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Ethiopia among African countries at epicenter of rising conflicts: Global Peace Index 2025

https://addisstandard.com/ethiopia-amon ... 025/?amp=1

June 20, 2025


The scar of war in the Tigray region on diplay in the main highway connecting the capital Mekelle with Weldiya in the Amhara region. Photo: Addis Standard

Addis Abeba – African countries continue to be one of the most conflict-ridden countries in the world, according to the Global Peace Index 2025, released by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP). The report identifies Ethiopia, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and South Sudan, among the world’s top conflict escalation hotspots, with each country experiencing severe violence, humanitarian crises, and political instability.

There are currently 59 active state-based conflicts globally- the highest number since World War II – and Africa is home to some of the most dangerous of them,

the 122 pages IEP report https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-con ... 25-web.pdf notes.

Sudan ranks as the third least peaceful country in the world, behind only Ukraine and Russia. The country has suffered a devastating civil war https://addisstandard.com/news-more-tha ... lla/?amp=1 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023. In 2024 alone, more than 6,800 conflict-related deaths were recorded, while the displacement of millions has created a dire humanitarian emergency.



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Ethiopia/Eritrea is one of four conflict dyads with the highest risk of rapid and severe escalation in the near term

IEP




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The DRC, meanwhile, saw its peacefulness deteriorate further, ranking 160th out of 163 countries.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo continues to experience sustained violence from dozens of armed groups, with one of the world’s worst records for conflict deaths and displaced populations,

the report states.

Ethiopia remains in deep crisis. Despite the formal end of the two-year devastating war in the Tigray region, the report warns that tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea https://addisstandard.com/lt-gen-tsadka ... war/?amp=1 continue to pose significant escalation risks.

Ethiopia/Eritrea is one of four conflict dyads with the highest risk of rapid and severe escalation in the near term.

Although the report did not focus on the ongoing conflicts in other regions of Ethiopia, the active militarized conflicts in the Amhara and Oromia regions continued caused untold sufferings to civilians and vital infrastructures in both regions.

The near two-year conflict in the Amhara region involving government and various Fano armed groups has caused worsening humanitarian crises marked by mass killings, https://addisstandard.com/news-resident ... yle/?amp=1 displacement, https://addisstandard.com/amhara-region ... ict/?amp=1 food shortages, https://addisstandard.com/news-a-quarte ... ion/?amp=1 as well as the disruptions to essential services, https://addisstandard.com/drivers-in-am ... ces/?amp=1 including health and education. Similarly, the conflict in the Oromia region involving government forces and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) saw no end in sight as it entered its sixth years.

Talks that were held in Zanzibar and in Dar es Salaam in Zanzibar that were mediated by IGAD with support from Norway, Kenya, and the U.S. ended without agreement due to unresolved political issues, despite high-level participation https://addisstandard.com/endf-reports- ... lks/?amp=1 in Dar es Salaam from OLA leaders.

Furthermore, more than 11,000 people have been displaced in recent weeks due to armed violence https://addisstandard.com/over-11000-di ... ons/?amp=1 in the border areas of Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions.

Militarization, external involvement, and escalation risks

IEP’s report highlights that Africa is not only experiencing internal conflict but is also increasingly entangled in external engagements. Cameroon, Nigeria, Rwanda, Ghana, and Niger are each involved in five or more external conflicts, mainly through peacekeeping or counterinsurgency operations

There are now 98 countries involved in some form of external conflict – up from 59 in 2008,

the report states.

In most cases, countries are supporting governments against armed rebels or terrorist groups.

The Sahel region remains a flashpoint. The index notes that instability and resource scarcity have made the region a ground zero for geopolitical competition, with both state and non-state actors vying for influence and control. Terrorism, particularly in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has intensified.


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Peace inequality is deepening. The gap between the most and least peaceful countries has widened by 11.7% over the past two decades

IEP



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The impact of these conflicts is not merely human – it’s economic. According to the report, violence cost the global economy $19.97 trillion in 2024, with developing nations in sub-Saharan Africa among the hardest hit.

Military and internal security expenditure alone account for over 74% of this cost,

it reveals.

We are entering an age of global power fragmentation,

says the report.

Peace inequality is deepening. The gap between the most and least peaceful countries has widened by 11.7% over the past two decades.

In a sobering assessment, the report underscores that the pathways out of Africa’s conflicts remain narrow. Fewer conflicts are ending in peace deals or decisive victories.

Only 4% of conflicts now end in peace agreements, compared to 23% in the 1970s,

the report explains.

Invest in peace

IEP stresses the importance of building “Positive Peace” – the institutions, attitudes, and structures that underpin a peaceful society. But in a troubling trend, global investment in peacebuilding has declined by 26% since 2008.

Spending on peacebuilding and peacekeeping in 2024 amounted to just 0.52% of total military expenditure,

the report warns.

The number of deployed peacekeepers has fallen by 42% over the past decade, even as conflicts rise.

With warning signs flashing across the continent, the report calls for immediate and coordinated international efforts to reverse these dangerous trajectories. Without them, Africa’s escalating conflicts could soon spill beyond its borders – with global consequences. AS

[Zmeselo]

News
Ethiopia Ranks Near Bottom on Global Housing Affordability Index

By Addis Getachew

https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/45749/

June 21, 2025

Only Syria and Cuba rank lower than Ethiopia on a recently published global index on income and property prices, highlighting the massive gap between income and housing costs in Addis Ababa and elsewhere.

According to Numbeo, a crowd-sourced online database that provides information on consumer prices, property prices, and quality of life metrics across the globe, Ethiopia’s property price-to-income ratio (PIR) is 47.1, indicating the average Ethiopian spends almost half of their income on housing.

Among yardsticks in the index, the price-to-income ratio is used to measure the relationship between housing prices and household income. It is calculated by dividing the median house price by the median household income. A higher PIR indicates that housing is less affordable, as prices are high relative to income. Conversely, a lower PIR suggests that homes are more affordable.

Property markets in Ethiopia and Cameroon, which has a PIR of 46.6, are far more expensive than elsewhere in Africa, according to Numbeo, which also featured South Africa (3.23), Egypt (18.19), and Algeria (16.74) on its index.

In Addis Ababa, which hosts a number of international and continental organizations such as the African Union and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, the City Administration is struggling in financing its public housing projects, managing to repay just 1.9 percent of 25.85 billion birr in bond credit due to the state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) over the first three quarters of the fiscal year.

Experts in housing development and real estate developers agree that lack of mortgage banking in Ethiopia is among the factors responsible for very low levels of housing availability in the country, while most real estate developers focus on availing luxurious housing to those who can afford to pay copious sums to own residential properties.

A substantial gap exists between the number of housing units needed and those actually available, particularly in Addis Ababa, with projections requiring a large increase in annual housing unit construction.

The housing sector is experiencing a mix of challenges and opportunities, including a significant gap between housing demand and supply, rising costs, and the impact of government initiatives. There is also a push for more regulated and transparent real estate practices, alongside efforts to address the existing housing shortage.

The market slowdown has also been observed by Ermias Amelga, a pioneer in Ethiopia’s real estate development scene. Despite stepping back from the sector as a result of a failed housing project and the controversies that followed two decades ago, Ermias maintains a keen interest in market trends.

In an unpublished interview with The Reporter Magazine a few months ago, he argued that Addis Ababa’s real estate market, after a period of rapid expansion, is now grappling with “multiple structural challenges.”

High-end apartments and villas are flooding the market, but demand has slowed significantly, with developers who miscalculated demand now facing long sales cycles and price reductions to offload inventory,

Ermias said.

Speculative investors are offloading properties at discounted rates, putting downward pressure on prices, and this trend has led to a loss of confidence in the market, discouraging further speculative investment.

Numbeo was founded in 2009 by Mladen Adamović to facilitate the sharing and comparison of such data. By 2017, it was recognized as the world’s largest database of user-generated information about cities.

[Zmeselo]

Abiy Ahmed has issued a pointed warning yesterday to the people of Tigray, urging them not to be deceived by the TPLF into engaging in another war over «territories».

The warning comes amid growing rhetoric from TPLF generals, who often accuse the Abiy Ahmed administration of failing to implement the "Pretoria Agreement" and are now signaling plans to return the tens of thousands of displaced Tigrayans to the disputed areas they refer to as “Western Tigray.”

TPLF officials have stated that displaced Tigrayans, many of whom have been living in makeshift shelters across Tigray since the beginning of the 2018 war, should not remain in limbo for a fifth year.

They have indicated that efforts to return these communities to what the Amhara people refers to as their "ancestral lands" must be carried out, by military means if necessary, before the start of the rainy season.

These developments have raised concerns about a possible return to armed conflict between the TPLF, federal forces, and Amhara regional units in northern Ethiopia, only months after a fragile peace deal brought an uneasy calm to the region.

If A=B and B=C, then A=C.

In mathematics, this relationship is called Transitive Property of Equality.

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Photo: During the 2018–2022 Tigray conflict, TPLF forces dealt a series of heavy defeats to Abiy Ahmed’s troops, capturing thousands as prisoners of war. It was only with major military support from Eritrea and the Amhara Fano militia that the tide of the war turned, ultimately preventing the collapse of Abiy’s government.

Today, if conflict erupts again, the Abiy Ahmed regime is unlikely to receive the same backing. His relations with both Eritrea and the Fano militia have sharply deteriorated, with both now increasingly viewed by his administration as enemies.

[Fiyameta]