Mereja.Forum

But hey, we're too busy Christmas shopping to notice anything. Except the guy who killed the CEO in New York. And just like that they found the backpack he was carrying. What did they find in that bag after carefully removing it and sending it to the crime lab?

The backpack recovered by the NYPD that allegedly belonged to the suspect wanted in the shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, only had two items inside: a Tommy Hilfiger jacket and Monopoly money, sources with knowledge of the ongoing investigation told ABC News Saturday.

Can the West afford for Syria’s dictator to be ousted?

The sudden eruption of Islamist militants fighting is more than just a unexpected twist in a civil war, says Mark Almond – if Bashar al-Assad is defeated, it could be the start of a geopolitical earthquake

Less than a week is a very long time in Syrian politics.

On Wednesday, after years of dormancy, a few thousand fighters from the last rebel stronghold in the country’s northwest erupted into action... and paralysed the Assad regime’s forces.

Just as the appearance of the Islamic State (Isis) group in Iraq and southeastern Syria a decade ago took local regimes and foreign observers by surprise, the reappearance of former al-Qaeda fighters, rebranded as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), came utterly out of the blue.

Unlike its earlier counterpart, Isis, the HTS group has so far limited its public ambitions to Syria. Gone is the grandiloquent intent to form a global caliphate, starting with abolishing the border between Syria and Iraq. But memories that the last Isis caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was based in Idlib before committing suicide when trapped by Donald Trump’s special forces in 2019, rankle with those who doubt the sincerity of the group’s change of heart.

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the HTS leader, has trimmed his jihadist beard and even appeared in a suit in the past to court Western media. Most importantly, he has modified the threatening rhetoric that, five years ago, united the United States, Russia and Iran against the globalist jihadis.

No amount of public relations would have helped Jolani and co without the Assad regime’s failure to use the relative peace it has enjoyed since 2019 to rebuild its economy and shore up support among its subjects.

Even those who had good reason to fear an Islamist takeover, not least Syria’s Christian minorities, were passive until Wednesday, when they swarmed out of their safe haven in Idlib. Nobody, not even his local uniformed hoods, offered resistance in the first few days, when Bashir al-Assad scuttled off to Moscow to seek Vladimir Putin’s intervention.

In the years since 2015, when Russia launched its military intervention, Putin’s air force has been key to Assad’s survival, the Kremlin steering his regime to safety on the back of massive bombing and weapons supplies while the West backed off from Barack Obama’s “red lines”. Then, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and thousands of Hezbollah fighters operating under Putin’s air umbrella swarmed in to regain territory lost by Assad to the rebels in cities like Aleppo. At the same time, the United States and its allies, such as the UK, pummelled the Islamic State in its capital, Raqqa, in southeastern Syria.

Israel’s decapitation of Hezbollah and its undeclared air war with Iran over Syria has reshaped the dormant battlefield there. It has also let loose other external players.

Today, the HTS fighters aren’t the only anti-Assad Syrians in the frame. The remnant of the old Free Syrian Army, made up of insurgent ex-Assad soldiers and local volunteers, has been nurtured by Turkey for years now in an uneasy partnership with the jihadis. Ankara has also added anti-Russia volunteers from the Muslim fringe of Putin’s empire and central Asia – even Uyghur radicals from China’s Xinjiang province – to the anti-Assad coalition.

Turkey has supplied the smart Nato-style uniforms and, more importantly, the up-to-date Nato-standard weapons and communications kit, and even drones, to these forces. That transformed them from holdouts in Idlib into a striking force.

But Turkey’s interest was less in removing Assad than in weakening the Kurdish groups who straddle its borders with Syria and Iraq. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s domestic war against Kurds has been expanded into their “safe havens” in Syria under the guise of fighting the tyrant Assad – a campaign easier to sell to Ankara’s Nato partners.

In a sinister parody of how the temporarily victorious Assad used to ship out civilians “cleansed” to Idlib’s overcrowded sanctuary during the last decade, today the Kurds of Aleppo are being shipped out of their homes in the city to “safe” enclaves to the northeast. The peace of the grave, or the empty hearth, is not a monopoly of Assad’s forces.

Israel’s interest in weakening Assad as Iran’s ally, and as the linchpin of the supply chain to Hezbollah next door in Lebanon, is tempered by fears that if Syria’s Sunni jihadis triumph, their moderation might disappear and their old alliance with Hamas as fellow Sunni “brothers” might revive. Israeli intelligence suspects that Syria’s residual chemical weapons, or at least Assad’s WMD knowhow, could fall into the “wrong” hands.

Never forget Benjamin Netanyahu’s dictum: My enemy’s enemy is not my friend – at least, not in the Middle East. Certainly, all alliances there are provisional.

Assad ally Russia says 'terrorist group' cannot be allowed to run Syria


Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Saturday that Syria must not be allowed to fall into the hands of a "terrorist group" as Islamist-led rebels advance on President Bashar al-Assad's seat of power.

Lavrov spoke after talks in the Gulf state of Qatar with fellow Assad ally Iran and opposition supporter Turkey aimed at preventing Syria from collapsing into chaos after the lightning rebel advances of recent days.

"It's inadmissible to allow the terrorist group to take control of territory in violation of agreements," Lavrov said, citing a 2015 UN Security Council Resolution which he said "strongly reiterated sovereignty, territorial integrity and unity of the Syrian Arab Republic".

Lavrov was alluding to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist group which has headed the assault and is rooted in the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda. HTS has sought to soften its image but remains proscribed as a "terrorist organisation" by Western governments.

Lavrov and Iran's Abbas Araghchi met Turkey's Hakan Fidan on the sidelines of the annual Doha Forum for political dialogue.

Araghchi said the three agreed on the need to launch "political dialogue between the Syrian government and legitimate opposition groups".

Turkey's foreign ministry said the meeting was "constructive" and it was agreed "the talks in the Astana format would continue" after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he hopes neighbouring Syria "finds peace".

- 'Urgent political talks' -

The three countries have been partners since 2017 in the so-called Astana process seeking to end Syria's civil war that began in 2011.

Despite repeated violations, a 2020 ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia and Turkey had largely frozen the conflict for several years, but it was blown apart by the shock offensive the rebels launched late last month.

Moscow and Tehran have offered military support to help Assad's forces hold off the rebels.

Ankara backs some of the rebel groups involved in the offensive and looks favourably on its success so far.

However, the scale of the collapse of Assad's forces has taken observers by surprise with conflicting reports about how close the rebels have come to Assad's seat of power.

After Fall of Assad Dynasty, Syria’s Risky New Moment

The swift collapse of Syria’s regime brings a humiliating end to Russia’s and Iran’s sway and opens the door for greater Turkish influence. But the Islamist movement that seized power has yet to show its full intentions.

Expert Brief by Steven A. Cook

December 8, 2024 10:36 am (EST)

https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/after- ... new-moment

Bashar al-Assad’s regime has fallen in Syria. How will this impact an already fractured region?

The swift and unexpected fall of the Syrian capital, Damascus, to Sunni opposition forces marks a pivotal moment in the modern history of the Middle East.

Bashar al-Assad’s regime had withstood more than a decade of uprisings, civil war and international sanctions since the onset of widespread protests in 2011. Yet, it collapsed in a remarkably short period of time.

This sudden turn of events, with the opposition advancing without significant battles or resistance, has left regional powers scrambling to assess the fallout and its broader implications.

This dramatic development signals a reshuffling of power dynamics in the region. It also raises questions about Syria’s future and the role of its neighbours and global stakeholders in managing the post-Assad landscape.

What does the future hold for Syria?

With the collapse of the Assad regime, Syria now finds itself fragmented and divided among three dominant factions, each with external backers and distinct goals:

1. Syrian opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham: These groups, supported by Turkey, now control central Syria, extending from the northern border with Turkey to the southern border with Jordan.

Although they share a common religious identity, the Sunni factions have a history of internal conflicts, which could hinder their ability to form a cohesive government or maintain long-term stability.

The opposition forces range from former jihadists coming from Islamic State and al-Qaeda to secular groups such as the Syrian National Army, which split from Assad’s army after the 2011 uprising.

2. Kurdish forces: The Kurdish groups control territory in northeastern Syria, bordering Turkey in the north and Iraq in the east. They continue to receive support from the United States, which has established military bases in the area. This support risks escalating tensions with Turkey, which views Kurdish empowerment as a threat to its territorial integrity.

3. Alawite forces: Pro-Assad Alawite factions, primarily situated in the coastal regions of western Syria, maintain strong ties with Iran, Iraq and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group. These areas could serve as a stronghold for remnants of Assad-aligned groups after the opposition’s takeover, perpetuating sectarian divides.

The stark divisions among these groups, combined with the absence of a mutually acceptable mediator, suggest that Syria may now face prolonged instability and conflict.

How will this impact the region?

The swift fall of the Assad regime has profound implications for the major players in the Middle East.

The Sunni rebel forces, with strong Turkish backing, capitalised on a moment of vulnerability in Syria. The Assad regime’s allies were preoccupied — Russia with its ongoing war in Ukraine, and Iran and its proxies with their ongoing conflict with Israel. This provided a strategic opportunity for the rebels to advance swiftly across Syria to the capital, Damascus.

Turkey already effectively controls a strip of territory in northern Syria, where its military has been fighting Syrian Kurdish forces. Now, with the victory of its Syrian opposition allies, Turkey is expected to expand its political and military influence in Syria, causing more challenges for the Kurdish minority fighting for its autonomy.

Israel is also in a strategically better position. The fall of Assad disrupts the so-called “axis of resistance”, comprised of Iran, Syria and Tehran’s proxy groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Iran’s critical military supply lines to Hezbollah will likely be severed, isolating the militant group and likely weakening it even further.

Additionally, the fragmentation of Syria into ethnic and religious factions could diminish the regional focus on Israel, providing space for it to pursue its broader strategic goals. After Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah last month, for example, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasised a shift in focus to countering the “Iranian threat”.

Iran, meanwhile, has the most to lose. Assad was a crucial ally in Iran’s regional proxy network. And the collapse of his government follows the significant damage that Israel has already inflicted on its other partners, Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran’s regional influence has now been severely diminished, leaving it more vulnerable to direct conflict with Israel.

The fragmentation of Syria also poses significant security risks to its neighbouring countries – Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon. Refugee flows, cross-border violence and sectarian tensions are likely to escalate. Turkey is already hosting more than 3 million Syrian refugees – many of whom it hopes will return home now that Assad’s government is gone.

For Iraq and Lebanon, this instability could exacerbate their fragile political and economic situations. The Balkanisation of Syria along ethnic and religious lines could encourage other groups in the region to rebel against governments in the pursuit of their own autonomy. This risks entrenching divisions and prolonging conflict across the region.

While many Syrians have celebrated Assad’s fall, it remains to be seen whether their lives will improve much. With the absence of a unified and internationally recognised government in Syria, sanctions are unlikely to be lifted. This will further strain an already devastated Syrian economy, deepening the humanitarian crisis and potentially fuelling extremism.

Revelations,
I wouldn't expect nothing from Syria any different from the fall of Gadaffi or Sadam, or Woyane. The time will come when the fighting groups get tired and grow old. And then people accept the Taliban style resolution for their chaotic situation.

Revelations wrote: ↑

08 Dec 2024, 07:46

The fall of Assad is more than just one regime falling. Be patient and watch closely what cards are played by the other side next. Just know that the world is inching closer to the abyss.

Absolutely different situation than those you listed. It's not about Assad falling but the global military and political environment that makes this a very dangerous crisis/time. Too many actors with the bomb in their arsenal pushed to a corner is not a situation that can be trivialized by anyone. And the folks at the top are saying as much quietly.

Educator wrote: ↑

08 Dec 2024, 15:44

Revelations,
I wouldn't expect nothing from Syria any different from the fall of Gadaffi or Sadam, or Woyane. The time will come when the fighting groups get tired and grow old. And then people accept the Taliban style resolution for their chaotic situation.

Revelations wrote: ↑

08 Dec 2024, 07:46

The fall of Assad is more than just one regime falling. Be patient and watch closely what cards are played by the other side next. Just know that the world is inching closer to the abyss.