stance towards Addis Ababa – I think the relationship is beyond repair.
Heightened tensions
Isaias is trying to involve as many countries as possible,
Abel adds.
His direct criticism of the UAE’s rulers is perhaps aimed at getting support from [Saudi Arabia].
The Eritrean president’s comments come amid heightened tensions between his country and Ethiopia, particularly over Ethiopia’s demand for access to the sea. In a speech to parliament on 3 July, Ethiopia’s prime minister,
Abiy Ahmed,
https://www.theafricareport.com/people/abiy-ahmed/ stressed that the country was determined to secure sea access “
peacefully”.
To those who raise alarms about the risk of war with Eritrea, it must be clearly understood that we have no intention of engaging in any form of conflict – and we expect the same from them,
Abiy said, though he added that
should any threat to our peace arise, Ethiopia possesses the full capacity to defend itself – and it will.
Can a sane person think like this? This is truly childish provocation. Our message is: ‘No! You had better stay put
During the same speech, Abiy addressed rising tensions between his government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the political party that controls Ethiopia’s northernmost region of Tigray.
Alarm in Tigray
Immediately start your work now to prevent Tigray from entering conflict,
the prime minister said.
It will be worthless if you speak after it begins.
Abiy’s speech caused alarm in Tigray, where many interpreted his words as a threat. On 12 July, General
Haileselassie Girmay, a senior commander in the TPLF-aligned Tigray Defence Forces (TDF), said Tigrayan forces were
making preparations because we are hearing about situations that force us to prepare.
The rising tensions involving Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray are all part of the complex fallout from Ethiopia’s recent civil war, which killed an estimated hundreds of thousands of people between 2020 and 2022.
Isaias’s speech signals the official end of the relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea, after months of rumours about deteriorating ties
During that war, the Ethiopian government, led by Abiy, joined forces with Eritrea in an attempt to crush the TPLF, their enemy, which had in effect ruled Ethiopia for nearly three decades before Abiy came to power.
Agreement causes rifts
In November 2022, a peace agreement was signed between Abiy’s government and the TPLF, bringing the conflict to an end, but the peace deal sidelined Eritrea, leading to a rift between the erstwhile allies, Abiy and Isaias.
That rift has deepened into outright hostility since October 2023, when Abiy began to talk about Ethiopia’s “
existential” need for a port on the Red Sea, raising alarm in Eritrea that Ethiopia could seek to seize one of its ports by force.
The peace deal also led to a rift within the TPLF. One faction – led by
Getachew Reda, the former interim regional president of Tigray
https://www.theafricareport.com/299499/ ... s-cabinet/ and onetime senior member of the TPLF, who is now a special adviser to Abiy – has renamed itself the Democratic Solidarity Party, and is backed by Ethiopia’s federal government.
Should any threat to our peace arise, Ethiopia possesses the full capacity to defend itself – and it will
The TPLF, meanwhile, appears to have aligned itself with Eritrea. Although many of its leaders continue to deny this, Gen. Haileselassie alluded to the rapprochement during his speech on 12 July:
Those who were enemies in the past [ie, Eritrea] will, if possible, be allies; if not, they won’t attack us.
Schism in Tigray, too
Tigray’s powerful armed forces have also experienced a schism. In March, the senior leadership of the TDF sided with the TPLF to forcibly dismantle Getachew’s regional administration. Following this, disgruntled former members of the TDF formed a new armed group, known as the Tigray Peace Forces (TPF), which has vowed to remove the TPLF from power, and which is said to be backed by Getachew and Ethiopia’s federal government.
The foreseeable and forewarned outcome of this unholy alliance [between Eritrea and the TPLF] is the renewed declaration of war on our people
The worry among diplomats and analysts is that Ethiopia and Eritrea are now on a warpath, with Tigray being split between them. While it remains unclear whether either country fully intends to go to war, says Abel of Chatham House, the complex web of actors,
increasing militarisation
and
posturing… could lead to a misstep that could escalate into a full-scale conflict.
On 1 July, a worrying incident took place in Wejerat, an area within Tigray, when TPLF-aligned forces fired mortars at the TPF, who had moved into the area. The TPF did not return fire and eventually retreated, reportedly after local farmers interceded, asking both parties not to start a war in the middle of the sowing season.
Two days later, Abiy gave his speech to parliament, urging stakeholders to intervene to avert another war in Tigray.
In a letter to the UN Secretary-General sent on 20 June, Ethiopia’s government accused Eritrea and the TPLF of plotting
to undertake major offensive actions during the upcoming rainy season,
which typically lasts from mid-June to mid-September.
On 21 July, Getachew, the former president of Tigray, said:
The foreseeable and forewarned outcome of this unholy alliance [between Eritrea and the TPLF] is the renewed declaration of war on our people.
This doddering man who spent his entire life acheving nothing other than wasting hundereds of thousand of Eritrea youth is really in deep sh¡t in the 11th hour of his life.
