July 7, 2025
Zerihun Hailu
Africa’s two most populous nations—Nigeria and Ethiopia—are facing deepening economic crises, each shaped by International Monetary Fund (IMF)-backed reforms. Touted as necessary steps toward long-term development, these reforms are instead pushing millions into poverty, inflaming public frustration, and raising urgent questions about whose interests are really being served.
Nigeria: A Reformer in Crisis
Nigeria is currently enduring its worst economic crisis in a generation. The price of petrol has more than tripled in just over a year. A bag of rice, once affordable, now costs more than double what it did. Inflation is rampant, food insecurity is widespread, and joblessness remains stubbornly high.
Once celebrated as West Africa’s economic powerhouse, Nigeria now struggles with escalating hardship and insecurity. While the government praises its IMF-aligned reforms as “painful but necessary,” the reality on the ground paints a bleak picture. A particularly telling episode came when the Ministry of Agriculture urged staff to fast and pray for divine intervention—a plea that critics saw as a confession of policy failure.
The Nigerian Naira has plummeted to around 1,500 to the U.S. dollar. Violent crime and kidnapping are on the rise. Extremist groups exploit the desperation of unemployed youth to expand their ranks. Trust in democratic institutions is fraying. Disturbingly, support is growing—especially among young Nigerians—for military takeovers, echoing recent coups in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali.
Ethiopia: Following Too Closely
Ethiopia now appears to be on a similar trajectory. Guided by IMF recommendations, the government has begun slashing subsidies and introducing new taxes on essential goods and services. Inflation is surging, and economic instability is mounting. There’s even a popular joke: “Soon, they’ll tax the air we breathe.” Beneath the humor lies deep anxiety.
Unlike Nigeria, however, Ethiopia faces this crisis in a more repressive political environment. While Nigerians can still organize protests, criticize policies, and express dissent through civil society, Ethiopians operate in a shrinking civic space. Opposition figures are jailed, journalists harassed, and independent voices routinely silenced.
And yet, both governments—and their aligned media—continue to portray these reforms as bold and visionary. In Nigeria, Vice President Kashim Shettima called recent reforms “among the boldest in history,” citing fuel subsidy removals and exchange rate unification. In Ethiopia, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed described the country’s economic trajectory as “miraculous,” calling this year a “period of renewal” and boasting of unprecedented achievements.
But such optimism rings hollow to ordinary citizens. For millions, there is no miracle—only mounting pressure, rising prices, and deepening despair.
The IMF’s Role and the Road Ahead
The IMF continues to applaud both nations for “staying the course” and urges further revenue expansion. In late June, Nigeria passed sweeping tax reforms. Ethiopia is preparing to follow suit. Without adequate safety nets or robust democratic accountability, these moves risk replicating—not resolving—the suffering seen in Nigeria.
Perhaps the most alarming trend is the normalization of hardship as a prerequisite for development. Governments insist these are “hard times” that must be endured for future prosperity. But the costs are not being shared equally. The poor bear the brunt while elite circles and foreign investors applaud from afar.
Kidnappings, once more associated with Nigeria, are now becoming common in Ethiopia. Food prices are spiking. Public frustration simmers, but repression keeps it muted. In Nigeria, people are starving—but they can still speak out. In Ethiopia, people are starving in silence.
If Ethiopia continues in a similar path without adjusting for its own political and social realities, it risks an even greater humanitarian crisis. The IMF’s role in both countries deserves serious scrutiny—not just for what it promises, but for what it leaves behind.
As slogans of “renewal” and “miracle” fill parliamentary halls and press conferences, one has to ask: will these reforms truly bring prosperity—or only deepen the pain?
Zerihun Hailu is a junior researcher and geopolitical analyst with a focus on the Horn of Africa, West Africa and the Sahel region.
https://borkena.com/2025/07/07/starving ... f-reforms/
