ATO Dictators vs ATO Democrats in Ethiopia: Confrontation or Cooperation?
By Fayyis Oromia*
It is important to distinguish between two types of ATO (Amhara, Tegaru, Oromo) elites: the democrats and the dictators. The democrats among the three nations are working to promote triangular cooperation, while the dictators are locked in mutual hostility, creating triangular confrontation. This confrontation ultimately serves the incumbent regime, which thrives on a divide-and-rule strategy.
The political struggle in Ethiopia is becoming increasingly polarized between two camps: those promoting multi-angular cooperation and those perpetuating multi-angular confrontation. The latter, often unknowingly, support the status quo by enabling the ruling party’s strategy. Genuine opposition forces must do the opposite: they must promote cooperation across class, party, ethnicity, profession, and religion.
Unfortunately, many activists and opposition politicians are still falling into the trap of confrontation. In particular, conflict among Amhara, Tegaru, and Oromo elites primarily benefits the dictatorial regime. Ironically, elites claiming to oppose the regime often undermine their own objectives through internal infighting. This must change. Genuine unity among democratic forces across national groups is the only path forward.
Confederalism vs Federalism in Oromo Politics
We recently heard about the formation of a confederalist alliance in Washington, in which the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) is a key player. This alliance opposes the dictatorial regime of Abiy Ahmed. The political struggle now appears to be between Oromo-led confederalist forces and the fake federalists led by the Oromo wing of the Prosperity Party ruling from the Finfinne Palace.
Geofederalists have become invisible. Many are now hiding behind fake federalist rhetoric to oppose confederalists. I believe the confederalists will eventually prevail, largely due to support from the Western world. However, an urgent question remains: Who will control Finfinne?
If the TDF is given a free ride into Finfinné, as in 1991, the Oromo should prepare for a déjà vu scenario or even worse oppression under Tegaru hegemony. This must be avoided at all costs. All Oromo elites, including genuine nationalists within Biltsigina, must be ready to cooperate with the OLA and secure Finfinne. Neither Amhara nor Tegaru forces should be allowed to influence Finfinne or Oromia more broadly.
This fourth revolution must complete what the previous ones began. The OLF liberated 25% of Oromia in 1974, 50% in 1991, and 75% in 2018. Now is the time to push for full liberation and end the centuries-long domination by Abyssinian elites.
Ethiopia’s Political Spectrum: From Polarization to Pragmatism
The political spectrum in Ethiopia is heavily shaped by Amhara-Oromo conflict—or potential cooperation. Fortunately, some elites are beginning to see reason. The initiative taken by Obbo Daud’s OLF to form PAFD (People’s Alliance for Freedom and Democracy) was a major step toward unity. Thanks to far-sighted OLF leaders and former CUD representatives in the diaspora, Amhara and Oromo elites have started to move closer together.
There are now five major positions within the Amhara-Oromo political spectrum:
- Far right: Amharanet-dominated geographical federation (de facto “Great Amaria” as envisioned by Ezema).
- Center-right: Amharanet-dominated ethnic federation (Union Amaria, as promoted by EPP).
- Center: Rainbow confederation of free nations, as proposed in the OLF’s political program.
- Center-left: Oromummaa-led ethnic federation (similar to the federal vision of OFC).
- Far left: Oromummaa-led geographical federation (Oropia), as promoted by Fayyis et al.
The ongoing struggle pits the far-right forces against the middle, center-left, and far-left coalitions. EPP under Dr. Abiy is attempting to balance these camps to maintain the status quo. However, the Amhara wing of EPP appears to be drifting toward the far right, while the Oromo wing leans leftward. Between the two lies the OLF’s optimal “rainbow confederation” proposal.
ENM vs. PAFD: Implications for the Oromo Liberation Movement
There is much to be said about PAFD, but here I’ll briefly share my thoughts on the Ethiopian National Movement (ENM) of Obbo Lencho and its implications for the Oromo cause.
To clarify the landscape, Ethiopian elites today can be classified into seven ideological categories:
- Ethiocentralists: Favor a unitary Ethiopia, mostly Amhara elites.
- Ethioreferendists: Support a referendum on integration vs. geofederalism.
- Ethiofederalists: Prefer geographical (non-ethnic) federalism.
- Midreferendists: Support a referendum on Ethiofederalism vs. Ethnofederalism.
- Ethnofederalists: Advocate union of autonomous nations with a strong federal structure.
- Ethnoreferendists: Call for a referendum on federalism vs. full independence.
- Ethnoseparatists: Seek full independence but are open to a post-liberation confederation.
The fourth category (Midreferendists), represented by ENM, appears to be a compromise between the two extremes: Ethiocentralism and full independence. This middle ground might be acceptable to both Amhara and Oromo elites for an alliance against the ruling regime.
ENM may be seen as a step forward—if it respects Ethnofederalism. If not, Oromo forces may prefer even OPDO over ENM. A truly democratic Ethnofederation, as envisioned by the ODF, could serve as a stepping stone toward eventual independence. But if geography-based federalism wins in a referendum, it could dismantle Oromia altogether.
Toward a Lasting Solution: Inclusive Self-Determination
Both ENM and PAFD, in their current forms, are exclusive. ENM excludes Oromian independence; PAFD excludes Ethiopian integration. A lasting solution requires inclusive self-determination, where the people choose among all legitimate options:
- Ethiopian integration
- Ethiofederation
- Ethnofederation
-Oromian independence
Oromo liberation should be grounded in the will of the people—not in elite compromises or predetermined frameworks. The only sustainable union is one founded on the Gadaa principle of inclusivity and mutual respect. An alliance akin to the AFD—inclusive of all seven ideological positions—is the best hope for peace and justice.
The alliance of confederalists with OLA at its core is heading in the right direction. May Wàqa guide all anti-dictatorial forces toward inclusive cooperation.
Galatôma.
Read more: https://orompia.wordpress.com/2023/06/1 ... operation/