Poke the Lion
Posted: 11 Jun 2025, 00:51
Eritrea Holds All the Cards — While Abiy Throws Stones from a Glass House 🪞🪨
Desperation meets consequences. Eritrea didn’t start this, but it knows how to finish it.
🧨 Abiy’s Dangerous Gamble Backfires
In a reckless move, Abiy Ahmed’s collapsing regime officially hosts and arms Brigade Nhamedu (BN) — a terrorist-labeled group by European authorities. What does this mean? He’s poking the lion.
Eritrea’s Strategic Options — If Provoked:
🟥 Fano Connection
The Amhara Fano is already shaking the regime. Eritrea’s alignment could amplify their resistance and break Abiy’s spine.
🟧 Oromo OLA/“Shene” Front
They’re fighting ferociously. Eritrea’s involvement could further weaken Abiy’s military posture.
🟨 Reengaging TPLF?
A calculated move with TPLF would put Abiy on the edge of political extinction.
🟩 Afar Resistance
The Afar people reject Abiy’s warmongering. Eritrea’s influence could fortify their stand.
Diplomatic Leverage — Eritrea Isn’t Alone: 
Egypt, Sudan (Al-Burhan), Somalia, Djibouti & more
The region sees Abiy as a destabilizer. Eritrea, with its principled diplomacy, has real allies who want stability, not sabotage.
Final Word: Peace Preferred — But Not at Any Cost
Eritrea prefers peace and regional harmony.
But Eritrea will NOT sit idle if sovereignty is threatened.
If Abiy pushes too far, his downfall might come faster than expected — with Eritrea accelerating the process.
Desperation meets consequences. Eritrea didn’t start this, but it knows how to finish it.
🧨 Abiy’s Dangerous Gamble Backfires
In a reckless move, Abiy Ahmed’s collapsing regime officially hosts and arms Brigade Nhamedu (BN) — a terrorist-labeled group by European authorities. What does this mean? He’s poking the lion.
Eritrea’s Strategic Options — If Provoked:🟥 Fano Connection
The Amhara Fano is already shaking the regime. Eritrea’s alignment could amplify their resistance and break Abiy’s spine.
🟧 Oromo OLA/“Shene” Front
They’re fighting ferociously. Eritrea’s involvement could further weaken Abiy’s military posture.
🟨 Reengaging TPLF?
A calculated move with TPLF would put Abiy on the edge of political extinction.
🟩 Afar Resistance
The Afar people reject Abiy’s warmongering. Eritrea’s influence could fortify their stand.
Diplomatic Leverage — Eritrea Isn’t Alone: 
Egypt, Sudan (Al-Burhan), Somalia, Djibouti & moreThe region sees Abiy as a destabilizer. Eritrea, with its principled diplomacy, has real allies who want stability, not sabotage.
Final Word: Peace Preferred — But Not at Any Cost
Eritrea prefers peace and regional harmony.
But Eritrea will NOT sit idle if sovereignty is threatened.
If Abiy pushes too far, his downfall might come faster than expected — with Eritrea accelerating the process.