The analyst at the centre of the infamous ‘kompromat’ dossier about Donald Trump has said that the US President and Vladimir Putin are lining up a ‘win-win’ over the Ukraine war.
Igor Danchenko warned that the two leaders are carving out ‘a new status quo’ regardless of what the Kremlin may or may not have on Trump.
The former confidential FBI informant spoke during a momentous few days that included Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s clash with Trump and Vice President JD Vance at the White House, and Sir Keir Starmer’s subsequent show of solidarity with the wartime leader.
He described Trump’s inner circle including Elon Musk and UFC president Dana White, and business courtiers including Meta billionaire Mark Zuckerberg, as ‘showing oligarch rule is possible in the US.’
On the issue of whether the long speculated about kompromat exists, Danchenko restated that it was a ‘serious counter-intelligence matter’ which he was not prepared to discuss in public.
‘The Trump administration is giving more than a face-saving exit to Russia,’ he said. ‘It is a win-win for Russia and the US, and a loss-loss for Ukraine and the EU as a whole.
‘As he had signalled, Trump is cutting the Gordian knot of war to Putin’s great relief, thus restoring Russia’s full great power status in an instant with almost no strings attached.
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‘By the Gordian knot, I mean the gridlock that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become, the single most important issue largely determining transatlantic relations.
‘It is existential for Ukraine and has some existential overtones for Russia. Europe also sees it as existential, but the US much less so, and Trump manifests that. Putin and Trump already present this as a new status quo, and they will get the most out of it for themselves and their countries.’
Donald Trump has so far pursued a course favourable to Russia in relation to the all-out invasion of Ukraine (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Donald Trump has so far pursued a course favourable to Russia in relation to the all-out invasion of Ukraine (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Danchenko, a Russian emigre now living in Arlington, Virginia, spoke as Sir Keir Starmer and European leaders scramble to shore up Ukraine’s position vis-à-vis the White House and the Kremlin, including through a new UK military support package.
Danchenko also identified the risk factors in the new international order emerging almost daily, including the gains made by the far right at polls across Europe over the past 12 months.
This was evident in the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany becoming the strongest political force in parts of the country after a national election on February 23.
‘Extreme nationalism, fuelled by populism and unaddressed migration issues is the biggest risk propelling more extreme actors to power and rendering the centre moderates powerless,’ Danchenko said.
Igor Danchenko (centre) arrives at the Albert V. Bryan US courthouse for his trial on October 11, 2022 in Virginia (Picture: Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Igor Danchenko (centre) arrives at the Albert V. Bryan US courthouse for his trial on October 11, 2022 in Virginia (Picture: Alex Wong/Getty Images)
‘We witness a prelude to that in today’s America, Germany, Russia and in the UK. It is tempting to fix things by authoritarian practices.
‘China is arguably emerging as a major challenge to the other G19 countries in the G20 international forum, and others.
‘Its brand of authoritarianism, like Russia’s, is too appealing and tempting.
‘Whether Western countries can find a new balance is a big question.’
Danchenko, 46, was thrust into the spotlight after it emerged that he had been the primary subsource for the so-called Steele dossier, named after the ex-British spy Christopher Steele, who compiled the report.
Trump, then in his first term, and his supporters claimed that subsequent prosecutions of Danchenko and others would unmask a ‘witch hunt’ against him.
Igor Danchenko’s network of sources in Russia provided the basis for the Steele dossier (Picture: courtesy of Igor Danchenko)
Igor Danchenko’s network of sources in Russia provided the basis for the Steele dossier (Picture: courtesy of Igor Danchenko)
The intelligence gatherer was acquitted of lying to the FBI but has had to face up to being put on trial by the country he was working for and being branded a traitor in Russia after being outed as Steele’s main source
Asked about the existence of the kompromat, Danchenko replied: ‘Recognising the great public interest, I have always strongly believed the topic to be a serious counter-intelligence matter in terms of foreign influence and election interference, recruitment, campaign penetration and such like. I was never prepared to discuss this in any public setting.
‘I believe that playing it in public would only further undermine US national security and give more room for cognitive wars.
‘More than enough was said already, for example, in the US Senate Committee on Intelligence’s report in August 2020.
‘Publicly adding fuel to the kompromat fire or taking steps to extinguish it immediately makes me biased.
‘I also owe it to my colleagues, sources and family to not to act as a spoiler. My independence as an analyst is valuable and helps me avoid bias and influence.’
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, Britain’s Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and France’s President Emmanuel Macron embrace (Picture: Justin Tallis/Pool/AFP via Getty)
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, Britain’s Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and France’s President Emmanuel Macron embrace (Picture: Justin Tallis/Pool/AFP via Getty)
The dossier was described as the ‘Russiagate hoax’ by Joe Rogan and Elon Musk in the former’s YouTube podcast at the end of 2024.
But Danchenko’s reliability as a confidential informant was attested to by FBI witnesses at his trial, where he was acquitted on all counts.
Trump’s alignment with Moscow — including both countries voting against a resolution at the UN in support of Ukraine — has now led to renewed speculation over whether the Kremlin does hold the material.
However Danchenko views the truth as almost irrelevant as a range of actors use the information space to advance their aims.
The 'kompromat' riddle
Known as the ‘Steele dossier’, a collection of memos compiled by the former British spy Christopher Steele contained unverified claims that Russia had ‘kompromat’ of a sexual nature on Trump.
The dossier was published by BuzzFeed 10 days before Trump took office in January 2017.
Danchenko then became a confidential FBI informant before his identity was made public and he was put on trial for allegedly making false statements to the agency, of which which he was aquitted.
It also emerged that Steele’s private investigation company, Orbis, had been subcontracted by Washington DC-based research firm Fusion GPS, which in turn was paid by Hilary Clinton’s 2016 election campaign and the Democratic National Committee to look into Trump.
Danchenko has previously stood by the vast majority of the material in the dossier but insisted he had no idea the raw information he gathered would be compiled in one document and released into the public realm without any nuance.
In 2019, Trump’s attorney general appointed special counsel John Durham to examine the FBI’s investigation into the purported links between Russia and Trump’s presidential campaign four years earlier.
Danchenko was charged in 2021 as part of Durham’s probe but was acquitted in court.
‘The speculation has come back as a farce,’ he said.
‘Too many forces are trying to capitalise on perceived controversies, some malign actors, some simply searching for easy sensationalist explanations.’
Danchenko believes that Trump’s second term in the Oval Office will bring about a ‘wave of politicisation of intelligence’ which will only weaken the West’s security framework.
‘It was also fairly clear since Joe Biden began really losing touch with reality a year ago that Trump’s victory was highly likely,’ he said.
‘Renewed speculation over Russia’s intelligence workings and receptiveness of some to their overtures are not going to change that.
‘My extensive professional experience and my ugly encounter with an unchecked US Special Counsel John Durham tells me two things.
‘These themes have already been factored into US and Russian calculations one way or another.
‘A wave of politicisation of intelligence and the justice system can only weaken US and other Western intelligence services and their counter-intelligence work by exposing them to domestic and foreign manipulations. The next big casualty then is the rule of law.’
Danchenko also put a red flag against the political rise of Trump-supporting new media tycoons in the US, including Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency.
‘Elon Musk’s meteoric rise to power in Washington alongside President Trump signals that not only patrimony bordering on autocracy, but also oligarchic rule in the US is possible,’ he said.
‘Multiple checks and balances can be circumvented with relative ease through nominally legal creeping institutional capture: Supreme Court appointments, purges of intelligence services and diplomatic corps and such like. Equally concerning is the ease with which all major US CEOs lined up at Trump’s first calling.’
Trump is refusing to pay £290,000 in legal fees after a lawsuit he brought against Orbis on data protection grounds over the Steele dossier was dismissed.
The tycoon’s lawyers had argued that the claims in the dossier were ‘egregiously inaccurate’ and contained ‘numerous false, phoney or made-up allegations.’
On February 27, Steele said on X: ‘The true extent of Trump’s respect for the UK and its institutions is clear from his failure to obey multiple orders issued by His Majesty’s High Court.
‘As a result of today’s latest breach, his legal team have now been debarred from our case.’
The next hearing is due in April.