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Messele Zewdie Ejeta
Member
Posts: 48
Joined: 27 Dec 2016, 10:21

Studying tornado and hurricane events as part of natural meteorological variability and climate crisis

Post by Messele Zewdie Ejeta » 08 Jun 2025, 13:29

Even though hurricanes and tornadoes are naturally occurring events, climate scientists suggest that these events are pronounced due to the climate crisis.

Naturally, the intensities of these events stand out. This suggests that signals of natural variability may be strong in these events.

Fortunately, natural variability due to orbital forcing has clearly defined phases. This makes the complex effort to attribute hurricane and tornado events to natural variability and climate crisis easier.

Events that are in phase with natural cycles indicate natural variability whereas those out of phase suggest a prevalence of the climate crisis.

Two peer reviewed papers at the following links may be helpful for interested researchers in this new frontier of attribution research to natural variability and the climate crisis.

Step toward a Deterministic Solution of the Paradoxical Hydrological Stationarity Problem

Validation of predicted meteorological drought in California using analogous orbital geometries

Selam/
Senior Member
Posts: 15391
Joined: 04 Aug 2018, 13:15

Re: Studying tornado and hurricane events as part of natural meteorological variability and climate crisis

Post by Selam/ » 08 Jun 2025, 14:15

Messele
Thank you for sharing your studies, which in my opinion helps to diffuse and dwarf the endless political and ethnic bickering on this forum.

Although I worked with hydrologists (Arba Minch graduates), I have no hydrology background, so consider whatever I say as a mere curious layman’s opinion. My question is purely based on the fact that climate change affects everyone.

How far do records of global hydrological data go back? And aren’t they adequate to reconstruct historical events and predict future severe occurrences? And as it stand funding for science research and even clinical trials are being discontinued. In fact EPA is closing and freezing all funding for environment and climate programs. Is that affecting your research work?



Messele Zewdie Ejeta wrote:
08 Jun 2025, 13:29
Even though hurricanes and tornadoes are naturally occurring events, climate scientists suggest that these events are pronounced due to the climate crisis.

Naturally, the intensities of these events stand out. This suggests that signals of natural variability may be strong in these events.

Fortunately, natural variability due to orbital forcing has clearly defined phases. This makes the complex effort to attribute hurricane and tornado events to natural variability and climate crisis easier.

Events that are in phase with natural cycles indicate natural variability whereas those out of phase suggest a prevalence of the climate crisis.

Two peer reviewed papers at the following links may be helpful for interested researchers in this new frontier of attribution research to natural variability and the climate crisis.

Step toward a Deterministic Solution of the Paradoxical Hydrological Stationarity Problem

Validation of predicted meteorological drought in California using analogous orbital geometries

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