THE MAP OF ETHIOPIAN GEOPOLITICS & THE UNFOLDING HORN OF AFRICA
Posted: 29 Aug 2024, 14:16
September 3, 2024
1
Divided and Multi-polar global powers
(1) US
(2) UK
(3) Russia
(4) France
(5) China
(6) UK
(7) ITALY
These world powers cannot form a united policy on the Horn of Africa.
2
Divided and multi-polar regional powers
(1) Israel
(2) Saudi Arabia
(3) Qatar
(4) United Arab Emirates
(5) Turkey
(6) Egypt
(7) Iran
Each of these regional powers want to control parts of the Red Sea, the Nile river and control natural resources of Sudan (gold), South Sudan (oil), Eritrean (ports), Ethiopian (water, land), Somalia (ports, oil, fish) as well as markets, cultures and populations.
1. Turkey controls Somalia, core interest- geoeconomic & military rather than geopolitical. Turkey contends with UAE & to some degree with Egypt too.
2. Egypt wants to encircle Ethiopia by controlling Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia & Djibouti – core Egyptian interest geopolitical & military rather than geoeconomic
3. UAE controls Sudan, Somaliland, Ethiopia, & some influence on Egypt. Core interest geoeconomic & geopolitical rather than geomilitary
4. Saudi controls Djibouti
5. Iran controls Yemen
3
Divided and multi-polar regional countries
(1) Ethiopia
(2) Eritrea
(3) Sudan
(4) South Sudan
(5) Somalia
(6) Somaliland
(7) Kenya
(8) Djibouti
(9) Yemen?
With the exception of Kenya, every one of these countries are in conflict with each other.
4
Internally divided, fractured, war torn countries of the Horn of Africa
(1) Ethiopia: Tigray war, Amara war, Oromo war, Beni-Shangul, Gambella etc….
(2) Eritrea – EPLF and Brigade Nehamedu, Afar
(3) Sudan Military & RSF
(4) South Sudan Tribal wars
(5) Somalia – Somalia, Somaliland, Putnland, Al Shabab & many more clan/regional conflicts
(6) Djibouti – Afar v. Issa
5
Horn of Africa a Land of Complex Proxies
(1) Ethiopia allies with UAE, Morocco, RSF, Somaliland, Puntland, South Sudan? Kenya?
(2) Eritrea allies with Saudi, Egypt, Sudanese military, Somalia
(3) Sudan military allies with Saudi, Egypt, Eritrea, South Sudan?
(4) Sudan RSF allies with UAE, Ethiopia,
(5) South Sudan allies Sudan military, Egypt?
(6) Somalia allies with Italy, Turkey, Egypt, Eritrea, Djibouti
(7) Somaliland allies with UAE, Ethiopia
(8) Djibouti allies with Somalia, Saudi
(9) Kenya US main ally, competes with Ethiopia for regional influence
6
Global Powers vs. Countries
(1) Ethiopia + China + Russia + UK? + US? Ethiopia has no clear single bloc policy. BRICS member, Distance from US
(2) Eritrea + Russia & China
(3) Sudan + US? +Russia? +?
(4) South Sudan?
(5) Somalia + US
(6) Kenya + US Main ally in Africa
(7) Djibouti +France, China, US,
7
Uncertain Roles
African Unity
UN
IGAD
Arab league
8
What happens with respect to MOU:
(1) Ethiopia has core economic, military, Security & strategic interests in Somaliland
(2) Somaliland has core political and economic & security interests in Ethiopia
(3) Egypt’s core interest – encircle Ethiopia, keep Ethiopia away from Red Sea, oppose MOU, collude with Turkey against Ethiopia
(4) Turkey will not sacrifice its huge economic relations with UAE and its economic interest in Ethiopia for the sake of Somalia unity. Most likely control only the Somalia part of the region. Most likely collude with Egypt.
(5) UAE has huge economic interest in Somaliland and food and water interest in Ethiopia. UAE could come in conflict with both Egypt & Turkey
(6) Israel could join the conflict on the side of Ethiopia against Egyptian & Turkish expansion
(7) Somalia has already allied with Turkey & Egypt against Ethiopia for security and economic interest but will lose Sovereignty over Somaliland and try to hold on to Puntland.
(8) Proxy war in Somaliland between Somalia and Ethiopia possible; Ethiopian-Somalia war on other fronts possible
9
THE FATE OF ETHIO-SOMALILAND MOU
More than 90% chance of being implemented. If MoU becomes an agreement…
10
Who will train the Ethiopian Navy?
(1) Pakistan?
(2) India?
(3) Turkey?
(4) France?
(5) US?
(6) UK?
(7) Italy?
(8) ISRAEL?
(9) Morocco?
The Immutable law is that everything changes. Therefore, all of the above ideological, political, economic, military positions, alliances and conflicts will change in time. Friends become enemies, enemies become friends. The strong becomes weaker, the weak becomes stronger. In the end, the intelligent, the wise, the clear thinker and the resilient will win.
Horus ze Ethiopian
1
Divided and Multi-polar global powers
(1) US
(2) UK
(3) Russia
(4) France
(5) China
(6) UK
(7) ITALY
These world powers cannot form a united policy on the Horn of Africa.
2
Divided and multi-polar regional powers
(1) Israel
(2) Saudi Arabia
(3) Qatar
(4) United Arab Emirates
(5) Turkey
(6) Egypt
(7) Iran
Each of these regional powers want to control parts of the Red Sea, the Nile river and control natural resources of Sudan (gold), South Sudan (oil), Eritrean (ports), Ethiopian (water, land), Somalia (ports, oil, fish) as well as markets, cultures and populations.
1. Turkey controls Somalia, core interest- geoeconomic & military rather than geopolitical. Turkey contends with UAE & to some degree with Egypt too.
2. Egypt wants to encircle Ethiopia by controlling Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia & Djibouti – core Egyptian interest geopolitical & military rather than geoeconomic
3. UAE controls Sudan, Somaliland, Ethiopia, & some influence on Egypt. Core interest geoeconomic & geopolitical rather than geomilitary
4. Saudi controls Djibouti
5. Iran controls Yemen
3
Divided and multi-polar regional countries
(1) Ethiopia
(2) Eritrea
(3) Sudan
(4) South Sudan
(5) Somalia
(6) Somaliland
(7) Kenya
(8) Djibouti
(9) Yemen?
With the exception of Kenya, every one of these countries are in conflict with each other.
4
Internally divided, fractured, war torn countries of the Horn of Africa
(1) Ethiopia: Tigray war, Amara war, Oromo war, Beni-Shangul, Gambella etc….
(2) Eritrea – EPLF and Brigade Nehamedu, Afar
(3) Sudan Military & RSF
(4) South Sudan Tribal wars
(5) Somalia – Somalia, Somaliland, Putnland, Al Shabab & many more clan/regional conflicts
(6) Djibouti – Afar v. Issa
5
Horn of Africa a Land of Complex Proxies
(1) Ethiopia allies with UAE, Morocco, RSF, Somaliland, Puntland, South Sudan? Kenya?
(2) Eritrea allies with Saudi, Egypt, Sudanese military, Somalia
(3) Sudan military allies with Saudi, Egypt, Eritrea, South Sudan?
(4) Sudan RSF allies with UAE, Ethiopia,
(5) South Sudan allies Sudan military, Egypt?
(6) Somalia allies with Italy, Turkey, Egypt, Eritrea, Djibouti
(7) Somaliland allies with UAE, Ethiopia
(8) Djibouti allies with Somalia, Saudi
(9) Kenya US main ally, competes with Ethiopia for regional influence
6
Global Powers vs. Countries
(1) Ethiopia + China + Russia + UK? + US? Ethiopia has no clear single bloc policy. BRICS member, Distance from US
(2) Eritrea + Russia & China
(3) Sudan + US? +Russia? +?
(4) South Sudan?
(5) Somalia + US
(6) Kenya + US Main ally in Africa
(7) Djibouti +France, China, US,
7
Uncertain Roles
African Unity
UN
IGAD
Arab league
8
What happens with respect to MOU:
(1) Ethiopia has core economic, military, Security & strategic interests in Somaliland
(2) Somaliland has core political and economic & security interests in Ethiopia
(3) Egypt’s core interest – encircle Ethiopia, keep Ethiopia away from Red Sea, oppose MOU, collude with Turkey against Ethiopia
(4) Turkey will not sacrifice its huge economic relations with UAE and its economic interest in Ethiopia for the sake of Somalia unity. Most likely control only the Somalia part of the region. Most likely collude with Egypt.
(5) UAE has huge economic interest in Somaliland and food and water interest in Ethiopia. UAE could come in conflict with both Egypt & Turkey
(6) Israel could join the conflict on the side of Ethiopia against Egyptian & Turkish expansion
(7) Somalia has already allied with Turkey & Egypt against Ethiopia for security and economic interest but will lose Sovereignty over Somaliland and try to hold on to Puntland.
(8) Proxy war in Somaliland between Somalia and Ethiopia possible; Ethiopian-Somalia war on other fronts possible
9
THE FATE OF ETHIO-SOMALILAND MOU
More than 90% chance of being implemented. If MoU becomes an agreement…
10
Who will train the Ethiopian Navy?
(1) Pakistan?
(2) India?
(3) Turkey?
(4) France?
(5) US?
(6) UK?
(7) Italy?
(8) ISRAEL?
(9) Morocco?
The Immutable law is that everything changes. Therefore, all of the above ideological, political, economic, military positions, alliances and conflicts will change in time. Friends become enemies, enemies become friends. The strong becomes weaker, the weak becomes stronger. In the end, the intelligent, the wise, the clear thinker and the resilient will win.
Horus ze Ethiopian
