My Proposal to Dr. Abiy: Foster Intra-Ethnic Democracy and Inter-Ethnic Authoritarianism
Dr. Abiy initially received triangular support from Ethiopia’s three major ethnic groups: the Amhara, Tigrayans (Tegaru), and Oromo. The Amhara elites believed they could manipulate him to maintain the longstanding dominance of Amharic culture and politics, much like they did with Mengistu Haile Mariam. So far, they have been relatively successful. The Tigrayan elites, in contrast, hoped to use him as a puppet, as they did with Hailemariam Desalegn. They miscalculated and failed miserably. Oromo nationalists expected Dr. Abiy, as an Oromo himself, to address their national concerns. However, he disappointed many by choosing to appease the Amhara elite and cracking down on genuine Oromo nationalism.
Now, as the Amhara elite seeks to seize power from him, Dr. Abiy appears to be returning to his Oromo base. Better late than never. We should welcome him back. Personally, I propose that he strengthen intra-ethnic democracy among the Oromo and implement inter-ethnic authoritarianism to counteract the manipulative tactics of Abyssinian elites. He must not be so naïve as to allow these forces a path back to power in Finfinne (Addis Ababa), as their primary objective would be the irreversible destruction of Oromummaa (Oromo identity). Their active resistance to Oromummaa is testament to this intent.
The Nature of Ethiopian Politics
Politics in Ethiopia is marked by rivalry between ethnic groups and ideological factions within those groups. The primary contenders for power in Finfinne have long been the Amhara, Tigrayans, and Oromo. In practice, there exists no democratic mechanism for the peaceful transfer of power between ethnic factions. Historically, only force or authoritarian control has enabled such transitions. This is why both the Amhara-led Derg and the Tigrayan-dominated TPLF (Woyane) relied on brutal measures to rule over the Oromo and other groups.
Now, under Oromo leadership via the Prosperity Party, we must not repeat past mistakes. Oromo elites in power should not be naïve enough to allow the return of Amhara domination through electoral means. In this context, authoritarianism becomes a strategic necessity—a means of consolidating Oromo political power for years to come. The Tigrayan elite are currently sidelined, and their prospects of reclaiming central power are minimal. However, Amhara elites remain politically active and must be closely monitored. Hence, inter-ethnic authoritarianism is crucial to maintaining Oromo leadership.
At the same time, we should support intra-ethnic democracy within national regional states like Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia. For example, all Oromo political organizations must be allowed to compete freely in Oromia. The current suppression of popular Oromo parties such as the OLF and OFC by the OPP is counterproductive. Silencing these voices through intra-ethnic authoritarianism only weakens Oromo unity and undermines our leadership in Finfinne. This is precisely what the Amhara elite aim for when they stoke internal Oromo divisions. We must be wise enough not to fall into this trap. Therefore, I advocate for intra-ethnic democracy and inter-ethnic authoritarianism.
Why Democracy Has Failed in Ethiopia
As long as the triangular conflict between Amhara, Tigrayans, and Oromo persists, meaningful democracy is unattainable in Ethiopia. Until 1991, Amhara dominance made democracy futile. From 1991 to 2018, Tigrayan hegemony reduced democracy to a façade. Now, for Oromo elites to promote democracy without securing Oromo dominance is tantamount to enabling the return of either of these historically authoritarian ethnic groups.
Given their minority status, Tigrayan elites are unlikely to manipulate democratization to regain power. However, Amhara elites, with their numerical strength and historical political networks, pose a serious threat. They are desperate—many of them claiming, “Now or never!” Is Dr. Abiy—or are the Oromo leaders in the Prosperity Party—foolish enough to give them this opportunity?
In my view, inter-ethnic democracy must be delayed until we can ensure that Amhara elites are politically neutralized. One strategic path is to empower the Agaw people in the north, so that they become the second-largest political force after the Oromo. This would dilute Amhara influence in the region and ensure a more stable power balance.
Historical Context and the Unique Oromo Experience
Ethiopia, often cited as a 3,000-year-old civilization, remains one of the world’s least democratic and least developed countries. While many factors are often blamed—climate, colonialism, authoritarianism—the central issue is the systematic suppression of the Oromo nation, the largest and historically most marginalized group in the country. In other multiethnic states, the majority group either leads or the state collapses. Ethiopia is unique in that the majority—Oromo—has long been politically suppressed by minority ruling elites.
Most modern historians, except a few Habesha nationalists, now agree that the Oromo are indigenous to the region south of Egypt and have lived there for over 5,000 years. The invasions by Semitic groups from the Middle East, the fall of Meroë, and European colonial interventions contributed to the fragmentation of the Oromo and the rise of Amhara dominance.
Over time, various Cushitic peoples such as the Beja, Agaw, Afar, Somali, Sidama, and Kambata evolved from the original Oromo stock. Some became more “semitized” and Christianized, while others became Islamized. The Oromo proper preserved their language (Afaan Oromo) and their indigenous belief system, Wàqeffannaa, despite external pressures. Even today, elements of this belief system can be found within the religious practices of Christian and Muslim Oromo communities—an example being the celebration of Irreechaa, which Emperor Haile Selassie (himself largely Oromo) used to participate in, though it was dismissed by some as superstition.
The real problem lies in the identity crisis of the Habesha elites, who, having become Christianized and semitized, deny their roots and instead oppress the Oromo. They have historically relied on Western support to maintain power and subjugate the Oromo. Their fear of Oromo leadership is precisely what has prevented true democratization and development in Ethiopia.
The Way Forward
Democracy and development will remain elusive as long as Oromo rights and leadership are undermined. Some Oromo nationalists mistakenly criticize their peers for choosing to democratize Ethiopia rather than liberate Oromia. But democratizing Ethiopia can be a path to Oromia’s self-determination. The Habesha elite understand this threat very well, which is why they have always resisted democratization.
The only viable route to Oromo liberation has been through a combination of armed resistance and popular uprising. There can be no illusion about this. There will never be genuine democracy or development in Ethiopia so long as Oromia remains under the control of exploitative Habesha elites.
Now that the Oromo appear to have seized power, we have a historic opportunity to drive democratization and development. My advice to Habesha elites is this: Instead of lamenting the lack of democracy, support Oromo leadership and values. Accept Afaan Oromo as a national language, recognize Wàqeffannaa as a legitimate indigenous belief, and elevate Irreechaa to the status of a national holiday. Ultimately, the Oromo people alone have the right to decide on the nature of their sovereignty—whether in the form of an independent Oromia or a reimagined federal union (Oropia)through a democratic referendum.
True democracy and development are more likely to emerge from voluntary union among equal nations than from forced unity without consent. The Woyane’s claim of a “voluntary union of nations and nationalities” was never grounded in reality. Habesha elites must abandon this self-deception and allow the Oromo to determine their future.
If a democratic and inclusive union (Oropia) is possible, the Oromo will not fear it. However, national independence is preferable to continued oppression. For now, Dr. Abiy and Oromo leaders seem to favor leadership within a unified Ethiopia. To ensure the longevity of this leadership, we must practice intra-ethnic democracy and inter-ethnic authoritarianism.
Galatôma!
Read more:https://orompia.wordpress.com/2023/03/1 ... tatorship/