Mereja.Forum

[Axumezana]

Threat analysis of Tigray :

The most important outcome of the Pretoria Agreement is the fragmentation and destruction of the Axis of evil against Tigray that was composed of Isaias, Abiy and Amhara army. Which has created the opportunity for Tigray to overcome its enemies.

Isaias's Army:

Isaias still feels he did not meet his golas in Tigray during the previous genocidal war. His goals consist of destroying TPLF and subduing Tigray and occupying/ annexing its territories. He still want to purseue toward achievement of his goals when the opportunity arises. Isaias greatest fear & nightmare is for TDF to ally with Abiy forces and march toward Adi Halo and Assab, which is a reasonable fear.

Abiy's Army:

In the previous war, Abiy has demonstrated his leadership capability in mobilizing internal and external forces to subdue Tigray using lawless and genocidal cruel war. However, Abiy currently faces huge threat from Egypt and its proxies as well as from Amhara, Tigray and Oromia. Abiy could be forced to give in for Egypt and try to prolong his stay in power but the threat from Amhara and Tigray will keep him weak and vulnerable for some time. Unless Abiy sells Ethiopia's sovereignty and sell the Abay river and the dam for Egypt, he will not be able to wage war against Tigray in the near future.

Amhara army ( FANO)

FANO is the existential threat of Tigray as it plans to subdue and compromise the territory of Tigray once it defeats Abiy and controls the Arat Kilo. The ongoing tactical alliance of FANO and Isaias is also a further existential threat to Tigray. In the long term FANO will be the existential threat to Eritrea since FANO inherently believes in the old Ethiopia that incorporates Eritrea.The game priority order of FANO is Phase1: Defeat Abiy and subdue Oromia, Phase 2: Defeat TDF and subdue Tigray Phase 3: Defeat Isaias and subdue Eritrea. Because of this game priority order, FANO will not be in a position to establish a strategic relationship but only a tactical one either with Isaias,Tigray or Abiy.


Threats against Tigray from within:

The ongoing political division within TPLF has to be streamlined in a peaceful and legal manner. Any political division that tries to divide Tigray and weaken TDF has to be crushed without any compromise.

The Way Forward:

Alliance possibilities for Tigray: Tigray two potential tactical and strategic alliance partners are Abiy or/and Eritrea. However, since both were the main powers who committed genocide on Tigray, its game plan should be close to her chest and none of them should be able to guess the move of Tigray. Ultimately, Tigray should have a strategic alliance with post Isaias Eritrea and should get the political upper hand against Amhara and the Federal government by bringing the political center of Ethiopia to Tigray over the next decades. Tigray should never support the Federal government against its war on Amhara or the opposite. In the mean time Tigray should be ready militarily, politically and economically to take the upper hand once Amhara and the Federal governments are weakening each other. " Watch while your enemies are killing each other"

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=350930&p=1508766#p1508766

[Abere]

Tigray accounting 3%-4% of the Ethiopian population and yet been the hotbed of rebel rats (dysfunctional thugs) 95% of the time appears to more attributed to nature than any other possible factor. Looting, violence and mercenary appears to be means and source of livelihood.

Harnessing nature, its ecology in Tigray is the best solution. Besides, the region needs a pest control for those unlearning Woyane rats. There should not be any joke about Woyane rats, they ጥቁር ሞት (black death) ተሸካሚ ዐይጠ-መጎጥ

[Axumezana]

Tigray hater Abere,

I want your comment on this:

"Amhara army ( FANO)

FANO is the existential threat of Tigray as it plans to subdue and compromise the territory of Tigray once it defeats Abiy and controls the Arat Kilo. The ongoing tactical alliance of FANO and Isaias is also a further existential threat to Tigray. In the long term FANO will be the existential threat to Eritrea since FANO inherently believes in the old Ethiopia that incorporates Eritrea.The game priority order of FANO is Phase1: Defeat Abiy and subdue Oromia, Phase 2: Defeat TDF and subdue Tigray Phase 3: Defeat Isaias and subdue Eritrea. Becuse of this game priority order, FANO will not be in a position to establish a strategic relationship but only a tactical one either with Isaias,Tigray or Abiy."

[Dark Energy]

Agame boy,

Isayas does not fear Tigray. He was just trying to avoid elections back in 1998. Meles and co., help sanction him. That makes him mad. The idiots instead of accepting The Hague ruling, they reject it making it personal for him. He loves you since he was able to stay in power because of your rejection of The Hague ruling.

[Axumezana]

Ascari boy,

Isaias knows his limits and he cannot stand TDF & ENDF together. He is not foolish to forget what happened to him in the 1998-2000 war! The following was the advice Axumezana's AI clone Ermias Hailu gave to Abiy knowing the inherent agenda of Isaias Afeworki before 6 yeas ago.

"Continue to build an effective and efficient lean military machine as deterrence to Egypt and its proxies that win war easily & quickly (if we are forced to defend ourselves/Please note that Ethiopia’s history is a history of defensive war and it shall continue to be so). Whether we like it or not Ethiopia sits on one of the most volatile, conflict and war prone strategic regions of the world. Egypt is the strategic enemy and rival of Ethiopia. When Egypt invaded Ethiopia in 1875, Egypt demanded to be given the exact region what the Italians later called Eritrea or continue with their invasion of Ethiopia. Emperor Yohannes rejected their demand and fought and defeated them until their government in Egypt was collapsed. Unfortunately, the Italians replaced the Egyptians and succeeded to curve out Eritrea. After the 2nd world war the UN decided to federate Eritrea with Ethiopia, though Egypt claimed Eritrea and strongly opposed the federation with Ethiopia. Thereafter, Egypt created the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF) and funded the 30 years bitter war that caused untold death, destruction and suffering to the people of Ethiopia and succeeded to snatch Eritrea from Ethiopia to make it its de facto colony. Let me repeat it clear and loud again- Eritrea is the de facto colony of Egypt and a thorn in the flesh for Ethiopia. Do not expect lasting true peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea until the insecure President Isaias, who is the agent of Egypt, that transformed Eritrea to open air prison is judged by God. Allocate more budget to the military. Leverage on the geopolitical position and strategic location of Ethiopia and establish strategic cooperation with the superpowers that enables Ethiopia to build a military power that rivals Egypt. While most of the superpowers and the Middle East economic powers have established their military base at the door steps of Ethiopia can Ethiopia survive without strong army? The answer is a big no! When the late PM Meles came to power in 1991 on his first interview for the Ethiopian Television said “we Ethiopians do not need a big army, it is better we are recognized having big industry rather than a big army”. This was an innocent wish from a naive prime minister that was to be proven disastrously wrong after 8 years when Egypt backed Eritrea stabbed him from back and invaded Ethiopia. Contrary to what the Egyptians want us to believe that they do not need the GRED, the truth is that they badly need it as “free of charge reservoir” as far as their so-called historic right is protected. All the money they have invested to create instability on Ethiopia is to enable them to arm twist the Ethiopian government to sign a water sharing agreement that legitimizes their “historic claim”. That is exactly what they did to Sudan decades ago and they want to repeat it with Ethiopia. PM Dr. Abiy beware of the Egyptians! They will try to deceive you directly or indirectly (through African Union, UN, superpowers, leaders of Middle East rich countries, etc. they know you have shortage of hard currency and they will offer you with strings attached) say no to their zero sum demands, like the late PM Meles who gave his precious life for his country."

[Dama]

Fano exists because TDF and OLF are threats to Amara. For peace in Ethiopia, TPLF and OLF(Shane)must be thoroughly vanquished. Then we will not hear about Fano.

[Axumezana]

Ascari FANO Dama,

Meles created Amahara & Oromia for balancing act. Let FANO AND Abiy/ OLA fight it until they are fully worn out!

[Abere]

If hating Woyane is hating Tigre, call me Tigray hater.

The only Threat for Tigray is Woyane. Tigray has no enemy other than its own home grown Woyane, TPLF.

It is Tigray's home-grown Woyane that declared Amhara as an existential threat to Tigre and as such should be exterminated. Woyane is a threat to Tigray as well as Amhara.

Fano, is a cultural institution of defense invoked when the country becomes lawless its existence threatened by mercenaries. Once it ensures stability its patriots return to their main economic engagements, not becoming a political party. Fano is aspiring a democratic country where citizens have equal right. It is well known that you are living in your own nightmare. The funny thing is you project Fano and criminalize Fano, but if your TPLF does what you project Fano will do that is right and acceptable. I think you have the same analytical/predicting challenge as Debretsion. The glitch in his brain caused mammoth loss and humiliation to Tigray. Is Tigray the same as Woyane?

Tigray hater Abere,

I want your comment on this:

"Amhara army ( FANO)

FANO is the existential threat of Tigray as it plans to subdue and compromise the territory of Tigray once it defeats Abiy and controls the Arat Kilo. The ongoing tactical alliance of FANO and Isaias is also a further existential threat to Tigray. In the long term FANO will be the existential threat to Eritrea since FANO inherently believes in the old Ethiopia that incorporates Eritrea.The game priority order of FANO is Phase1: Defeat Abiy and subdue Oromia, Phase 2: Defeat TDF and subdue Tigray Phase 3: Defeat Isaias and subdue Eritrea. Becuse of this game priority order, FANO will not be in a position to establish a strategic relationship but only a tactical one either with Isaias,Tigray or Abiy."

[Dama]

Ascari FANO Dama,

Meles created Amahara & Oromia for balancing act. Let FANO AND Abiy/ OLA fight it until they are fully worn out!

Meles is no longer here. His logic for TPLF hegemony also died with him. TPLF obliterated and fractured. It should furrher go down to history's trash bins for good. Its criminal leaders charged with treason, war crimes and human rights violations, if not with genocide. The same should apply to Oromo militia and Shene(OLF).

Trust me, there will be no Fano. I agree with Aberash, it will disband itself as there will be no reason to keep it. It will be absurd for them to keep it.

The Meles created regions of Amara and Oromo shall be abolished and new provinces or admin regions created all over Ethiopia.

The bad news is Ethiopia will give Clown Abiy Ahmed longer hold on power. Or the military has to do this job.

[Axumezana]

Abere

If TPLF goes another TPLF shall come & Tigray shall be always a heavy stone on the shoulder of Ethiopia until an Axum centered Ethiopia is reestablished!

[Abere]

Honestly, I pray for your sanity! To think of Axum at this age of humanity as would be metropolitan city is a sign of some challenge in sanity.

Let alone Axum, Tigray province does not have the carrying capacity to do most of the things a modern capital can provide. Stop thinking weird

Abere

If TPLF goes another TPLF shall come & Tigray shall be always a heavy stone on the shoulder of Ethiopia until an Axum centered Ethiopia is reestablished!

[Axumezana]

Abere,

Axum shall be reinstated as Israel was reinstated after 2000 years!

[Abere]

I am afraid Dinknesh (Lucy) too might come out and claim so
Again, my prayers to you.

Abere,

Axum shall be reinstated as Israel was reinstated after 2000 years!

[Dark Energy]

Agame zana,

Isayas uses you as an excuse to stay in power. You idiots, never get it, do ya ?

Here comes the Agame boogie man to get ya !

[Dama]

Abere

If TPLF goes another TPLF shall come & Tigray shall be always a heavy stone on the shoulder of Ethiopia until an Axum centered Ethiopia is reestablished!

You may try but the innocence of Tigray as a whole has been damaged. Everyone, especially Amara and Oromo have suffered immensely so much that any other scoundrel wearing the mask of Tigray people is done for ever. Ethiopia has to be in a coma for any armed group from Tigray to have a chance to rule over Ethiopia.

[Axumezana]

Abere ,

Prayer is good but you need to repent for hating Tigrayans & Tigray for your prayer to be heard!

[Axumezana]

Threat analysis of Tigray :

The most important outcome of the Pretoria Agreement is the fragmentation and destruction of the Axis of evil against Tigray that was composed of Isaias, Abiy and Amhara army. Which has created the opportunity for Tigray to overcome its enemies.

Isaias's Army:

Isaias still feels he did not meet his golas in Tigray during the previous genocidal war. His goals consist of destroying TPLF and subduing Tigray and occupying/ annexing its territories. He still want to purseue toward achievement of his goals when the opportunity arises. Isaias greatest fear & nightmare is for TDF to ally with Abiy forces and march toward Adi Halo and Assab, which is a reasonable fear.

Abiy's Army:

In the previous war, Abiy has demonstrated his leadership capability in mobilizing internal and external forces to subdue Tigray using lawless and genocidal cruel war. However, Abiy currently faces huge threat from Egypt and its proxies as well as from Amhara, Tigray and Oromia. Abiy could be forced to give in for Egypt and try to prolong his stay in power but the threat from Amhara and Tigray will keep him weak and vulnerable for some time. Unless Abiy sells Ethiopia's sovereignty and sell the Abay river and the dam for Egypt, he will not be able to wage war against Tigray in the near future.

Amhara army ( FANO)

FANO is the existential threat of Tigray as it plans to subdue and compromise the territory of Tigray once it defeats Abiy and controls the Arat Kilo. The ongoing tactical alliance of FANO and Isaias is also a further existential threat to Tigray. In the long term FANO will be the existential threat to Eritrea since FANO inherently believes in the old Ethiopia that incorporates Eritrea.The game priority order of FANO is Phase1: Defeat Abiy and subdue Oromia, Phase 2: Defeat TDF and subdue Tigray Phase 3: Defeat Isaias and subdue Eritrea. Because of this game priority order, FANO will not be in a position to establish a strategic relationship but only a tactical one either with Isaias,Tigray or Abiy.


Threats against Tigray from within:

The ongoing political division within TPLF has to be streamlined in a peaceful and legal manner. Any political division that tries to divide Tigray and weaken TDF has to be crushed without any compromise.

The Way Forward:

Alliance possibilities for Tigray: Tigray two potential tactical and strategic alliance partners are Abiy or/and Eritrea. However, since both were the main powers who committed genocide on Tigray, its game plan should be close to her chest and none of them should be able to guess the move of Tigray. Ultimately, Tigray should have a strategic alliance with post Isaias Eritrea and should get the political upper hand against Amhara and the Federal government by bringing the political center of Ethiopia to Tigray over the next decades. Tigray should never support the Federal government against its war on Amhara or the opposite. In the mean time Tigray should be ready militarily, politically and economically to take the upper hand once Amhara and the Federal governments are weakening each other. " Watch while your enemies are killing each other"

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