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Amhara, Tigray, and Eritrea: A Common-Sense Perspective on the Conflict
By Dan A

https://borkena.com/2025/03/14/amhara-t ... -conflict/

This article aims to simplify the complex geopolitical dynamics in Ethiopia and Eritrea as much as possible. Many have already analyzed these issues from historical, political, and cultural perspectives. However, this approach seeks to present a straightforward and practical perspective that may be easier to understand and help people formulate solutions to this ongoing crisis.

In economics, real-world events are often represented using abstract models that highlight key factors influencing outcomes. Similarly, this article takes a simplified approach to summarize Ethiopia’s current situation, where multiple fractions with different goals and interests are involved.

The Key Players in the Conflict

Tigray

Tigray has two main factions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF):

• Debretsion Gebremichael’s faction represents the more independent, old-guard TPLF leadership.

• Getachew Reda’s faction is more aligned with Ethiopia’s central government.

Despite their differences, the details of their internal conflicts are not the primary focus of this article.

Amhara

Amhara has multiple factions:

• Eskinder Nega’s Fano rebel group
• Zemene Kase’s Fano rebel group
• BADEN, which, like Getachew’s TPLF faction, is aligned with the central government.

While some argue that Eskinder’s vision aligns with a historic Ethiopia and Zemene’s is more Amhara-centric, their primary conflict appears to be a power struggle. This can be resolved later, but their immediate struggle for influence must be addressed urgently.


Eritrea

Eritrea is led by Isaias Afwerki, its uncontested leader. He commands a strong military that has successfully repelled multiple Ethiopian aggressions, most recently during the TPLF’s conflict with the central Ethiopian government.

Ethiopia’s Central Government

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed leads a government that appears to push an Oromo nationalist ideology called Oromummaa, which many believe is responsible for widespread conflicts, displacement, and ethnic cleansing in Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia.

Although Abiy presents himself as a unifier, most Ethiopians do not believe he genuinely works toward a united Ethiopia. His Prosperity Party is widely seen as prioritizing Oromo dominance at the expense of other ethnic groups.

Other Influential Groups

• Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) is an armed faction that holds even more extreme Oromummaa views. Some believe they function as the “bad cop” version of Abiy’s government.

• The Somali Region has not significantly opposed Abiy’s rule and remains relatively neutral in the conflict.

The Root of the Conflict

The ongoing conflicts between these factions stem from historical tensions, power struggles, and territorial disputes. Key developments include:

• Tigray’s long-standing tensions with Amhara and Eritrea.

• The Amhara Fano’s existential struggle against the Oromuma-led government and its Amhara allies in BADEN.

• Amhara’s previous alliance with Abiy’s government to repel TPLF’s advances toward Addis Ababa, which forced the TPLF to retreat and negotiate peace. However, this peace deal has since weakened, leading to renewed tensions.

• Abiy’s attempt to align with Getachew Reda’s TPLF faction to suppress the Amhara Fano uprising and launch potential attacks on Eritrea.

• Eritrea’s growing concerns over Ethiopia’s claims for sea access, which some view as a distraction from Abiy’s internal struggles.

Despite these conflicts, Ethiopia’s central government is militarily weak. Abiy lacks Amhara support and does not have the capacity to wage war against Eritrea. His defense forces rely heavily on foreign aid and weapon purchases to maintain control.

A Simple Solution to a Complex Problem

Given this dynamic, what would be a common-sense solution to end the conflict? A true leader would look past minor disputes and focus on the root cause of instability. At present, the Oromuma government stands as the main threat to the stability of Amhara, Tigray, and Eritrea.

Oromummaa ambitions include:

• Maintaining Oromo political dominance at the expense of other ethnic groups.
• Seizing land and wealth from Amhara, Somalia, Afar, and Benishangul.
• Attempting to annex Eritrean territory to gain access to the Red Sea.

If all the opposing factions recognize Oromummaa as the common enemy, why have they failed to unite against it? Some argue external factors are at play, while others point to Abiy’s deliberate strategy of fostering distrust between Amhara, Tigray, and Eritrea.

Abiy has publicly stated that Amhara and Tigray must never be allowed to form an alliance because he knows such a coalition would end his rule. His military leadership is already weak, and a coordinated attack by an Amhara-Tigray alliance would be devastating for his regime.

A Path to Victory: The Alliance That Can End Oromummaa Rule

It is almost unbelievable that the leaders of Amhara, Tigray, and Eritrea have not yet realized the most straightforward solution: unite against the Oromuma regime. A temporary settlement of their differences and a united front against Abiy’s government would send shockwaves through the Oromummaa power structure, leading to its rapid collapse.

If an alliance between Amhara, Tigray, and Eritrea were announced, the consequences would be immediate:

• Abiy would flee at the first opportunity.

• His generals would desert him, knowing they cannot win against a united opposition.

• The Oromuma political structure would crumble, with its members retreating into Oromia without resistance.

• Addis Ababa would stabilize, welcoming Amhara Fano and Tigrayan forces as liberators.

Is this not a feasible and practical solution? Why are the leaders of these factions wasting time on internal conflicts while their true adversary consolidates power in Addis Ababa?


The Danger of Continued Division

Ethiopia’s inability to resolve its crisis internally is astonishing. Instead of taking control of their fate, many Ethiopians look to foreign powers for aid, influence, and political leverage. Historically, Ethiopia has prided itself on self-reliance. Yet today, we see:

• Fano leaders attacking each other, instead of uniting.

• Tigrayan factions betray one another, rather than focusing on their common enemy.

• Eritrea seeking alliances abroad, instead of securing its region.

• Abiy continues unchecked, arresting and killing opponents at will. A Simple, Three-Step Plan for Change

The solution is simple:

1. Establish direct communication between Amhara, Tigray, and Eritrea’s leaders.

2. Identify Oromuma as the common threat and agree on a temporary alliance to remove it.

3. Publicly announce this alliance to national and international audiences.

Once this alliance is made public, the Oromuma regime would begin to crumble from within. Even if Abiy attempts to fight back, he would find himself isolated and without military support.

The worst mistake would be to overcomplicate the solution by delving into past grievances, ethnic divisions, or detailed power-sharing plans before addressing the root issue. The focus must remain singular and strategic: removing Oromuma rule first, then discussing the future of Ethiopia.

Final Thoughts: A Call for Unity

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results. If Ethiopia’s leaders continue down the same path of division and infighting, the consequences will be catastrophic:

• More innocent lives lost

• Continued poverty and suffering

• The Oromummaa regime thriving at Ethiopia’s expense

• Ethiopia’s potential fragmentation into smaller states

Sanity must prevail. The leaders of Amhara, Tigray, and Eritrea must act now—unite, announce an alliance, and watch Oromummaa collapse from within. The path to peace is clear.

Wake up, Fano leaders! Wake up, Tigrayan leaders! Eritrea, join the fight! End the madness—it’s not that hard!

Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com

https://borkena.com/2025/03/14/amhara-t ... -conflict/

The Lion (OLF) Has Fatally Wounded the Hyena (Naftagna) and the Fox (Woyane) — Now It’s Time to Kill the Wolf (Shabiya)!

By Fayyis Oromia*

It’s encouraging to observe that both the Fox and the Hyena are already severely injured. Now, it seems to be the right time to kill the Wolf. Lately, I have been hearing and reading that the three historical enemies of the Oromo in general, and of the OLF in particular, are trying to cooperate in order to fight Dr. Abiy and his administration. However, under the pretext of opposing Dr. Abiy, their real intention is to reconquer Oromia and reoccupy Finfinné.

Even though Dr. Abiy is not entirely loyal to the Oromo cause, when it comes to the three beasts (the Hyena – Naftagna, the Fox – Woyane, and the Wolf – Shabiya) trying to take him down, I advocate that the entire Oromo people and other oppressed nations support him in order to prevent these forces from regaining control of Finfinné.

In particular, the neo-Naftagnas are bragging about a potential victory over the OLF, similar to what they claim they achieved against the TPLF. They are comparing their struggle against the Fox to the current fight against the Lion (OLF) and the Oromo people in general.

They claim that their primary enemies are the “16th-century migration of Galla” and the now-thriving Oromummaa(Oromo identity). By framing it this way, they are clearly targeting the Oromo people as a whole—not just the ruling party—as their enemy. This is equivalent to a real Hyena declaring war against a real Lion. Expectedly, the Lion is now biting the Hyena mercilessly. The Hyena has no chance of escaping, unlike its past survival against the Fox. This marks the beginning of the end for the Hyena and its oppressive system. Farewell to the poor Hyena that foolishly provoked the Lion. The next target is the Wolf.

I hope Dr. Abiy will soon conclude negotiations with the OLA and enable the formation of a transitional government in Oromia, where OPP can share power with OLA, OFC, and the OLF. That would give him a stable power base to confront the current main enemy of the Oromo—Shabiya, which supports the extremist Naftagnas.

One thing is clear: the OLF (the wounded Lion) has already defeated the Fox and the Hyena, but is now keeping an eye on the Wolf. Is now the right time to destroy the Wolf too? The OLF appears to be doing an impressive job in three directions—as the rebel OLA, the opposition OFC, and the ruling OPP. I have always advocated for the OLF to pursue the path of regime infiltration through Biltsigina, rather than limiting itself to opposition (OFC) or armed struggle (OLA). It seems genuine Oromo nationalists, with the OLF mindset of Bilisummaa (freedom), are influencing Biltsigina under Dr. Abiy, enabling it to support the Oromo cause and undermine the three [ deleted ] forces of Abyssinia: the Naftagna, Shabiya, and Woyane.

It appears that the OLF is successfully working through Biltsigina to eliminate these three oppressive forces, one by one. A new, inclusive Cushitic Ethiopia—with Afaan Oromoo and Agawigna as federal languages and access to the Red Sea—is a vision that is coming into focus. A Horn of Africa led by Oromia is a real and attainable future. If Dr. Abiy is committed to realizing this modern Oromo vision, he will be welcomed by genuine Oromo nationalists. I believe the time has come to return the Assab coast to its rightful owners—the Afar people—and to ensure their autonomy in the future federal system of the Horn.

After eliminating the three beasts, the peoples of the region—especially the Amhara, Tigray, and Oromo—can finally coexist in long-term peace and mutual respect.

Reflections on Ethiopia’s Revolutions and Elites:
What a tragedy for the peoples of Ethiopia! We paid a huge price during the last three revolutions—1974, 1991, and 2018. Yet each time, we were betrayed by dictatorial elites from three dominant groups: the Amhara, Tigray, and Oromo, respectively.
- The 1974 revolution was hijacked by the Amhara-dominated Derg.
- The 1991 revolution was exploited by the Tigrayan-led Woyane.
- The 2018 movement has been reversed by the Oromo-colored Biltsigina.
All three elite factions have governed with brutal authoritarianism. During the Derg, Amhara elites ruled while Tigrayan and Oromo elites rebelled. Under Woyane, Tigrayans enjoyed privilege while Amhara and Oromo elites were sidelined. Today, Biltsigina favors a specific Oromo elite faction at the expense of Amhara and Tigrayans. The common thread among all three regimes is their fascist nature.

To be fair, there were democratic Amharas who stood against the Derg, some genuine Tigrayans who opposed Woyane, and now many just Oromo nationalists fighting against Biltsigina. Hopefully, the next revolution will lead to a democratic system that respects the God-given rights of all nations and peoples in Ethiopia.

Why Did Democratic Leaders Turn into Dictators?

It’s ironic that the leaders of all three revolutions—Mengistu, Meles, and Abiy—began as reformers but ended as oppressors.
- Mengistu was a well-intentioned officer during the 1974 revolution.
- Meles had a clear vision when he seized power in 1991.
- Abiy was almost seen as a messiah when he began ruling in 2018.
But why did they all become fascists? I believe they were infected by the “Naftagna virus,” under the guise of promoting “Ethiopiawinet,” which in practice is just Amaranet. This virus is subtle but powerful. It slowly manipulated these leaders into serving Amhara interests, often at the expense of their own people.

The manipulation followed five steps:
- Gaining the leader’s attention.
- Brainwashing them with the cause of “Ethiopiawinet.”
- Romanticizing Amaranet.
- Enslaving their minds.
- Using them to implement the Naftagna agenda.
This psychological control extends to many Oromo elites currently serving the interests of Finfinné palace under Abiy Ahmed. Thus, the three Ms—Mengistu, Meles, and Meshrefet (Abiy)—started as democratic revolutionaries but became dictatorial reactionaries.

On Oromo Unity and the Struggle Ahead

Dr. Meshrefet (Abiy Ahmed) has cracked down on the OLF, to the celebration of Oromophobic Abyssinians. Historically, no force from the north has been able to defeat the Oromo; it was always internal betrayal that weakened us. The last three dictators—Mengistu, Meles, and Abiy—each used Oromo collaborators to subjugate their own people. The OLF resisted all three regimes but was repeatedly undermined by Oromo traitors.

All three leaders promised freedom, equality, and democracy:
- Mengistu said “Yaleminim dem” (bloodless revolution), but massacred hundreds of thousands.
- Meles preached “Ye biher netsanet” (ethnic self-rule) but centralized control.
- Abiy declared “The Oromo are finally free,” but betrayed Oromummaa to preserve the status quo of Amaranetdisguised as Ethiopiawinet.
Their shared enemy? The OLF and its call for Bilisummaa (freedom). To weaken the Oromo liberation movement, these regimes exploited the internal division between two main ideological camps among Oromo nationalists.

The Two Main Oromo Perspectives:

- The Unity-Oriented Perspective:
This group believes that the Oromo are original Cushites, and that many modern Ethiopians (Amhara, Tigrayans, etc.) are assimilated descendants of Oromo ancestors. Based on this historical interpretation, they argue for staying united with Abyssinians and envision a liberated Oromia within a united Ethiopia. Some even advocate for broader Oromo-led regional integration, including a revival of Oromo identity among those who have lost it.

- The Liberation-Oriented Perspective:
This group acknowledges potential ancient ties with Abyssinians but focuses on the more recent colonial history—specifically the late 19th-century subjugation of Oromia by Abyssinian rulers during the Scramble for Africa. Their goal is full liberation of Oromia from Abyssinian domination, possibly followed by voluntary regional cooperation among free nations.

- The Ambivalent Middle Group:
These individuals shift between the two views based on personal background and political pragmatism. Many of them support a federal Ethiopia with limited autonomy, but without demanding full Oromo self-determination. However, this moderate mindset is increasingly losing ground as the Oromo struggle becomes clearer and more radicalized.
Habesha Historical Narratives as Tools of Control

Some Oromo nationalists warn that accepting the narrative that “Abyssinians are Oromo in origin” can undermine the liberation movement. Habesha elites use this theory to argue against the separation of Oromia by saying, “We are one people.” This rhetorical move dilutes the momentum for full self-determination. Whether or not these claims about history are true, they have been strategically weaponized to pacify the Oromo struggle.

My position is clear: Leave history to historians. We must act based on our current reality, not ancient origins. Today, the Oromo are marginalized and oppressed. That’s what matters. We don’t need to accept or deny any historical claims to pursue freedom. What’s important is the Oromo people’s will, as expressed through a public referendum. Freedom is our goal—regardless of history.

What Is Oromummaa, Really?

Oromummaa isn’t just about ethnic origin or language. It’s about identifying with the Oromo people, our liberation struggle, our language (Afaan Oromoo), and our culture. Many biological Oromos have turned against their people. For me, a true Oromo is someone who embraces this identity and dedicates themselves to the cause of Oromo freedom.

Conclusion: Onward Toward Freedom

Regardless of the version of history one accepts, we must unite around our shared goal: a free, sovereign Oromia, within a possible future union of free peoples in the region. Our journey has made real progress:
- The monarchy was dismantled — one step forward.
- Mengistu and the Derg were overthrown — two steps.
- Meles and the Woyane were removed — three steps.
- Now, whether we confront or co-opt Meshrefet/Abiy, the fourth step will complete our journey.
As long as Dr. Abiy is undermining the three scavengers—the Hyena (Naftagna), the Wolf (Shabiya), and the Fox (Woyane)—he can be strategically supported by Oromo nationalists. Let these three beasts destroy each other. And may Waaqaa help the Lion.

Galatooma!
Read more:https://orompia.wordpress.com/2023/04/2 ... ne-by-one/

Amhara will never work with woyane. We will never forget what you did to us. In reality, Amhara people are closer and more similar to Oromos than the northern neighbors. Don’t sweet-talk us, snake.

Yes, that is right, Amharas, Eritreans and Tigrayans must have unity to stand against one common enemy, Gallas, Act united against Gallas.

SARCASM AKA ABYSSINIALADYBOY AGREEING WITH HERHIS SELF ASIDE, SHE-HE RAISES SOME VALID POINTS.
BUT IT IS ATYPICAL OF POLITICS IN Z PRECARIOUS HORN.
ALLIANCES AND INTERESTS CHANGE. THAT IS THE GAME.
IF AMHARU REFUSES 2 RETURN OUR IDPS AND WELKAIT, ZEN NO.

sarcasm wrote: ↑

27 May 2025, 18:46

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Hooliganism

Abere wrote: ↑

25 May 2025, 11:07

This is the first time I ever seen OPFist writing comment under someone else thread. He has been all the time [deleted] now and then on his own thread - like a moo/cow/ defecating in its own stall(ጋጥ).

This is a nightmare scenario to the Orommuma expansionist genocidal regime. The good thing for Orommuma is that the so called northers are too emotional to come up with a workable solutions, and hence perpetuation of misery for their people.

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/15JEuWTS1B/

I see, now, OPFIst becoming bearish, not anymore bullish.

The northerners, Amhara and Tiges (Tigray +Eritrea) will find impossible to work together - because the Tigres have a diametrically opposite mission to Amhara. All the problem we see today is because of the Tigres ( I mean, TPLF and Shabia).

Why do you think TPLF is drum beating war? They want to take Welqait, Humera and Raya. And they are being played into Abiy Ahmed's hand. What kind of Ethiopia do you think Shabia wants? An Ethiopia weaker than tiny Eritrea province. What is the gain Amhara expecting from the fake alliance with Tigres( Shabia + TPLF).

Why does not TPLF give up salivating on Amhara territories and people. For Amhara, impossible choices are not good. Staying on principle and rational ground is a much better choice - fight back both beasts from Orommuma and Shabia/TPLF.

Have not heard TPLF renounced its claim over Humera, Welqait and Raya - desist its claim over Amhara territories.

Za-Ilmaknun wrote: ↑

28 May 2025, 12:15

Abere wrote: ↑

25 May 2025, 11:07

This is the first time I ever seen OPFist writing comment under someone else thread. He has been all the time [deleted] now and then on his own thread - like a moo/cow/ defecating in its own stall(ጋጥ).

This is a nightmare scenario to the Orommuma expansionist genocidal regime. The good thing for Orommuma is that the so called northers are too emotional to come up with a workable solutions, and hence perpetuation of misery for their people.