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Fiyameta
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FOREIGN POLICY: Ethiopia’s Breakup Doesn’t Have to Be Violent

Post by Fiyameta » 09 Jun 2025, 17:30

Ethiopia’s Breakup Doesn’t Have to Be Violent

Is Ethiopia’s disintegration an inevitable and necessary evil?



By Hambisa Belina

Ethiopia is a failing state rapidly rushing toward disintegration.

Whether violently or through a carefully managed breakaway, the disintegration of Ethiopia appears to be inevitable. The real question is not if Ethiopia will disintegrate, but when and how.

This reality traps Ethiopia between a rock and a hard place. There is a real possibility of either the status quo or disintegration leading to all-out civil war with unimaginably devastating consequences for Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa.

Viewed more optimistically, nations within Ethiopia may avert the violent bloodshed by opting for an orderly, negotiated breakaway to form independent nation-states. If done properly, it might lead to a better outcome than what has transpired in Ethiopia over the last century and a half.

So far, the international community has operated under the assumption that Ethiopia is too big to fail. The focus should instead be on ensuring the country’s inevitable disintegration transpires in a manner that averts the looming volcano of violence in favor of a smooth and orderly birthing of new democratic states.

Such a move would require Western powers to abandon their commitment to holding states together in places like Ethiopia, no matter the cost. A better approach would be to support and broker an all-inclusive dialogue to avert undue bloodshed and bring about an orderly coming apart of the empire.


https://www.ethiopia-insight.com/2024/0 ... sary-evil/

sesame
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Re: FOREIGN POLICY: Ethiopia’s Breakup Doesn’t Have to Be Violent

Post by sesame » 09 Jun 2025, 21:32

Ethiopia's inevitable break-up cannot avoid to be violent! Peaceful divorce, like that of the Soviet Union, is possible only if the constituent entities have well-defined borders with no interregional contested territories. In the Ethiopian case, every border is going to be a source of deadly conflicts! And chief among them is the status of Addis! It is the prize and will inevitably lead to the deadliest conflict! God Have Mercy!

Fiyameta
Senior Member
Posts: 17652
Joined: 02 Aug 2018, 22:59

Re: FOREIGN POLICY: Ethiopia’s Breakup Doesn’t Have to Be Violent

Post by Fiyameta » 09 Jun 2025, 21:52

Eritrea is currently hosting over a million Sudanese refugees who fled the UAE instigated conflict in their country. I'm not sure if we have the capacity to host tens of thousands of Ethiopian soldiers defecting to Eritrea to avoid fighting UAE's proxy wars.

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