Even though hurricanes and tornadoes are naturally occurring events, climate scientists suggest that these events are pronounced due to the climate crisis.
Naturally, the intensities of these events stand out. This suggests that signals of natural variability may be strong in these events.
Fortunately, natural variability due to orbital forcing has clearly defined phases. This makes the complex effort to attribute hurricane and tornado events to natural variability and climate crisis easier.
Events that are in phase with natural cycles indicate natural variability whereas those out of phase suggest a prevalence of the climate crisis.
Two peer reviewed papers at the following links may be helpful for interested researchers in this new frontier of attribution research to natural variability and the climate crisis.
Step toward a Deterministic Solution of the Paradoxical Hydrological Stationarity Problem
Validation of predicted meteorological drought in California using analogous orbital geometries
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Messele Zewdie Ejeta
- Member
- Posts: 50
- Joined: 27 Dec 2016, 10:21
Re: Studying tornado and hurricane events as part of natural meteorological variability and climate crisis
Messele
Thank you for sharing your studies, which in my opinion helps to diffuse and dwarf the endless political and ethnic bickering on this forum.
Although I worked with hydrologists (Arba Minch graduates), I have no hydrology background, so consider whatever I say as a mere curious layman’s opinion. My question is purely based on the fact that climate change affects everyone.
How far do records of global hydrological data go back? And aren’t they adequate to reconstruct historical events and predict future severe occurrences? And as it stand funding for science research and even clinical trials are being discontinued. In fact EPA is closing and freezing all funding for environment and climate programs. Is that affecting your research work?
Thank you for sharing your studies, which in my opinion helps to diffuse and dwarf the endless political and ethnic bickering on this forum.
Although I worked with hydrologists (Arba Minch graduates), I have no hydrology background, so consider whatever I say as a mere curious layman’s opinion. My question is purely based on the fact that climate change affects everyone.
How far do records of global hydrological data go back? And aren’t they adequate to reconstruct historical events and predict future severe occurrences? And as it stand funding for science research and even clinical trials are being discontinued. In fact EPA is closing and freezing all funding for environment and climate programs. Is that affecting your research work?
Messele Zewdie Ejeta wrote: ↑08 Jun 2025, 13:29Even though hurricanes and tornadoes are naturally occurring events, climate scientists suggest that these events are pronounced due to the climate crisis.
Naturally, the intensities of these events stand out. This suggests that signals of natural variability may be strong in these events.
Fortunately, natural variability due to orbital forcing has clearly defined phases. This makes the complex effort to attribute hurricane and tornado events to natural variability and climate crisis easier.
Events that are in phase with natural cycles indicate natural variability whereas those out of phase suggest a prevalence of the climate crisis.
Two peer reviewed papers at the following links may be helpful for interested researchers in this new frontier of attribution research to natural variability and the climate crisis.
Step toward a Deterministic Solution of the Paradoxical Hydrological Stationarity Problem
Validation of predicted meteorological drought in California using analogous orbital geometries
-
Messele Zewdie Ejeta
- Member
- Posts: 50
- Joined: 27 Dec 2016, 10:21
Re: Studying tornado and hurricane events as part of natural meteorological variability and climate crisis
Selam/:
I just saw and read your question. Sorry for my belated response.
Unfortunately, historical hydrological data is not as much as we wish to have for research purposes. My effort in search of it shows the U.S. has the longest data at only limited locations.
A while back, I tried to get rainfall data from Ethiopia from a friend and classmate. If I remember correctly, a rain gage station in Kombolcha had some data which was interrupted for a significant period around 1991 when there was a fighting over there to control the area. As someone who was interested in continuous rainfall data, seeing the interruption of the data was sad.
If I understand your question correctly, reconstruction of historical data is a two variable, or x and y, exercise. Even if you have so many realizations of y, or historical hydrological data, you would need a corresponding independent variable x, and check if there is a significant correlation between the two variables that can be used. We don’t use data for y from one period to reconstruct the same variable’s data for another period.
May be you have heard about using tree rings or ice cores to do reconstructions, which means they are the independent x variables. That kind of reconstruction of historical data is for longer periods, such as wet and drought periods, instead of short term rainfall events.
I hope this explanation makes sense.
I don’t think that funds for research by many government agencies was that promising. I think researchers in universities fare better in getting funding. I have been unsuccessful to continue this research at some university.
I just saw and read your question. Sorry for my belated response.
Unfortunately, historical hydrological data is not as much as we wish to have for research purposes. My effort in search of it shows the U.S. has the longest data at only limited locations.
A while back, I tried to get rainfall data from Ethiopia from a friend and classmate. If I remember correctly, a rain gage station in Kombolcha had some data which was interrupted for a significant period around 1991 when there was a fighting over there to control the area. As someone who was interested in continuous rainfall data, seeing the interruption of the data was sad.
If I understand your question correctly, reconstruction of historical data is a two variable, or x and y, exercise. Even if you have so many realizations of y, or historical hydrological data, you would need a corresponding independent variable x, and check if there is a significant correlation between the two variables that can be used. We don’t use data for y from one period to reconstruct the same variable’s data for another period.
May be you have heard about using tree rings or ice cores to do reconstructions, which means they are the independent x variables. That kind of reconstruction of historical data is for longer periods, such as wet and drought periods, instead of short term rainfall events.
I hope this explanation makes sense.
I don’t think that funds for research by many government agencies was that promising. I think researchers in universities fare better in getting funding. I have been unsuccessful to continue this research at some university.