Mask of Deception: Unraveling saga of Somali region, ONLF, and Ethiopia’s political conundrum
March 29, 2025
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (right), accompanied by Somali Region President Mustafe Muhammed (center) and his deputy Ibrahim Osman, visiting the Corridor Development Project site in Jijiga, February 2025 (Photo: Somali Regional State Communications)
By Mohamud A. Ahmed
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Addis Abeba – In the grand theater of Ethiopian politics, where narratives shift like desert sands and allegiances are as fluid as the Shebelle River during the rainy season, a paradox unfolds—one that eerily mirrors the cinematic masterpiece Face/Off. The political impasse between Dr. Abdirahman Maaday, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) chairman, and President Mustafe M. Omer, the leader of the Somali Regional State, is a duel where the lines between hero and villain blur, where the mask of deception conceals the face of truth, and where the people stand bewildered, unsure whom to trust.
Yet, beneath the surface of slogans, accusations, and political maneuvering, one question looms large: Who wears the real face of the Somali people’s aspirations, and who is merely a masked actor playing a role in a grand illusion?
Political Gambit
If one were to express the Somali region’s political crisis in mathematical terms, it would resemble a non-linear differential equation—its outcome contingent on too many interdependent variables. Dr. Abdirahman Maaday and the ONLF represent one function, historically defined by resistance, nationalism, and the struggle for autonomy. Mustafe M. Omer, on the other hand, is another function—a regional administrator navigating the federal equation, ensuring that his governance does not render the Somali Region a statistical anomaly in Ethiopia’s centralized calculus.
The complexity arises when these two functions intersect on the political graph. One side claims to represent the voice of the Somali people in its purest, most untainted form. The other asserts that governance is not about symbolism but about survival in a political ecosystem where pragmatism trumps ideology. Meanwhile, the people, caught in this web, are akin to particles in Brownian motion, drifting aimlessly between these opposing forces, unsure whether the ONLF’s legacy is still relevant or whether Mustafe’s administration is truly working for them.
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, finds himself in a precarious position, not unlike a mathematician attempting to solve a chaotic system with unknown variables. He must decipher whether the crisis is a manufactured stalemate, an ideological clash, or an existential threat to the very fabric of Ethiopian federalism.
Duel of Shadows
Like the characters in Face/Off, Maaday and Mustafe appear as mirror images of each other, but their underlying motivations remain shrouded in ambiguity. The ONLF, though officially a legal political entity, still carries the ghost of its past rebellion, making its credibility a question of perception rather than fact. Conversely, Mustafe, despite his attempts at reform and stabilization, operates within a system that rewards loyalty to the federal structure over regional autonomy.
Thus, both men engage in a political duel where perception is weaponized and truth is a casualty. The people, much like an audience watching a play where the protagonist and antagonist keep switching roles, are left wondering: Who is the true custodian of the Somali cause?
The ONLF’s rhetoric leans heavily on historical grievances, evoking memories of struggle and unfinished business. Mustafe, however, counters with the narrative of governance, economic growth, and the necessity of working within the federal structure to avoid a return to the era of marginalization and armed conflict. Both arguments have merit, yet both are incomplete without a clear verdict from history itself.
The Dilemma
Prime Minister Abiy, much like an algorithm attempting to predict the behavior of a volatile stock market, is faced with the reality that his intervention could either stabilize or escalate the crisis. If he miscalculates, the Somali Region could become Ethiopia’s next unresolved equation, an anomaly in the federal matrix that spirals out of control.
If the federal government fails to engage in a meaningful and strategic resolution, this crisis may not remain confined to a battle of words.
Too many political analysts and security experts wonder how far the ONLF may go if their grievances are left to fester without serious engagement. The Somali Region has long been a delicate geopolitical puzzle, where historical injustices linger beneath the surface like embers waiting for a gust of wind. If Prime Minister Abiy chooses to delegate this critical issue to one of his senior Prosperity Party officials, such as Aden Farah, it must come with a stern warning: mishandling the situation could trigger an unpredictable chain reaction, fracturing the southern part of Ethiopia, where serenity is not an option but an imperative. The ONLF, though transformed from a militant movement to a political entity, still commands deep emotional loyalty among a significant segment of the Somali populace, and underestimating its political weight would be a grave miscalculation.
What makes this crisis even more urgent is that Prime Minister Abiy’s recent diplomatic breakthrough in mending the rift between Ethiopia and Somalia may serve as a stark reminder of how fragile political relations are in the region. While this success could be a strategic advantage in the long run, it also amplifies the need for immediate attention to internal fractures, particularly those concerning the ONLF.
Ethiopia’s regional foes, ever watchful for vulnerabilities, may see unresolved grievances in the Somali region as an opportunity to fuel unrest and exploit Ethiopia’s geopolitical equilibrium. If the federal government fails to engage in a meaningful and strategic resolution, this crisis may not remain confined to a battle of words—it could birth an instability that shakes Ethiopia’s fragile cohesion at its core.
Though some serious regional political non-interference has been observed over the past seven years under Abiy’s tenure—a level of autonomy never seen before in the region’s history—the progress achieved, the sense of belonging felt, and the governance improvements made could all be undone if this impasse is not resolved.
The Somali region has experienced a rare period of political stability and engagement within the federal framework, but ignoring legitimate concerns could unravel the very gains that have created a newfound sense of inclusion. The Prime Minister must recognize that in a nation teetering on multiple fault lines, leaving one crack unaddressed could see it widen into a chasm that consumes everything in its wake.
As the North remains a source of unpredictability, with tensions simmering in Tigray, Amhara, and even parts of Oromia, the prime minister cannot afford for the South to become another front of political and security concerns. Containing the Somali region’s volatility is not just a regional issue; it is a broader strategy to ensure that Ethiopia’s internal equilibrium is not shattered while external pressures mount. By prioritizing a resolution with ONLF, the Prime Minister could preempt the risk of seeing Southern Ethiopia become another powder keg while the Northern crises remain unresolved.
Poetry of Power
Power, like an optical illusion, shifts its form depending on the angle from which one views it. For too long, the Somali people have been spectators in a theater where actors change, but the script remains the same. Today, they are forced to choose between two competing narratives, yet neither side has fully laid bare its soul.
goes an old Somali proverb.A man wears many masks, but the eyes never lie,
The time has come for the masks to fall, for illusions to fade, and for the Somali people to see clearly. Prime Minister Abiy must intervene not as a referee but as an arbiter of truth. He must seek clarity before the crisis escalates beyond his control.
For if the face of power remains concealed beneath layers of deception, then the people of the Somali Region will forever be trapped in a paradox—chasing ghosts in a mirage, caught between history and the future, never knowing which face to trust.
And in that uncertainty, the fate of a region, and perhaps a nation, hangs in the balance.
Mohamud A. Ahmed (Prof.) is a columnist, political analyst, and researcher at Greenlight Advisors Group, Somali Region State.
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