Consensus on Federal Union at Cost of Independent Oromia and Integrative Oropia?
By Fayyis Oromia*
According to the recent development, EPP as merger party of EERDF will continue to be Ethnofederalist promoter of democratic federal union, keeping the existing language based federation. When I hear how Ob. Leenco Baati of the ODF was involved in promoting the Medemer/Ida’amü/Synergy project of the PM, it is clear that ODF is part of EPP. This vision was originally from Ob. Léncô Latà. On the other hand, few months ago, about six Ethiofederalist parties (supporters of an integrative Oropia, i.e Oromummà led Ethiopia) like AG7 merged and fostered a consolidated strong party (ECS) as preparation for the election 2020 in Ethiopia. Such plan was originally from Dr. Haile Fida. Confederalist forces like AFD are now trying to strengthen their cooperation. Their goal of national independence with possible union (independent Oromia) was persued by Bàrô Tumsà. Surely, the ruling party (EPP) will be challenged by these two opposition camps (AFD and ECS). Ethiofederalists are trying to repeat the CUD (Qinijit) phenomen of 2005. Can the Confederalists forge a strong opposition to challenge the incumbent and Ethiofederalists? Time will show us. Anyways the competition during the election 2020 will be between Ethiofederalist ECS vs Confederalit AFD vs Ethnofederalist EPP. Who of the three can prevail will be seen in due time. Can Confederalists like the OLF, ONLF, SLF, BGLM, GPLM and TPLF foster a strong front and challenge both the ECS and EPP or can the TPLF join AFD to form a competitive Confederalist camp? At the moment, it seems that all Oromo forces in particular and Ethiopian forces in general agreed on realizing democratic federal Union and gave up the other two post-freedom types of sovereignty (independent Oromia and integrative Oropia). Few years back Gadaa.com came out with an interesting short comment: “An Alliance of Necessity: Last Ditch Effort to Save the Crumbling Empire” and it put on the Featured part of the website the following opinion:
“Meles planning to replace UDJ with a puppet UDJ
Meles once planned to replace the real UDJ with a pro-Govt UDJ faction, the one led by Prof. Mesfin. The aging Professor was assisted by the state media ETV. He believed closing the gap between opposition parties and uniting all opposition parties under one “Medrek” umbrella will give more influence to supporters of “group rights” over “individual rights”. Thus Prof. Mesfin officially joined the Lidetu Ayalew camp by attacking any opposition coalition that wants to remove Meles Zenawi. Unity for Democracy and Justice (UDJ) leaders said the incumbent Ethiopian People Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) is conspiring against the survival of its main rival by supporting intra-party cracks which may lead to violence.”
The above opinion of Gadaa.com helped me think over the possible reason for quasi-alliance between Ethiofederalists (believers of geography based federation in order to save Ethiopia from disintegration endangered by ethnic federalism) with hegemonist TPLF against the Ethnofederalists like Medrek. What are the ideological differences between the blocks mentioned in the title of this article? Let me put it in short as follows:
– Ethiofederalists do demonize the right of nations to self-administration and to self-determination as something “gosa or ethnic politics”. They still dream to bring back the old system in which all nations will be assimilated to Amarigna speakers. To them, it is “something natural” to claim Amharic be a national language of Ethiopia and all other languages to be subordinates. Thinking otherwise, to make Afàn Oromô a national language and demote Amarigna to a regional language is, for them, like committing a crime. They, of course, still tell us “nationalities will have right to develop their right.” For them, allowing certain songs of different languages in their Amarigna-dominated media is enough. That is why they still work in Amarigna and allow few Oromo songs to be transmitted in their media. They never dare to work in Afàn Oromô.
– Hegemonist TPLFites just give only a lip service for everything good including freedom, democracy and the right of nations to “self-determination upto independence,” but they diligently work for their own dominance in the empire. For them, what matters most is only their power and profit. As far as any movement does not challenge these two, they allow it to function in the empire. The moment any movement opposes their power and their amassing of profit, it will be called “anti-peace” and be eliminated.
– Ethnofederalists in seem to be the hope of nations in the near future. They struggle for a federation of autonomous nations in Ethiopia. Their democratic move is an anti-thesis of the dictatorial hegemonists described above. Their vision of forging and keeping the union in which collective rights of all nations and nationalities as well as their wish of promoting individual rights of all citizens in all national areas of the federation is very exemplary even for all African multinational states, formed by colonialists, to follow in the future to liberate their respective nations and nationalities in context of the respective colonially-constructed boundaries. The only thing what the Ethnofederalists lack is the gut to push for self-determination of nations per referendum. This is their difference with the far-sighted unionists, who want to accomplish the lasting solution for the troubled region.
– Confederalists are solution for the far future in comparison to federalists who are only good for the near future. The troubled Ethiopia or the Horn of Africa needs a meticulous and long-lasting solution for all the mess it has because of divisions done based on the colonial past. All conflicts in the Horn are results of colonial legacy. The conflict between Eritrea and Tigai, between Djibouti and Eritrean Afar (Eritrea), between Abyssinia and Oromia, between Abyssinia and Somalia), as well as even between Somaliland and Somalia, etc are troubles originally caused by the colonial divisions. Now, the unionists want to get rid of this legacy and they are planning an all-inclusive solution for the region. Their goal is beyond that of mere federalists. They want to move from the hitherto unity of dominated nations in Ethiopia through federation of autonomous nations envisioned by Ethnofederalists to the lasting destiny – a union of liberated nations in the region called Horn of Africa.
When we look at the comment of Gadaa.com, it is not surprising to observe that the conservative Ethiofederalists were rallying behind the hegemonists, where they were trying to hinder Oromo movement, which seems to proceed first to self-administration in a form of true ethnic federation, which is the vision of Medrek and then a further move to self-determination in a form of a confederation between liberated nations, which is the goal of PAFD. Both the Ethiofederalists and the hegemonists are in a great fear of losing both their power and their empire to the democratic Ethnofederalists and the democratic Confederalists. The political evolution/revolution in the empire was/is/will be as follows: from rule of the dictatorial ethiofascists (Derg) —— and dictatorial Ethnofascists (Woyane) —— to the near future democratic federalists —— and then to far future democratic Confederalists as the end goal. Specially, Gadaa.com did hit head of the nail: it is “alliance of necessity” between those forces which do want to maintain the hitherto unity of dominated nations in the empire. It is very scary for the unitarists and hegemonists to look at the currently coordinated move of all nations to forge first a union of federated nations as a mid-goal towards the union of liberated nations as an end-goal. Let the unitarists and hegemonists build whatever alliance they can, but they surely never be in a position to hinder the forward movement of all nations to their end-goal, however long it may take.
Interestingly, an internationally famous journal, the Economist under economist.com published the following progress about East African Community (EAC):
“East Africa’s common market, it really may happen
The region’s leaders take another step towards building a common market. Free-trade fingers crossed, some time this summer goods should start being sold without tariffs across borders within the five countries of the East African Community (EAC). The new common market will take in 130m-plus people in Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. The next step is monetary union, with political federation a far remoter prospect. The agreement signed at the EAC’s headquarters in the Tanzanian city of Arusha was a first step. Optimists say the EAC should join free-trade blocks in southern and western Africa before 2030. The EAC is working off a small base. Its combined GDP of $75 billion is a sixth of Belgium’s. But scrapping tariffs should boost regional trade and improve competitiveness. The EAC should be better placed to trade with Congo, Ethiopia and Sudan. And if it can build its own wider manufacturing base, its goods may start to compete with cheap stuff from China. Kenya, which has the region’s strongest manufacturers, retailers and banks, is sure to gain most.
But for the EAC to succeed, others must win too. Rwanda and Burundi should benefit from cheaper and quicker transport of goods to and from the ports of Mombasa and Dar es Salaam. Uganda is well placed to expand its agriculture for export. Tanzania is less certain to gain. It wants to keep some taxes on goods from Kenya. And it is wary of the free movement of labour, fearing that, in many professions, pushier and better-educated Kenyans will come and snatch plum jobs. Faustin Mbundu, a Rwandan who chairs the East African Business Council, says the real benefits of the common market will accrue only with more and better roads, railways and power stations. Some say a new capital for the EAC must be built from scratch, perhaps on a shore of Lake Victoria, with a new international airport to match Nairobi’s. But simpler things will be needed a lot sooner. For instance, border crossings will have to be kept open at night. Mr Mbundu wants to end the scourge of informal police checkpoints. Above all, the governments will have to avoid policy reversals that pander to their own industries, a tendency that has hitherto stood in the way of a proper common market.”
Of course, I did write in one of my past articles that the move of EAC can be a very good example for vision of the Confederalists in forging far future union of liberated nations in the Horn. One of the die-hard unitarist websites, wrote the following comment regarding the above move of EAC:
“While TPLF is busy dividing us as a nation and selling off our lands, our neighbors are moving ahead with the modern times. TPLF should look no further than our neighbors to see how much backward and outdated its methods and policies are. Also on the same token, the Ethiopian people will soon have a good local example to refer to when debating on the future of our nation after the demise of TPLF.”
Here, we see how the unitarists did accuse the hegemonist TPLF. For the position of the unitarits, TPLF as a hegemonist party went too far for allowing even the fake ethnic federation. They still dream to rewind the political evolution/revolution now happening in the Horn back to a unitary country. For them, the fake federalists aka the hegemonists are better than the forward pushing genuine Ethnofederalists and radical unionists. That is why they opt to save the hegemonist TPLF from being overtaken by the Ethnofederalists. Unitarists like it or not, we, all nations in the empire, want to move forward from the fake federation of TPLF through the true Ethnofederation to the lasting union of liberated nations, but never backward to the unitary country. But, can the democratic Ethiofederation opted by AG7 be an alternative to democratic Ethnofederation? It is clear that Amhara elites prefer Ethiofederation because of Amharigna as the only federal language. Tegaru elites want to keep Ethnofederation due to their insecurity as minority. To tell the truth, as far as democracy is rule of the game in Ethiopia and Afàn Oromô be the primary working language, the Oromo can accept both Ethiofederalists and Ethnofederalists.
This way or that way, democratic Ethiopia will be defacto Oropia. The used to be “limimix poletika” of unitarists in relation to hegemonists can never save the crumbling empire for all freedom fighters and all democratic forces are trying to come together to forge an effective and efficient alliance against the dictatorial regime in Ethiopia and to build a common home for all nations and citizens in a form of federation or confederation in Ethiopia/the Horn, but surely not a unitary country. Now, it seems that both dictatorial Derg like Ethiofascists and the Ethnofascist Woyane have already lost; both democratic Ethiocenteralists and Ethnoseparatists are moving to the middle of the spectrum; the future competing forces will be democratic Ethiofederalists (prefering integrative Oropia) like ECS of AG7, Confederalists (promoter of independent Oromia) likre PAFD of OLF and Ethnofederalists (opting for democratic federal Oromia) like EPP of ODF. These three democratic camps need to help Dr. Abiy’s adminstraion to promote the transition. The question yet to be answered is: who will succeed to power in the ongoing transition to democracy and in the coming election? Ethiofederalists, Confederalists or Ethnofederalists? Compromise solution can be consensus on the middle ground of democratic federal Union. May Wàqa lead us in the right direction!
Galatôma!
Read more:https://orompia.wordpress.com/2018/12/1 ... over-tplf/