(Abiy Ahmed wrote an opinion in Aljazeera thru the former Ethiopian President Mulatu Wirtu, warning to the world that Eritrea may soon invade and occupy Ethiopia, as Rwanda is doing in eastern DR Congo now. Eritrea has already started mobilizing everyone up to 65 years old. Thousands of the Amhara Fano who completed their military training in Eritrea are returning to the Gonder region of Ethiopia)
OPINION,
To avoid another conflict in the Horn of Africa, now is the time to act
Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki is working to reignite conflict in northern Ethiopia. He must be stopped.
by Mulatu Teshome Wirtu, Published On 17 Feb 202517 Feb 2025
The Horn of Africa is a turbulent region whose history and contemporary realities are intertwined with those of the Middle East. Just like the Middle East, it straddles strategic waters that sustain millions of people and connect continents and thus is a theatre of fierce geopolitical rivalry. Great powers and regional players perpetually circle its vast strategic resources, leading to conflicts that ravage the region and its peoples.
Eritrea has long been an eager participant in this theatre of discord. For nearly half a century, Eritrea has been involved to differing degrees in almost every conflict in the region. Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia have all been affected by its machinations. The ambitions of Isaias Afwerki, the first and only president of Eritrea since 1993, have seen his country get involved in many conflicts miles away from its borders, including those in the Great Lakes region. It seems Isaias is not just drawn to conflict but he seeks it out and thrives in it, like a pyromaniac who can’t resist setting fires.
Isaias’s 32-year reign in Eritrea is a cautionary tale. Since independence, the country has lacked all the traditional tools of governance that most nations take for granted. No constitution. No parliament. No civil service. In Eritrea, there is only one executive, legislative and legal authority – President Isaias.
In Isaias’s Eritrea, military service is also mandatory and indefinite. Young Eritreans often risk everything to try to escape a lifetime in the president’s military. As such, the major export of the Eritrean state, apart from illicit gold, is the large number of young men and women who risk their lives to illegally migrate to neighbouring countries and Europe. Eritreans flee from their country in droves to escape forced conscription into military service and other dystopian realities created by the regime.
War is the main business and preoccupation of the Eritrean state. Stirring conflict here and there, supporting rebels, insurgents or governments seeking war and division throughout the region seems to be the raison d’etre of the Eritrean state.
Today, Isaias is once again engaged in manoeuvres that are as destructive as they are predictable.
After years of strong animosity towards and direct clashes with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) – the party that ruled Ethiopia’s Tigray region since 1975 and waged war against the federal government from 2020 to 2022 – Isaias is now trying to exploit divisions within the group’s ranks.
The history here is long and bitter. In the late 1990s, a falling-out between Eritrea and Ethiopia erupted into a bloody war. After years of bloodshed, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed managed to secure a peace agreement between the two countries in 2018 and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts.
Regrettably, reconciliation with Eritrea did not deliver long-term peace dividends. Because, for Isaias, building trade and infrastructure connections between Ethiopia and Eritrea was of no interest. He had no appetite for economic cooperation despite it being beneficial to both countries.
When the TPLF launched its ill-fated bid to reclaim power in Ethiopia by unseating Prime Minister Abiy in 2020, Isaias saw his chance. Eritrean forces surged into Tigray, leaving devastation in their wake. The 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement, which ended the conflict between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government, was a diplomatic triumph for Ethiopia and the African Union. But it was a personal setback for Isaias, who thrives in conflict and sees peace as an obstacle to his efforts to expand his influence.
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It soon became clear that Isaias wanted the conflict in the Tigray region to continue indefinitely and Ethiopia to bleed into oblivion. To invalidate the Pretoria Peace Agreement, he engineered a militia in Ethiopia’s Amhara state. More recently, he has also found common cause and joined forces with elements within the TPLF who were unhappy with the peace agreement.
His cynical and dangerous machinations are now threatening to undo the Pretoria Peace Agreement. A faction of the TPLF and its armed supporters are openly expressing their intent to dismantle the interim administration set up as per the peace agreement and tear up the whole peace deal. The implications of such a development would be catastrophic, both for Ethiopia and the wider region.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. To Ethiopia’s west, Sudan is consumed by civil war. To the east, Somalia is struggling to rebuild after decades of gradual collapse. Across the Sahel, extremist groups are gaining ground. A possible return of conflict to the Tigray region must be assessed in this context. A belt of chaos stretching from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa would be catastrophic. It would embolden groups like al-Shabab and ISIL (ISIS), creating new havens for terror and disrupting global trade through the Red Sea.
The consequences of renewed conflict in the Horn wouldn’t stop at Africa’s borders. Waves of refugees would head for Europe and beyond, further straining already fragile systems. Extremist ideologies would find fertile ground, their reach extending into the Middle East. Global powers, from Washington to Beijing to Brussels, have a stake in what happens here. The Horn’s stability is a shared interest.
The world must act. Diplomatic pressure is needed to deter those who want to see an end to peace, like Isaias. The Pretoria Peace Agreement must be defended. Regional cooperation must be incentivised with investments in trade, infrastructure and governance. This is not just an African problem. It’s a global challenge.
If the Horn descends into chaos, the ripple effects will be felt everywhere. But if peace takes root, the region could become a bridge – linking continents, fostering trade and unlocking potential. The choice is stark, and the time to act is now.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance
Dr Mulatu Teshome Wirtu is the former President of Ethiopia. He has held key roles in diplomacy and governance with a career spanning diplomacy, economic policy, and le
Re: Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed is scared: Issaias may invade Ethiopia soon
The scared Abiy Ahmed may attempt preemptive strike, using the newly acquired drones and his Russian made Sukoy jet fighters at Eritrea's presidential office at Adi Halo and the ammunition depots near Dekemhare, Adi Mengoti, Mogolo, Serejaka and Barberela near Adi Nefas.
Given the recent confiscation of Ethiopia's artillery and drone ammunition from the Azebaijani ships destined to Ethiopia, in port Massawa. It is likely Abiy Ahmed may strike first, using the pretext to occupy Assab.
Unless, Abiy has the Tigrayan TDF on his side, this war may not be short.
Given the recent confiscation of Ethiopia's artillery and drone ammunition from the Azebaijani ships destined to Ethiopia, in port Massawa. It is likely Abiy Ahmed may strike first, using the pretext to occupy Assab.
Unless, Abiy has the Tigrayan TDF on his side, this war may not be short.
Last edited by Mesob on 17 Feb 2025, 17:33, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed is scared: Issaias may invade Ethiopia soon
Essayas is not panicking at all! What does that mean.
It means he is part of the game the ferenjis are playing, period. They tell him what moves to take. The ferenjis wanted to kill the top 99% of the tplf leaders and he did exactly that by invading, all Tigray leaders were killed in action. አገው getachew and አገው debretseon are spared, of course.
Interesting times are coming, they all being exposed as the pressure from Amara is increasing
It means he is part of the game the ferenjis are playing, period. They tell him what moves to take. The ferenjis wanted to kill the top 99% of the tplf leaders and he did exactly that by invading, all Tigray leaders were killed in action. አገው getachew and አገው debretseon are spared, of course.
Interesting times are coming, they all being exposed as the pressure from Amara is increasing
Re: Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed is scared: Issaias may invade Ethiopia soon
Eritrea is the only country in the world that has never invaded another country, and it will remain that way until the end of the world. 
Re: Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed is scared: Issaias may invade Ethiopia soon
Who will win this upcoming conflict between Abiy Ahmed's Oromumma and Issaias Afeworki's Shaebia?
In My view, it is likely, anyone who has the backing of Tigray will win this conflict. To the Fano Amahara forces, they have no choice, the main force threatening the existence of the Amahara people or the Amhara inspired Ethiopia, is, the Oromumma force of Abiy Ahmed. Amharas can not afford to remain neutral.
To the Tigrayans, there are two choices, either remain neutral and wait out or side with Issaias against the larger Oromumma forces and life continues as it is now. However, if Abiy Ahmed wins this conflict completely against Eritrea, the Tigrayan TPLF will not fair better under Oromumma either.
In this conflict it is obvious, the stronger the Abiy Ahmed Oromumma forces become in the region, the weaker the Amharas, the Tigrayans and the Shaebia forces become.
For Issaias Afeworki, unless he makes a bolder move beyond the concept of the provincial Eritrea, he will perish and thrown to the dust bins of history. Issaias has to work harder to unify and arm the Amahara Fano and the Tigrayan forces to his side, for this he needs a new vision for a unified confederated nation. In the future, Amharas and the Tigrayans should be able to have full and free access to the Red Sea with roads directly joining Humera to Marsa Teklay thru the Teseney-Kerkebet valley, or Gonder and Adigrat to Massawa port, and the Wello region to Assab port.
In this new alignment of forces, the Amahara Fano, the Tigrayan TPLF, the Eritrean Shaebia forces, either they survive together or they will perish and become the subjects of the Oromumma concept.
-------------------------
This is how Issaias responded to Abiy Ahmed today:
Eritrea Responds to Ethiopia’s former "figure-head" President, Mr. Mulatu Teshome
The Pancea does not Lie in Externalizing the Conflict or Scapegoating Eritrea
In classical fashion, Ethiopia’s former figure-head President, Mr. Mulatu Teshome, raises a false-flag alarm to accuse Eritrea for stoking a “new conflict in the Horn of Africa”. Audacious claim is precisely intended to conceal and rationalize a war-mongering agenda. The facts are otherwise crystal-clear:
1. Contrary to distorted historical accounts that Mr. Mulatua attempts to project, Eritrea and Ethiopia went to war in 1998 precisely because the TPLF-led Ethiopian regime occupied sovereign Eritrean territories - including Badme, Adi Murug and other places - in flagrant violation of international law and the OAU cardinal principle on the sanctity of colonial boundaries.
2. Even after the costly war, Ethiopia continued to defy international law and occupy sovereign Eritrean territories in breach of the Arbitral EEBC Award for twenty long years. Mulatua endorsed – even if his authority was arguably nominal - the violation of international law as well as the “regime change” agendas of regional destabilization of the Melles regime during his Presidency in those times (2013-2018).
3. Eritrea normalized ties with Ethiopia in 2018 when the Abiy Government publicly announced its readiness for the full and unequivocal acceptance and implementation of the EEBC Award of 2002. Eritrea reciprocated in good-faith and worked in earnest to foster and nurture good-neighbourly ties with Ethiopia on the basis of full respect of each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
4. But soon, Ethiopia was embroiled in a deadly conflict with its Tigray region when the latter unleashed what was widely termed as a War of Insurrection on the night of 3 November 2020. Eritrea gave sanctuary to the contingent of the Ethiopian Northern Command who escaped from coordinated and massive assaults in the TPLF “blitzkrieg”. The TPLF’s war plans also included massive and phased attacks on Eritrea.
5. Eritrea’s involvement in the imposed war was dictated by these circumstances as well as the request of the Ethiopian Government. Shameful and unconscionable acts of backstabbing aside, the Ethiopian Government and its Defense establishments officially and publicly paid tribute to Eritrea’s indispensable role during Ethiopia’s dark days.
6. As underlined in previous occasions, the Pretoria Agreement is an exclusive matter for the Ethiopian Government and its internal protagonists. Eritrea has neither the interest nor the appetite to obstruct or tamper with a purely internal Ethiopian affair.
7. Indeed, Eritrea duly re-deployed its troops within its internationally recognized sovereign borders. Still, those who never accepted the EEBC Arbitral Award in good-faith, or harbour some intent in fomenting conflict, have and continue to peddle false allegations of Eritrean troop presence in “the border areas”— apparent euphemisms/references to Badme and other similar territories.
8. The ill-intent and provocations have not been confined to these acts only. For reasons that are difficult to fathom, the Ethiopian Federal Government has unleashed, in the past months, an intensive and unwarranted campaign of provocation against Eritrea through its “thinly-veiled” agenda of acquiring ports and maritime land “legally if possible and militarily if necessary”.
9. The commotion and disquiet precipitated by Ethiopia’s opaque MOU with “Somaliland” remains another element of regional tension. Ethiopia is also embroiled in another vicious internal war in the Amhara Region.
10. In a nutshell, the myriad problems besetting the region stem and find their fulcrum in Ethiopia; not elsewhere. And the panacea does not lie in externalizing the conflict or scapegoating Eritrea.
Yemane G. Meskel Minister of Information
In My view, it is likely, anyone who has the backing of Tigray will win this conflict. To the Fano Amahara forces, they have no choice, the main force threatening the existence of the Amahara people or the Amhara inspired Ethiopia, is, the Oromumma force of Abiy Ahmed. Amharas can not afford to remain neutral.
To the Tigrayans, there are two choices, either remain neutral and wait out or side with Issaias against the larger Oromumma forces and life continues as it is now. However, if Abiy Ahmed wins this conflict completely against Eritrea, the Tigrayan TPLF will not fair better under Oromumma either.
In this conflict it is obvious, the stronger the Abiy Ahmed Oromumma forces become in the region, the weaker the Amharas, the Tigrayans and the Shaebia forces become.
For Issaias Afeworki, unless he makes a bolder move beyond the concept of the provincial Eritrea, he will perish and thrown to the dust bins of history. Issaias has to work harder to unify and arm the Amahara Fano and the Tigrayan forces to his side, for this he needs a new vision for a unified confederated nation. In the future, Amharas and the Tigrayans should be able to have full and free access to the Red Sea with roads directly joining Humera to Marsa Teklay thru the Teseney-Kerkebet valley, or Gonder and Adigrat to Massawa port, and the Wello region to Assab port.
In this new alignment of forces, the Amahara Fano, the Tigrayan TPLF, the Eritrean Shaebia forces, either they survive together or they will perish and become the subjects of the Oromumma concept.
-------------------------
This is how Issaias responded to Abiy Ahmed today:
Eritrea Responds to Ethiopia’s former "figure-head" President, Mr. Mulatu Teshome
The Pancea does not Lie in Externalizing the Conflict or Scapegoating Eritrea
In classical fashion, Ethiopia’s former figure-head President, Mr. Mulatu Teshome, raises a false-flag alarm to accuse Eritrea for stoking a “new conflict in the Horn of Africa”. Audacious claim is precisely intended to conceal and rationalize a war-mongering agenda. The facts are otherwise crystal-clear:
1. Contrary to distorted historical accounts that Mr. Mulatua attempts to project, Eritrea and Ethiopia went to war in 1998 precisely because the TPLF-led Ethiopian regime occupied sovereign Eritrean territories - including Badme, Adi Murug and other places - in flagrant violation of international law and the OAU cardinal principle on the sanctity of colonial boundaries.
2. Even after the costly war, Ethiopia continued to defy international law and occupy sovereign Eritrean territories in breach of the Arbitral EEBC Award for twenty long years. Mulatua endorsed – even if his authority was arguably nominal - the violation of international law as well as the “regime change” agendas of regional destabilization of the Melles regime during his Presidency in those times (2013-2018).
3. Eritrea normalized ties with Ethiopia in 2018 when the Abiy Government publicly announced its readiness for the full and unequivocal acceptance and implementation of the EEBC Award of 2002. Eritrea reciprocated in good-faith and worked in earnest to foster and nurture good-neighbourly ties with Ethiopia on the basis of full respect of each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
4. But soon, Ethiopia was embroiled in a deadly conflict with its Tigray region when the latter unleashed what was widely termed as a War of Insurrection on the night of 3 November 2020. Eritrea gave sanctuary to the contingent of the Ethiopian Northern Command who escaped from coordinated and massive assaults in the TPLF “blitzkrieg”. The TPLF’s war plans also included massive and phased attacks on Eritrea.
5. Eritrea’s involvement in the imposed war was dictated by these circumstances as well as the request of the Ethiopian Government. Shameful and unconscionable acts of backstabbing aside, the Ethiopian Government and its Defense establishments officially and publicly paid tribute to Eritrea’s indispensable role during Ethiopia’s dark days.
6. As underlined in previous occasions, the Pretoria Agreement is an exclusive matter for the Ethiopian Government and its internal protagonists. Eritrea has neither the interest nor the appetite to obstruct or tamper with a purely internal Ethiopian affair.
7. Indeed, Eritrea duly re-deployed its troops within its internationally recognized sovereign borders. Still, those who never accepted the EEBC Arbitral Award in good-faith, or harbour some intent in fomenting conflict, have and continue to peddle false allegations of Eritrean troop presence in “the border areas”— apparent euphemisms/references to Badme and other similar territories.
8. The ill-intent and provocations have not been confined to these acts only. For reasons that are difficult to fathom, the Ethiopian Federal Government has unleashed, in the past months, an intensive and unwarranted campaign of provocation against Eritrea through its “thinly-veiled” agenda of acquiring ports and maritime land “legally if possible and militarily if necessary”.
9. The commotion and disquiet precipitated by Ethiopia’s opaque MOU with “Somaliland” remains another element of regional tension. Ethiopia is also embroiled in another vicious internal war in the Amhara Region.
10. In a nutshell, the myriad problems besetting the region stem and find their fulcrum in Ethiopia; not elsewhere. And the panacea does not lie in externalizing the conflict or scapegoating Eritrea.
Yemane G. Meskel Minister of Information
Re: Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed is scared: Issaias may invade Ethiopia soon
The real author of this ill-fated article is neither Mulatu nor Lij Abiy. It is the bahlawi general Tsadkan - of course with a permission and full blessing of Lij Abiy. It is just a 'save us' call to the western governments.The world must act. Diplomatic pressure is needed to deter those who want to see an end to peace, like Isaias. The Pretoria Peace Agreement must be defended.
It is far-fetched to think that Abiy has the military strength to wage a war against Eritrea. If anything, he has witnessed firsthand, during the adventurios move of TPLF in 2020, what it would look like to start a
conflict against Eritrea.
Re: Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed is scared: Issaias may invade Ethiopia soon
Whoever wrote the opinion piece to AlJazeera, it is endorsed and supported by Abiy Ahmed and its Ministry of Foreign Affairs; therefore, it is almost official. This is the only reason, Eritrea responded very loudly, though it may change nothing.
Whether Abiy has the forces and wherewithal to fight, Abiy Ahmed does not need to invade Eritrea in all directions or topple the Issaias regime. If Abiy Ahmed invades, it will simply focus on the port of Assab. Though Abiy is in a very difficult situation in Ethiopia, he is doing his best to woe the Tigrayans to this end.
Abiy's advantage are multiple too: Trump and the Arab chaos. Trump does not give a shiit about African wars. The Arabs and the Middle East are on fire. Arabs are in defeat and in retreat with their ego deflated. Arabs can't go anywhere without American support.
If Trump pulls the rug under the feet of Arabs, many like Egypt and Jordan will starve, and the Gulf Arabs will collapse.
Whether Abiy has the forces and wherewithal to fight, Abiy Ahmed does not need to invade Eritrea in all directions or topple the Issaias regime. If Abiy Ahmed invades, it will simply focus on the port of Assab. Though Abiy is in a very difficult situation in Ethiopia, he is doing his best to woe the Tigrayans to this end.
Abiy's advantage are multiple too: Trump and the Arab chaos. Trump does not give a shiit about African wars. The Arabs and the Middle East are on fire. Arabs are in defeat and in retreat with their ego deflated. Arabs can't go anywhere without American support.
If Trump pulls the rug under the feet of Arabs, many like Egypt and Jordan will starve, and the Gulf Arabs will collapse.
Asmara wrote: ↑18 Feb 2025, 19:34The real author of this ill-fated article is neither Mulatu nor Lij Abiy. It is the bahlawi general Tsadkan - of course with a permission and full blessing of Lij Abiy. It is just a 'save us' call to the western governments.The world must act. Diplomatic pressure is needed to deter those who want to see an end to peace, like Isaias. The Pretoria Peace Agreement must be defended.
It is far-fetched to think that Abiy has the military strength to wage a war against Eritrea. If anything, he has witnessed firsthand, during the adventurios move of TPLF in 2020, what it would look like to start a
conflict against Eritrea.