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Power Struggle in Ethiopia: Democrats Led by OLF’s Jawar Mohammed vs Prosperitans Led by OPP’s Abiy Ahmed

Post by OPFist » 08 Jun 2025, 09:23

Power Struggle in Ethiopia: Democrats Led by OLF’s Jawar Mohammed vs Prosperitans Led by OPP’s Abiy Ahmed

Today, the power struggle in Ethiopia is increasingly consolidating around two main camps:
- Democrats, shaped by the OLF ideology and led by Jawar Mohammed
- Prosperitans, shaped by the OPDO mindset and led by Abiy Ahmed

Other political groups appear destined to align with one of these two camps, as no viable third bloc currently exists to challenge the ruling power in the Finfinne (Addis Ababa) Palace.

This dichotomy presents a difficult choice, especially for political elites within the Amaranet bloc and the Oromummaa camp. For Amara elites, both camps may appear as adversaries, making any alliance feel like choosing between two “evils.” For the Oromummaa camp, however, Jawar Mohammed seems a more promising alternative, particularly because Abiy has failed to meet key Oromo demands—most notably, promoting Afaan Oromo as the primary working language of the federation. This failure has led to perceptions that Abiy is disloyal to the Oromo cause.

A Pragmatic Outlook

A future Oropia (an Ethiopia influenced by Oromummaa ideals) would realistically require only two main political forces:
- The ruling Prosperity Party (PP) of Abiy Ahmed, which appears content maintaining Amarigna as the primary working language—even at the expense of Oromiffa, which many believe deserves that role.
- A Republican Party formed by pro-Oromummaa forces (e.g., OLF, OFC), aimed at elevating Oromiffa to its rightful official status and ensuring deeper federalism.

The primary difference between the Ethiopian Prosperity Party (EPP) and a potential Ethiopian Democratic Party (EDP) lies not just in their federal visions—geo-federation vs. confederation—but more crucially in their ideological alignment: pro-Amaranet vs. pro-Oromummaa. EPP represents the former, while the EDP would stand for the latter. The OLF should work toward creating such a pan-Ethiopian democratic party led by the Oromo, similar to how the Prosperity Party currently operates. A broad-based, inclusive democratic party is essential to effectively challenge incumbents, whether through the ballot box or—regrettably—by the barrel of a gun.

Two Political Lines of Opposition

Facts on the ground indicate two major opposition movements in Ethiopia:
- The multi-national federation line (confederation), often seen as a precursor to an independent Oromia. This is championed by moderate Oromo republicans like the OFC, who are content with a genuine federal structure, and radical Oromo republicans like the OLF, who aim for full Oromian independence.
- The multi-regional federation line (geo-federation), a path toward an integrative and democratic Ethiopia—Oropia. This line is pursued by Oromo Prosperitans in the OPP (liberal Oromos), and by conservative forces like Ezema, who want to eliminate federalism altogether.
- Any political force advocating democratization in Ethiopia is essentially working—intentionally or not—towards transforming Ethiopia into Oropia.

Shared Values: Freedom and Democracy

The common denominator between both opposition lines is the pursuit of freedom from oppressive systems and democracy, including the right to a referendum to decide the country’s future. Ethiopia has arguably achieved a degree of freedom, and the next phase must focus on transitioning to democracy.

Neither pathway—independent Oromia or integrative Oropia—is detrimental to the Oromo people. Thanks to Waaqa(God), both camps once united to defeat the TPLF regime, one of the most oppressive in Ethiopia’s history. Now, the Oromo political elite must do everything possible to foster further cooperation between these two ideological lines. There’s nothing to lose—and much to gain—in jointly pursuing these dual aspirations.

The formation of the Ethiopian National Movement (ENM) was a commendable step in this direction. Both factions—though ideologically different—agreed to fight the TPLF’s fascism and to leave the final decision on the country’s future path to the people through a referendum.

It now seems the first phase—freedom—is complete. The focus must shift to democracy.

A Final Note

We must clearly differentiate between:

Dictatorial forces:
- Pseudo-Ethio-Federalists, who seek to resurrect the old assimilationist Ethiopia of the Derg era
- Pseudo-Ethno-Federalists, who aim to revive Woyane’s apartheid-like Ethiopia

vs.

Democratic forces within the two genuine opposition lines—those who aim to build an inclusive and democratic Ethiopia where all citizens and nations are free.

In the coming democratic era, Ethiopia—particularly the Oromo people—needs just two major political organizations:
- Prosperitans, advocating geo-federation toward a united Oropia
- Republicans, pushing for confederation with the goal of an independent Oromia

Both must commit to achieving their objectives democratically, in contrast to the ethio- and ethno-dictators who pursue their agendas through violence and coercion.

As for the Oromo, the EPP already represents the geo-federalist line. To balance the political field, all republican-minded Oromo organizations (OLF, OFC, OLA, etc.) should consider merging into a strong, unified EDP.
May Waaqa guide our politicians to overcome ego-driven divisions and work together in service of the Oromo people—and all Ethiopians.

Galatooma! (Thank you!)
Read more: https://orompia.wordpress.com/2018/08/2 ... publicans/