Does Abiy Ahmed Really Favor the Pro-Oromummà Camp Over the Pro-Amaranet Bloc?
By Fayyis Oromia*
The political spectrum in Ethiopia has undergone a unique evolution. During the feudal era, the divide was between monarchy and republic. Under the Derg regime, the debate centered on capitalism versus socialism. During the rule of the TPLF (Woyane), the contention was between ethno-federalism (language-based) and ethio-federalism (geography-based). Now, under Biltsigina’s leadership, the spectrum is crystallizing into a contest between pro-Amaranet and pro-Oromummà camps.
Amaranet/Amharic has continued its dominance—from the reign of Yekuno Amlak to the current regime of Abiy Ahmed. However, recently, Abiy appears to be leaning toward the pro-Oromummà camp, a shift that even the Americans seem to be endorsing. The ongoing visit of the U.S. Secretary of State, despite opposition from the pro-Amaranet bloc, is telling. The only step Dr. Abiy has yet to take to be fully embraced by the pro-Oromummà camp is the official promotion of Afàn Oromô as the primary working language of the federation, replacing Amharic.
Dr. Abiy succeeded by using Qérrô in ousting the TPLF from power in Finfinné Palace. Without question, he used the Amhara elite—driven by their desire for revenge against the Tigrayans—but they have no realistic path to reclaim power in Finfinné. It’s becoming increasingly clear that the pro-Oromummà camp is poised to prevail. Until then, the struggle continues between the pro-Amaranet elites—who seek to maintain Amharic dominance—and the pro-Oromummà democrats—who strive to elevate Afàn Oromô based on the Oromo people’s majority status.
For more than 745 years—from Yekuno Amlak (1270) to Abiy Ahmed (2025)—the pro-Amaranet bloc has dominated Ethiopian politics. One can hope that Abiy will be the last such ruler, and that the future will belong to pro-Oromummà democrats, thanks to the OLF, which has successfully shifted Ethiopia’s political trajectory from Amaranet dominance to an emerging Oromummà-led future.
If it is true that the TPLF attacked the ENDF in Tigray, then it was a strategic blunder—almost a suicidal move. TPLF seems delusional if it believes it can replicate its 1991 victory against the Derg. This misstep has only provided an opportunity for many Amhara and some Oromo elites to retaliate against Tigrayan elites. In Africa, any force with Western backing has the necessary tools to win. That was true for Menelik at the end of the 19th century, for Meles at the end of the 20th century, and now for Abiy Ahmed.
The pro-Amaranet camp is now effectively cornered by pro-Oromummà forces dominating Oromia’s political space. Abiy’s stance against the TPLF even convinced some pro-Amaranet actors to back the war effort, inadvertently giving his party—EPP—a survival boost with support from both Amhara and Oromo elites, and their foreign partners. Credit is due to Dr. Abiy for, at least temporarily, saving his party.
Thanks to Qérrô and Wàqa, the effort to unify Oromo liberation forces—which has persisted for at least one Gadà (era)—is finally bearing fruit. Some of us were skeptical about whether the leaders of the pro-Oromummà republican organizations (OFC and OLF) were serious about implementing their declared “Coalition for Democratic Federation.” In principle, no fundamental ideological differences prevent such a coalition; only ego might stand in the way. They need only follow the process once charted by the AFD member organizations.
Their main common ground is the goal of bilisummaa (freedom) for the Oromo people and land. Although they once differed on the method (non-violent vs. armed struggle), and may still differ on the post-freedom structure (a free Oromia within a union vs. an independent Oromia), these disagreements are reconcilable. The solution is simple:
The two methods were complementary, not contradictory. Mutual respect for each other’s approach is essential.
The question of sovereignty—whether Oromia remains in a union or becomes independent—can be decided via referendum after achieving freedom.
In the long run, they can even consider a third route: working through the existing EPP structure to achieve geo-federation, as originally envisioned by Dr. Haile Fida’s Meison. This path is not against the Oromo cause, despite what some may believe. Even Oromo republicans may move in that direction, just as Oromo prosperitans did in forming the EPP. Eventually, the ten agreed-upon opposition members (OLF, ONLF, SPLF, ALF, QDP, ANC, BPLM, GPLM, KDP, and MDP) could merge into a powerful Ethiopian party similar to the EPP.
If Oromo republicans aim to administer all of Ethiopia—not just achieve self-rule for Oromia—then a broader, inclusive organization is required. As envisioned by OLF, the goal is to transform the historical Abyssinian empire-state into a democratic community of nations that coexist peacefully, choosing their systems of governance—either within a united federal Ethiopia or as allied sovereign states in a confederation.
Oromo republicans aim to dismantle the colonial and authoritarian structures where ethnic elites, like the Tigrayans in past regimes, monopolized state power. Instead, they propose a transitional federal system rooted in democracy, self-determination, and human rights, capable of addressing historical grievances and instituting a representative political order. At the end of this transitional phase, a free and fair referendum will be held for the Oromo people—to choose between forming a federal/confederal Ethiopia or establishing an independent Oromian state.
If the Oromo people choose to remain in a federal or confederal Ethiopia, the republicans will help create a just and democratic system where Oromia enjoys full autonomy and all human rights are upheld. If the people choose independence, the republicans will ensure positive, cooperative relationships with neighboring nations—based on mutual respect and a shared market.
Following the inclusive principles established by AFD, Oromo republican organizations should work toward creating a unified front, even without full structural merger. This is why the current push to strengthen the coalition and establish a common organization is a smart move.
In the upcoming elections, the main competition may be between an Ethiopian party led by Oromo prosperitans (EPP), and a powerful coalition led by Oromo republicans (AFD). Which side will prevail—Oromo Prosperitans under Dr. Abiy, or Oromo Republicans represented by Jawar and others?
Galatôma!
Read more:https://orompia.wordpress.com/2023/03/1 ... anet-bloc/