Foreign
Abiy Ahmed's European tour: diplomacy and shadows of war
Between Paris, Rome and the Vatican, the Ethiopian prime minister seeks political and financial support in view of a possible new war against Eritrea
By Marilena Dolce
https://www.affaritaliani.it/esteri/il- ... 72844.html
(Software translation)
Friday, 6 June 2025
At home, the economic crisis and repression fuel opposition to the government
On May 22, French President
Emmanuel Macron received Ethiopian Prime Minister
Abiy Ahmed in Paris. An almost unexpected visit, following the one on December 21, 2024 in Addis Ababa, with the declared aim of strengthening bilateral relations, based on a strategic friendship. The conversations between Abiy and Macron were “
constructive,” the Ethiopian Prime Minister wrote on social media. Macron, for his part, stated on
X that France sees a “
prosperous and peaceful” future in Ethiopia.
France, however, was not the only European stop on the May tour.
A few days later, the prime minister flew to Rome to meet with Prime Minister
Giorgia Meloni and Pope
Leo XIV. He instead gave up on the English stop. In London, in fact, the Ethiopian diaspora had taken to the streets, against his possible visit, denouncing the massacres taking place in the Amhara region and the arrests of parliamentarians and opponents in Addis Ababa.
Officially, the purpose of the European trip was to attract new investments in Ethiopia. In reality, Abiy is aiming to secure the political support of the European Union. France could convince its German partner, while Prime Minister Meloni could mediate with the more conservative European governments.
The Italian media, which according to recent data dedicate a meager 14% of their coverage to East Africa, ignored the arrival of the Ethiopian prime minister, with the exception of the news agencies. On the other hand,
Augustine Passilly, French correspondent in Addis Ababa, published an analysis of the trip in
Le Point, also reporting sources useful for understanding its deeper purposes, beyond the apparent ones.
The main element of this tour,
says
Mahdì Labzaè, a researcher at the CNRS, Centre national de la recherche scientifique, and an expert on Africa,
was to probe the reaction of the allied countries in the event of a new war against Eritrea. Furthermore, the regime, on the verge of bankruptcy, is desperately seeking funding.
The economic crisis is deep. The 265 million dollars that the International Monetary Fund should give to Ethiopia at the end of June will not be enough to revive a country where, according to a recent internal report, 26% of the 130 million inhabitants live in extreme poverty.
At a time when the economy is collapsing and internal consensus is zero, Abiy seems to want to shift attention to an external objective: Eritrea.
After Italian colonialism, after the years of federation and annexation to Ethiopia, in 1991 Eritrea gained independence. From 1998 to 2000, however, there was still war between the two countries and the subsequent Algiers agreements did not bring true peace, but rather a "
non-war". It was only with the arrival of Prime Minister Abiy in 2018 that the dialogue resumed, having once again entered into crisis after the Pretoria Agreement between the Ethiopian government and Tigray.
Now Prime Minister Abiy is asking Eritrea to establish a commercial port in Assab and, above all, a naval base. He calls the loss of this port after Eritrean independence a “
historical mistake”.
In reality, Eritrea has never denied access to the ports of Massawa and Assab for commercial activities. As for historical belonging, the ports have never been Ethiopian, except during the years of federation, annexation and military occupation. Independent Eritrea has reconquered the territory, delimited by the former colonial borders that included the ports.
The idea that a large country should have access to the sea could, however, find attentive ears in Europe, even if so far no European leader has openly supported this position. However, the stages of Abiy’s trip reveal the desire to obtain support in the event of a war against Eritrea.
It seems that the friendly tone of France has reassured Prime Minister Abiy. Macron has not failed to smile and shake hands, despite the accusations of serious human rights violations in the Amhara and Oromo regions.
Another lever that Abiy is trying to leverage is his commitment to respect the Pretoria Agreement (2022), signed after two years of war between the Ethiopian government (also supported by Eritrea) and the TPLF. Today, however, the Tigray People's Liberation Front is divided and the wing, led by
Debretsion Gebremichael, has moved closer to Eritrea, fearing the possibility of a new war unleashed by Abiy.
In addition to the diplomatic route, Abiy is also seeking military support from Turkey, which has already provided drones used in the bombings in the Amhara region, and from the United Arab Emirates, which could support him in the event of a war against Eritrea.
According to internal sources, Ethiopian troops have been massing along the Eritrean border in recent months.
Desta Tilahun, secretary general of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party, also spoke about Europe, saying:
We need diplomatic relations with the European Union, but they must benefit the people, not just one leader. European politicians must know that in Ethiopia people die every day from hunger, internal conflicts, inflation. Children do not go to school, young people are forced to fight. I have never seen such chaos. If Ethiopia collapses, the world will suffer the consequences.
The opposition, often silenced or repressed, fears that Abiy’s trip to Europe was used to raise new funds, not to alleviate the crisis, but to complete luxury projects and strengthen the government’s power. In Rome, the prime minister also met
Pietro Salini, CEO of
Webuild, a construction company that should complete the Grand Renaissance Dam, Gerd, but who had complained about delays in payments.
Meanwhile, in mid-May, a massive strike by health workers broke out in Ethiopia, to protest against terrible working conditions and low wages. Strikes were followed by repression, with hundreds of arrests, as reported by Amnesty International.
Abiy's tour ended in the Vatican, with a meeting with Pope Leo XIV. On social media, the prime minister thanked for the "
warm welcome" and for the shared commitment to global peace. A message that sounds ambivalent, on the eve of a possible new conflict with Eritrea, feared by many.