Re: Zack: The MOU Horse Alive!
We havent heard of the MOU for over months not sure why are u bringing it up Ethiopia first had no will and no interest to work on the mou somalia pressure was real and helped ethiopia to back down not sure what has changed now tell us what change dnow
dr zackovich
dr zackovich
Re: Zack: The MOU Horse Alive!
The Pakistani fellow offered nothing of real substance; his remarks merely suggested that Abdurahman was, or had been, disinterested in the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). He also claimed that Ethiopia was unable to implement the MoU due to pressure from Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea. which is true and the turks ofcourse
What he appears not to grasp is that Ethiopia could only secure access to the sea through Somaliland if and only if it recognises Somaliland’s independence. However, Ethiopia is not in a position to do this. Without formal recognition, there is, in effect, no viable MoU. The one thing Somaliland desires above all recognition is precisely what Ethiopia cannot offer, for a host of reasons.
If Ethiopia fails to recognise Somaliland, and Somaliland is recognised by another state, then there would be little incentive for Somaliland to proceed with the MoU. In short, if Ethiopia wishes to gain access to the sea, it must extend recognition to Somaliland. It may well be capable of doing so, but such a move would undoubtedly provoke significant backlash from the Arab League particularly Egypt as well as from Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia. and if ethiopia goes a head with it Somalia has a few cards to play. i still think Ethiopia is using the MOU just to negotiate with somalia and other coutries to given a sea acces in reality Ethiopia wants to have access to sea while not doing anything . well atleast in the case of Somaliland they want to give Somaliland a share of its Airline yet they cannot even keep the Somaliland name on its airline. On X Somalilanders have given up on Ethiopia thats why they are looking for other parts of Africa kenya and South Africa to help them. Ethiopia is the last one that can help Somaliland
Thus, for several reasons, I find it difficult to see how the MoU can realistically be implemented. i shall later comment when Abduraman visits Ethiopia and whats comes out of it , i suspect there will be some trade deals signed but nothing related to the MOU
Dr Zackovich
What he appears not to grasp is that Ethiopia could only secure access to the sea through Somaliland if and only if it recognises Somaliland’s independence. However, Ethiopia is not in a position to do this. Without formal recognition, there is, in effect, no viable MoU. The one thing Somaliland desires above all recognition is precisely what Ethiopia cannot offer, for a host of reasons.
If Ethiopia fails to recognise Somaliland, and Somaliland is recognised by another state, then there would be little incentive for Somaliland to proceed with the MoU. In short, if Ethiopia wishes to gain access to the sea, it must extend recognition to Somaliland. It may well be capable of doing so, but such a move would undoubtedly provoke significant backlash from the Arab League particularly Egypt as well as from Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia. and if ethiopia goes a head with it Somalia has a few cards to play. i still think Ethiopia is using the MOU just to negotiate with somalia and other coutries to given a sea acces in reality Ethiopia wants to have access to sea while not doing anything . well atleast in the case of Somaliland they want to give Somaliland a share of its Airline yet they cannot even keep the Somaliland name on its airline. On X Somalilanders have given up on Ethiopia thats why they are looking for other parts of Africa kenya and South Africa to help them. Ethiopia is the last one that can help Somaliland
Thus, for several reasons, I find it difficult to see how the MoU can realistically be implemented. i shall later comment when Abduraman visits Ethiopia and whats comes out of it , i suspect there will be some trade deals signed but nothing related to the MOU
Dr Zackovich
Re: Zack: The MOU Horse Alive!
Factors influencing Ethiopian decision are not Egypt, Eritrea & Somalia. These three voices are the weakest in 2025. Egypt is literally defeated in the Horn of Africa. Somalia is being taken over by Shabab. Currently, we have Trump, Israel in the mix. The unknown factor is Turkey. So, if Ethiopia decides not to be the 1st recognizer of Somaliland, it would be because of the views of US and Turkey, (not Egypt etc). But US, France, and/or UK show green light, Ethiopia might consider the offer. As we speak the known position of Ethiopia is not to be 1st recognizer.
But still the two countries have many other areas to cooperate including Berbera, trade, electricity, water, etc.
But still the two countries have many other areas to cooperate including Berbera, trade, electricity, water, etc.
Re: Zack: The MOU Horse Alive!
Horus, the god of liesHorus wrote: ↑09 Jun 2025, 21:32Factors influencing Ethiopian decision are not Egypt, Eritrea & Somalia. These three voices are the weakest in 2025. Egypt is literally defeated in the Horn of Africa. Somalia is being taken over by Shabab. Currently, we have Trump, Israel in the mix. The unknown factor is Turkey. So, if Ethiopia decides not to be the 1st recognizer of Somaliland, it would be because of the views of US and Turkey, (not Egypt etc). But US, France, and/or UK show green light, Ethiopia might consider the offer. As we speak the known position of Ethiopia is not to be 1st recognizer.
But still the two countries have many other areas to cooperate including Berbera, trade, electricity, water, etc.
Re: Zack: The MOU Horse Alive!
Horsey is MoUing again!
Re: Zack: The MOU Horse Alive!
Horus wrote: ↑09 Jun 2025, 21:32Factors influencing Ethiopian decision are not Egypt, Eritrea & Somalia. These three voices are the weakest in 2025. Egypt is literally defeated in the Horn of Africa. Somalia is being taken over by Shabab. Currently, we have Trump, Israel in the mix. The unknown factor is Turkey. So, if Ethiopia decides not to be the 1st recognizer of Somaliland, it would be because of the views of US and Turkey, (not Egypt etc). But US, France, and/or UK show green light, Ethiopia might consider the offer. As we speak the known position of Ethiopia is not to be 1st recognizer.
But still the two countries have many other areas to cooperate including Berbera, trade, electricity, water, etc.
You are, of course, aware that the recognition of sovereign entities is a prerogative exercised individually by each nation. For instance, the United States recognises the independence of Kosovo, whereas Russia does not. Yet, no international pressure is exerted upon Russia for withholding recognition, nor is the United States criticised for extending it.
Regarding recent developments, Somalia supported by Egypt effectively outmanoeuvred Ethiopia diplomatically. Once Egypt became actively involved, Ethiopia swiftly abandoned the Memorandum of Understanding and declared its respect for Somalia’s territorial integrity, effectively distancing itself from Somaliland. Thus, the Egyptian factor was undeniably influential this cannot be dismissed.
As things stand, Somaliland is unlikely to receive recognition from any major power not from the United States, not from France, and certainly not from its former colonial power, the United Kingdom. Ethiopia had an opportunity to be the first, but it hesitated. That hesitation has bred mistrust. Consequently, Somaliland has shifted its diplomatic posture and is now engaging more closely with Somalia, Djibouti, and Kenya and UAE. Ethiopia, from their perspective, can no longer deliver the one thing they desire most international recognition.
That said, I will concede that Somaliland remains open to granting Ethiopia access to the sea. However, Ethiopia currently finds itself in a constrained position Djibouti is negotiating from a position of strength, and Ethiopia is evidently struggling to counterbalance that. and u cant give what Somaliland desires no galla give SL what it wants they know it to
We harbour no objection to Ethiopia and Somaliland cooperating in trade, energy, or infrastructure, such as electricity and water. What we are committed to, however, is ensuring that Ethiopia is not permitted any form of sovereignty or ownership over Somali coastal territory. Furthermore, we insist that Ethiopia not extend any formal recognition to Somaliland. On other forms of cooperation, we are open and amenable.
The Memorandum of Understanding is, in effect, defunct and we are confident that Prime Minister Abiy will not seek to revive it. Nor does Mr. Abdirahman Irro appear inclined to pursue it any longer indeed.
Dr Zackovich
Re: Zack: The MOU Horse Alive!
Zack,
You are arguing legalities and conventions. I am talking about necessities. Recognition is a national necessity for Somaliland. Sea access with a Navy is a national necessity for Ethiopia. It is only a matter of time that these historic and survival needs are met.
People make laws and people change laws. People make laws and people break laws. Survival necessities are eternal and will be met no matter what the cost and method of achieving them.
It is also common knowledge that all things change, everything changes - situations, statuses, norms, boundaries, behaviors, relations, interests - everything changes. So, wisdom demands that we pay attention not only to the present context but also to the possible facts of the future. Wisdom further demands that we make the distinction between what is fundamental and what is superficial; what is permanent and that which is transient.
Ethiopia cannot be kept landlocked. Her security can't be kept dependent on the good will and shifting political moods of other countries - historically hostile and unreliable entities such as Djibouti, Somalia, Eritrea or Egypt.
So, it is only a question of when that Ethiopia breaks out of this prison of injustice and historical conspiracy that was committed on her by colonial, imperial, regional forces and their local proxies . Ethiopia will break out of this unjust prison be it diplomatically or by means of war.
You are arguing legalities and conventions. I am talking about necessities. Recognition is a national necessity for Somaliland. Sea access with a Navy is a national necessity for Ethiopia. It is only a matter of time that these historic and survival needs are met.
People make laws and people change laws. People make laws and people break laws. Survival necessities are eternal and will be met no matter what the cost and method of achieving them.
It is also common knowledge that all things change, everything changes - situations, statuses, norms, boundaries, behaviors, relations, interests - everything changes. So, wisdom demands that we pay attention not only to the present context but also to the possible facts of the future. Wisdom further demands that we make the distinction between what is fundamental and what is superficial; what is permanent and that which is transient.
Ethiopia cannot be kept landlocked. Her security can't be kept dependent on the good will and shifting political moods of other countries - historically hostile and unreliable entities such as Djibouti, Somalia, Eritrea or Egypt.
So, it is only a question of when that Ethiopia breaks out of this prison of injustice and historical conspiracy that was committed on her by colonial, imperial, regional forces and their local proxies . Ethiopia will break out of this unjust prison be it diplomatically or by means of war.
Re: Zack: The MOU Horse Is Alive!
Ethiopia owning a sea out let of its own is even more difficult to achieve then recognition of Somaliland I tell you why . Somaliland recognition can be solved over night if Mogadishu agrees to let go Hargeisa and sign the divorce papers . And viola Somaliland is recognized. This can be achieved if the find common ground and compromise . Similar how Ethiopia agreed to grant Eritrea its wish. Somaliland is just not recognized because the parent country Somalia in this case refuses to acknowledge its independence. Even let’s say that Somaliland agrees to lease its shore to Ethiopia for a period of time let’s say 50 years it’s still not worth it if Ethiopia recognizes Somaliland. Then it’s still won’t impact the rest of the world . Now what is even more trickier then all of this is Ethiopia gaining access to sea . This is just a pure violation of all the neighboring country Ethiopia messed up all they had to do was not oppress the Eritreans all they had to do is share the federation. But Amhara ur overlords became greedy and arrogant
Had they stayed humble and shared power with the Eritreans the majority of Eritreans wouldn’t mind being part of Ethiopia. But due to injustice. They felt f. Ethiopia we want our own country for our own safety . And you can’t change this I don’t see how Ethiopia can get any sort of access to the sea no country in the region is willing to give Ethiopia what it needs the one break away country that considered ur deal . You can’t give them the one thing they want to recognize their independence. So I don’t see how Ethiopia can get access to sea not through Djibouti not through Eritrea not through Somalia . Bear in mind if Somaliland manages to gain recognition which they don’t but let’s say if they do . They to will not entertain ur deal . It’s because of desperation 34 years not a single country recognizes them . So I don’t really see how Ethiopia can get access to sea a sea out let they can own as u wish how do you see the mou or even access to sea for Ethiopia how can it be even be possible just explain and don’t talk vague how could Ethiopia gain access to sea .
Dr Zackovich
Had they stayed humble and shared power with the Eritreans the majority of Eritreans wouldn’t mind being part of Ethiopia. But due to injustice. They felt f. Ethiopia we want our own country for our own safety . And you can’t change this I don’t see how Ethiopia can get any sort of access to the sea no country in the region is willing to give Ethiopia what it needs the one break away country that considered ur deal . You can’t give them the one thing they want to recognize their independence. So I don’t see how Ethiopia can get access to sea not through Djibouti not through Eritrea not through Somalia . Bear in mind if Somaliland manages to gain recognition which they don’t but let’s say if they do . They to will not entertain ur deal . It’s because of desperation 34 years not a single country recognizes them . So I don’t really see how Ethiopia can get access to sea a sea out let they can own as u wish how do you see the mou or even access to sea for Ethiopia how can it be even be possible just explain and don’t talk vague how could Ethiopia gain access to sea .
Dr Zackovich
Re: Zack: The MOU Horse Is Alive!
Zack,
You are repeating yourself. First, the independence of Eritrea was defective. The Ethiopian people had no say in it. A Tigray party that was one wing of the Eritrean separatist party that acted against and without the consent or participation of Ethiopia. You keep denying this fundamental historical injustice.
Second, you keep stating the difficulty of Ethiopia's question. Let me say this. Every historical task that tries to solve a national necessity is a hard work and that is precisely why it is going to be an epic national effort on the part of Ethiopia including waging a war to achieve it. So, let us not waste time on a circle and follow the unfolding events.
You are repeating yourself. First, the independence of Eritrea was defective. The Ethiopian people had no say in it. A Tigray party that was one wing of the Eritrean separatist party that acted against and without the consent or participation of Ethiopia. You keep denying this fundamental historical injustice.
Second, you keep stating the difficulty of Ethiopia's question. Let me say this. Every historical task that tries to solve a national necessity is a hard work and that is precisely why it is going to be an epic national effort on the part of Ethiopia including waging a war to achieve it. So, let us not waste time on a circle and follow the unfolding events.