Threat analysis & the way forward for Tigray!
Posted: 22 Sep 2024, 14:23
Threat analysis of Tigray :
The most important outcome of the Pretoria Agreement is the fragmentation and destruction of the Axis of evil against Tigray that was composed of Isaias, Abiy and Amhara army, which has created the opportunity for Tigray to overcome its enemies.
Isaias's Army:
Isaias still feels he did not meet his goals in Tigray during the previous genocidal war. His goals consist of destroying TPLF and subduing Tigray and occupying/ annexing its territories. He still want to purseue toward achievement of his goals when the opportunity arises. Isaias greatest fear & nightmare is for TDF to ally with Abiy forces and march toward Adi Halo and Assab, which is a reasonable fear.
Abiy's Army:
In the previous war, Abiy has demonstrated his leadership capability in mobilizing internal and external forces to subdue Tigray using lawless and genocidal cruel war. However, Abiy currently faces huge threat from Egypt and its proxies as well as from Amhara, Tigray and Oromia. Abiy could be forced to give in for Egypt and try to prolong his stay in power but the threat from Amhara and Tigray will keep him weak and vulnerable for some time. Unless Abiy sells Ethiopia's sovereignty and sell the Abay river and the dam for Egypt, he will not be able to wage war against Tigray in the near future.
Amhara army ( FANO)
FANO is the existential threat of Tigray as it plans to subdue and compromise the territory of Tigray once it defeats Abiy and controls the Arat Kilo. The ongoing tactical alliance of FANO and Isaias is also a further existential threat to Tigray. In the long term FANO will be the existential threat to Eritrea since FANO inherently believes in the old Ethiopia that incorporates Eritrea.The game priority order of FANO is Phase1: Defeat Abiy and subdue Oromia, Phase 2: Defeat TDF and subdue Tigray Phase 3: Defeat Isaias and subdue Eritrea. Because of this game priority order, FANO will not be in a position to establish a strategic relationship but only a tactical one either with Isaias,Tigray or Abiy.
Threats against Tigray from within:
The ongoing political division within TPLF has to be streamlined in a peaceful and legal manner. Any political division that tries to divide Tigray and weaken TDF has to be crushed without any compromise.
The Way Forward:
Alliance possibilities for Tigray: Tigray two potential tactical and strategic alliance partners are Abiy or/and Eritrea. However, since both were the main powers who committed genocide on Tigray, its game plan should be close to her chest and none of them should be able to guess the move of Tigray. Ultimately, Tigray should have a strategic alliance with post Isaias Eritrea and should get the political upper hand against Amhara and the Federal government by bringing the political center of Ethiopia to Tigray over the next decades. Tigray should never support the Federal government against its war on Amhara or the opposite. In the meantime, Tigray should be ready militarily, politically and economically to take the upper hand once Amhara and the Federal governments are weakening each other. "Never interfere with enemies in the process of destroying themselves"
The most important outcome of the Pretoria Agreement is the fragmentation and destruction of the Axis of evil against Tigray that was composed of Isaias, Abiy and Amhara army, which has created the opportunity for Tigray to overcome its enemies.
Isaias's Army:
Isaias still feels he did not meet his goals in Tigray during the previous genocidal war. His goals consist of destroying TPLF and subduing Tigray and occupying/ annexing its territories. He still want to purseue toward achievement of his goals when the opportunity arises. Isaias greatest fear & nightmare is for TDF to ally with Abiy forces and march toward Adi Halo and Assab, which is a reasonable fear.
Abiy's Army:
In the previous war, Abiy has demonstrated his leadership capability in mobilizing internal and external forces to subdue Tigray using lawless and genocidal cruel war. However, Abiy currently faces huge threat from Egypt and its proxies as well as from Amhara, Tigray and Oromia. Abiy could be forced to give in for Egypt and try to prolong his stay in power but the threat from Amhara and Tigray will keep him weak and vulnerable for some time. Unless Abiy sells Ethiopia's sovereignty and sell the Abay river and the dam for Egypt, he will not be able to wage war against Tigray in the near future.
Amhara army ( FANO)
FANO is the existential threat of Tigray as it plans to subdue and compromise the territory of Tigray once it defeats Abiy and controls the Arat Kilo. The ongoing tactical alliance of FANO and Isaias is also a further existential threat to Tigray. In the long term FANO will be the existential threat to Eritrea since FANO inherently believes in the old Ethiopia that incorporates Eritrea.The game priority order of FANO is Phase1: Defeat Abiy and subdue Oromia, Phase 2: Defeat TDF and subdue Tigray Phase 3: Defeat Isaias and subdue Eritrea. Because of this game priority order, FANO will not be in a position to establish a strategic relationship but only a tactical one either with Isaias,Tigray or Abiy.
Threats against Tigray from within:
The ongoing political division within TPLF has to be streamlined in a peaceful and legal manner. Any political division that tries to divide Tigray and weaken TDF has to be crushed without any compromise.
The Way Forward:
Alliance possibilities for Tigray: Tigray two potential tactical and strategic alliance partners are Abiy or/and Eritrea. However, since both were the main powers who committed genocide on Tigray, its game plan should be close to her chest and none of them should be able to guess the move of Tigray. Ultimately, Tigray should have a strategic alliance with post Isaias Eritrea and should get the political upper hand against Amhara and the Federal government by bringing the political center of Ethiopia to Tigray over the next decades. Tigray should never support the Federal government against its war on Amhara or the opposite. In the meantime, Tigray should be ready militarily, politically and economically to take the upper hand once Amhara and the Federal governments are weakening each other. "Never interfere with enemies in the process of destroying themselves"