What if I told you Somalia’s war isn’t meant to end? Billions in aid. Foreign troops. Decades of fighting. But Al-Shabaab is still here, and the people still suffer. Let’s talk about the real reason why Somalia will never see peace if it continues in this trajectory.
Why hasn’t Al-Shabaab been defeated in over 15 years? The US toppled Saddam in weeks. NATO wrecked Libya in months. But somehow, a few thousand guys in sandals keep dodging drones, airstrikes, and @SNAForce, @aussom_ and Turkish forces?
This isn’t just incompetence. It reeks of intentional containment.
Enough force to block Al-Shabaab from taking Mogadishu, but never enough to finish them.
Why?
Because peace would kill the business model.
Foreign militaries, contractors, NGOs, and even local politicians benefit from this manufactured chaos. Billions flow in every year through “security aid” and “development projects”, most of which never reach ordinary people.
No war = no funding = no leverage.
Ever wonder why Al-Shabaab never runs out of ammo, recruits, or cash.
They tax towns, smuggle charcoal, and always seem one step ahead.
You really think they’re doing all that without some higher-up somewhere looking the other way?
The UN literally reported that the SNA Force units have sold weapons to Al-Shabaab. Gulf states have backed rival factions. Some neighbouring states play both sides for leverage.
It’s not a war, it’s a market.
Controlled chaos is the new colonisation.
Just enough stability to claim “progress.”
Just enough violence to justify staying.
Just enough fear to keep the dollars flowing.
Somalia’s tragedy isn’t just terrorism. It’s the global business of conflict. And the longer it drags on, the more money, power, and influence someone gains, just not the Somali people.
Next time someone says,
why haven’t they fixed Somalia yet?
The honest answer is: Because fixing Somalia doesn’t pay.
So, who doesn’t it pay to fix Somalia?
1. Foreign Governments (US, EU, Gulf States, etc.):
- They use Somalia as a strategic pawn, location, Red Sea access & terrorism justification.
- Fixing Somalia would remove the need for: Military bases & Intelligence footholds.
2. Private Military Contractors & Arms Dealers:
- Somalia’s “war economy” means:
•Constant security contracts
•Arms flowing in via both legal and shady channels
•Contractors billing millions for training, logistics, and airstrikes
No war = no profit. Period.
3. Corrupt Somali Politicians & Warlords:
Insecurity justifies:
• Inflated security budgets
• Foreign “support” they skim off
• Staying in power by claiming to be the only ones who can fix it
• If the country stabilised, they’d lose their political grip.
4. NGOs & International Agencies:
• NGOs turn long-term crises into funding pipelines.
• “Emergency” status brings more donor money
• Projects stay unfinished = justification for more
• Local voices get sidelined in favour of permanent consultant-class solutions.
5. Al-Shabaab:
• War is their business model.
• They tax, extort, recruit, and expand under the fog of conflict.
• Peace = relevance gone, fighters jobless, leadership hunted.
Fixing Somalia doesn’t pay the people who built careers, contracts, and control on its suffering. Foreign powers, elites, and institutions who profit off the chaos. If Somalia is to heal, we have to defund the very same people who feed on its pain. Dr. Khayre: @HSKhayre
