In a revealing one-minute and nine-second national broadcast, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed lamented Ethiopia’s lack of direct port access, declaring it a strategic grievance the country has suffered for over three decades. Framed under nationalist indignation, his statement veers dangerously close to irredentist posturing, undermining the well-established norms of international law that respect territorial sovereignty and the peaceful resolution of disputes. No littoral state in the Horn of Africa: Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, or Sudan, has denied Ethiopia access to its ports. On the contrary, cooperative frameworks have long existed. Yet, Ethiopia today finds itself under the grip of a leader who invokes the name Ethiopia while ideologically aligned with what Dr. Yonas Biru @YonasBiru57 has described as a low-grade Nazism, Oromumma, a toxic ethno-nationalist movement that is fundamentally at odds with regional stability and civic pluralism. As the Amharic proverb goes, Abiy is stirring in someone else's kitchen while his own house is ablaze. His fixation on grievance politics cloaked in faux pan-African aspirations threatens not only Ethiopia’s internal cohesion but also the diplomatic equilibrium of the entire Horn.
Ethiopia's pursuit of port access should prioritize international law and regional cooperation. A responsible government would respect Eritrea's territorial integrity, rebuild trust, and foster mutual benefit.
In contrast, Abiy Ahmed's approach is driven by personal ambition and a quest for legacy, rather than sustainable interests for Ethiopia, its people, and the sub-region. His 'Assab and sea access' agenda reflects delusions of grandeur over genuine benefit for Ethiopians. A trustworthy government would prioritize regional cooperation, respect international norms, rebuild trust with Eritrea and Horn of Africa nations for durable peace and sustainable development.
The last card Abyi seems to be playing to stay in power is to divert attention by rallying Ethiopians against Eritrea. The good news is that neither Eritreans nor Ethiopians actually want war. Moreover, his popularity is at an all-time low within Ethiopia.
Most reliable reports and indirect evidence indicate his support among the general population is currently below 10%.
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Ethiopians have a legitimate right to request access to the Assab port, which would indeed benefit Eritrea as well.
However, if Abiy, as the leader of a landlocked country, continues to threaten Eritrea, the coastal state, and undermine its security by collaborating with foreign forces hostile to Eritrea, then Eritrea is fully justified in blocking such efforts according to the UN charter. In fact, Abiy himself is the main obstacle preventing progress on this front. What he should have done is continue to seek foreign support (beg for as much aid he wants) without compromising Eritrea’s sovereignty or security by simply following the donors’ demands.
Perhaps the only viable path forward for both Ethiopians and Eritreans is to remove the root of the problem—Abiy—and work to reconnect the two peoples, enabling Ethiopia to access the port peacefully and constructively. Maybe Abiy will bring about his own downfall by attacking Eritrea. I hope that doesn't happen. War does not solve anything. It only takes lives.