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Horus
Senior Member+
Posts: 40292
Joined: 19 Oct 2013, 19:34

War & Diplomacy Between States Operate On Incomplete Knowledge, Ambiguity, Unpredictability & Uncertainty

Post by Horus » 05 Jul 2024, 22:26

ER's sensational news addicts and random consumers of information are in considerable discomfort when it comes to the mysterious workings of the Ethio-Somaliland MOU.

In fact, it is the very nature of war, diplomacy & inter-state affairs to be vague, secretive, unpredictable, ambiguous, and uncertain. This is precisely so because matters of war and diplomacy are governed not by news entertainment but by the theory of game - the game of war & peace between states. It is a serious and deadly game.

Let alone the day to day moves, drama and optics of state behaviors, the very motive and strategic objectives of the state are suppose to remain unknown to the enemy or the competing state.

For example, consider Egypt's game theory with respect to the MOU. Only fools would believe that Egypt is behaving the way it does to support Somalia. Egypt's singular centuries old permanent objective is to encircle, destabilize, weaken and thwart the Ethiopian state and nation. This is what it is doing right at this moment - trying to sabotage the Nile Dam & keep Ethiopia away from the Red Sea.

Consider Turkey's behavior in this region miles far away from its borders. Its singular objective is to restore the power, wealth and glory of the Ottoman Empire and it is working methodically to achieve that objective. Somalia is mere opportunity and a tool of the Turkish imperial ambition.

Consider the oil and gold seeking Sheiks of Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, et al. Each has its singular objective - control of wealth, Gold, marine resources , Fertile land and markets.

Given all these driving forces, it is tragic to observe the shameful, unconscious, totally idiotic behaviors of the HoA petty bourgeoisie that seems to have forever forfeited its own interest and has become a willing servant & slave of these external powers.

Whatever the cost and duration the effort, Ethiopia will gather its currently dispersed and scattered energies and will secure its maritime state status. I have said again and again, Ethiopia needs, must, has to quickly find internal peace and relative stability and cohesion in order to ward off the multiple external threat she is currently facing.



Educator
Member
Posts: 2370
Joined: 03 Jun 2021, 00:14

Re: War & Diplomacy Between States Operate On Incomplete Knowledge, Ambiguity, Unpredictability & Uncertainty

Post by Educator » 06 Jul 2024, 01:18

Horus,
Your MOU has been fake from the get go. Let it rest in peace. You're just trying hard to defend your foolishness in believing Mamo Killo. No matter how vigorously you defend it, you won't get any comfort for being so stupid and ignorant of politics, economics and sociology. You are good for nothing in terms of current affairs of the world in general and Ethiopia in particular.

Remember how adamantly defended and worshipped your fellow Gurage Birr Amtu Sainega and the "contemporary Minilik" or some phrase you used to call SATAN Mamo Killo?
Horus wrote:
14 Jul 2022, 19:49
ጉራጌን ክልል ከመሆን የሚገታው አንዳች ሃይል የለም!!!!

Horus
Senior Member+
Posts: 40292
Joined: 19 Oct 2013, 19:34

Re: War & Diplomacy Between States Operate On Incomplete Knowledge, Ambiguity, Unpredictability & Uncertainty

Post by Horus » 06 Jul 2024, 02:22

Educator wrote:
06 Jul 2024, 01:18
Horus,
Your MOU has been fake from the get go. Let it rest in peace. You're just trying hard to defend your foolishness in believing Mamo Killo. No matter how vigorously you defend it, you won't get any comfort for being so stupid and ignorant of politics, economics and sociology. You are good for nothing in terms of current affairs of the world in general and Ethiopia in particular.

Remember how adamantly defended and worshipped your fellow Gurage Birr Amtu Sainega and the "contemporary Minilik" or some phrase you used to call SATAN Mamo Killo?
Horus wrote:
14 Jul 2022, 19:49
ጉራጌን ክልል ከመሆን የሚገታው አንዳች ሃይል የለም!!!!
አንተ ቆሼ ወያኔ ብርሃኑጎ ወደድክም ጠላህም እየገዛህ ነው ። አንተ ዉሸታም! ስለ ወደብ የሚወራው ፌክ ከሆነ ለምንድ ነው ስለ ወደብ ሲነጻ የምትንቀጠቀጠው? የወደቀ ወያኔ ! እንዳንተ ያለ ፍንዲያ ጸረ ኢትዮጵያን ነው ለ27 አመት በጫንቃችን የተሸከምነው ፣ የግብጽ አቃጣሪ ተገንጣይ ሁላ! ጽሁፌ የማይመችህ ከሆነ አታንብበኛ !! በቃ! ግም ደደቢት ሂድና ሴቶችህ ድፈር ከዚያ እንዳይናገሩ ግደላቸው !!


Selam/
Senior Member
Posts: 17035
Joined: 04 Aug 2018, 13:15

Re: War & Diplomacy Between States Operate On Incomplete Knowledge, Ambiguity, Unpredictability & Uncertainty

Post by Selam/ » 06 Jul 2024, 10:53

የሃገራችን የውጭ ሃገር ግንኙነት ፖሊሲ የሚቀረፀው ከፖለቲካ ውጪ ባሉ ምሁራንና የዲፕሎማሲ ዕውቀትና ልምድ ባላቸው አንጋፋ ኢትዮጵያውያን ቢሆን ኖሮ፣ የምትሞጫጭረውን መጣጥፍህን ‘እህ!’ ብዬ በጥሞና አነበው ነበር። ነገር ግን መሬት ላይ ያለው ዕውነታ ከዚህ የራቀ ነው።

በቅድሚያ፣ የሃገር ሉዓላዊነትና ዘላቂያዊ ጥቅም የምትላቸው ጉዳዮች ከሃገር ውስጥ ፖለቲካ ጋራ በፍፁም የማይገናኙ፣ በኢትዮጵያ ብሔራዊ መዝሙርና ሰንደቅ ዓላማ ብቻ ተከበው በባዶ ቫኪዩም ውስጥ የሚከወኑ ነገሮች ናቸው ብሎ ማሰብ ልክ የኒውተን የስበት ሕግ የለም ብሎ እንደመካድ ይቆጠራል። በተለይም የወያኔና የብልፅግና የውጪ ፖሊሲዎች፣ በሃገሪቱ ውስጥ ባሉት የፖለቲካ አጀንዳዎች የታሰሩና የተለወሱ ብቻ ሳይሆኑ፣ የሃገሪቱን አስተዳደር የግል ጥቅም በቀጥታ የሚያስጠብቁና የሚያንፀባርቁ ኩነቶች ናቸው። ይኸንን ለማወቅ ቅንድብህን መንቀል አይጠበቅብህም። ለምን ሲጀመር በጎጥ ከፋፈሉን? ለምንስ ከጎረቤት ሃገሮች ጋር ሲፈልጉ ጦርነት ከፍተው፣ ወዲያው ተገለባብጠው የውሸት ዘንባባ ያነጥፋሉ ብሎ መጠየቅ ነው።

በመቀጠል፣ ህዝባችን በአንድ አላዋቂና ዕርጉም ጉረምሳ ዕብሪት ደም እያለቀሰ ባለበት ወቅት፣ ቱርክና ግብፅ ሃገርህን ሊያፈርሷት መጥተዋልና ደምህን እያዘራህም ቢሆን ይኸንን ክፉ የበሻሻ ወጠጤ ደግፍ ብሎ በአሽሙር ማስፈራራትና ማላዘን፣ ልክ የኒውተንን አፕል ከዛፉ ላይ ተንጠልጥላ እንድትቀር እንደ መመኘት ይቆጠራል። አንተ ስበትን ለማቆም አጎንብሰህ ስትሞጫጭር፣ እሷ ግን በራሷ ከዛፉ ላይ ወርዳ ትኮረኩምሀለች።

Horus wrote:
05 Jul 2024, 22:26
ER's sensational news addicts and random consumers of information are in considerable discomfort when it comes to the mysterious workings of the Ethio-Somaliland MOU.

In fact, it is the very nature of war, diplomacy & inter-state affairs to be vague, secretive, unpredictable, ambiguous, and uncertain. This is precisely so because matters of war and diplomacy are governed not by news entertainment but by the theory of game - the game of war & peace between states. It is a serious and deadly game.

Let alone the day to day moves, drama and optics of state behaviors, the very motive and strategic objectives of the state are suppose to remain unknown to the enemy or the competing state.

For example, consider Egypt's game theory with respect to the MOU. Only fools would believe that Egypt is behaving the way it does to support Somalia. Egypt's singular centuries old permanent objective is to encircle, destabilize, weaken and thwart the Ethiopian state and nation. This is what it is doing right at this moment - trying to sabotage the Nile Dam & keep Ethiopia away from the Red Sea.

Consider Turkey's behavior in this region miles far away from its borders. Its singular objective is to restore the power, wealth and glory of the Ottoman Empire and it is working methodically to achieve that objective. Somalia is mere opportunity and a tool of the Turkish imperial ambition.

Consider the oil and gold seeking Sheiks of Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, et al. Each has its singular objective - control of wealth, Gold, marine resources , Fertile land and markets.

Given all these driving forces, it is tragic to observe the shameful, unconscious, totally idiotic behaviors of the HoA petty bourgeoisie that seems to have forever forfeited its own interest and has become a willing servant & slave of these external powers.

Whatever the cost and duration the effort, Ethiopia will gather its currently dispersed and scattered energies and will secure its maritime state status. I have said again and again, Ethiopia needs, must, has to quickly find internal peace and relative stability and cohesion in order to ward off the multiple external threat she is currently facing.
Last edited by Selam/ on 06 Jul 2024, 15:52, edited 5 times in total.

Abere
Senior Member
Posts: 14874
Joined: 18 Jul 2019, 20:52

Re: War & Diplomacy Between States Operate On Incomplete Knowledge, Ambiguity, Unpredictability & Uncertainty

Post by Abere » 06 Jul 2024, 11:54

In my opinion, the most essential point is

What is the most effective solution to cut the cost and time so as to optimally achieve national cohesion? Time is the essence, cutting time means cutting cost/loss. Time should not be left as an unlimited resource - 50 years already wasted. Can Ethiopia afford another 50 years? There has to be an effective response to stop this wastage. Time should be regarded as constraint too.

Horus wrote:
05 Jul 2024, 22:26

Whatever the cost and duration the effort, Ethiopia will gather its currently dispersed and scattered energies and will secure its maritime state status. I have said again and again, Ethiopia needs, must, has to quickly find internal peace and relative stability and cohesion in order to ward off the multiple external threat she is currently facing.
[/quote]

Selam/
Senior Member
Posts: 17035
Joined: 04 Aug 2018, 13:15

Re: War & Diplomacy Between States Operate On Incomplete Knowledge, Ambiguity, Unpredictability & Uncertainty

Post by Selam/ » 06 Jul 2024, 22:25

ወራዳ ብርሃኑ ነጋ!


Horus wrote:
06 Jul 2024, 02:22
Educator wrote:
06 Jul 2024, 01:18
Horus,
Your MOU has been fake from the get go. Let it rest in peace. You're just trying hard to defend your foolishness in believing Mamo Killo. No matter how vigorously you defend it, you won't get any comfort for being so stupid and ignorant of politics, economics and sociology. You are good for nothing in terms of current affairs of the world in general and Ethiopia in particular.

Remember how adamantly defended and worshipped your fellow Gurage Birr Amtu Sainega and the "contemporary Minilik" or some phrase you used to call SATAN Mamo Killo?
Horus wrote:
14 Jul 2022, 19:49
ጉራጌን ክልል ከመሆን የሚገታው አንዳች ሃይል የለም!!!!
አንተ ቆሼ ወያኔ ብርሃኑጎ ወደድክም ጠላህም እየገዛህ ነው ። አንተ ዉሸታም! ስለ ወደብ የሚወራው ፌክ ከሆነ ለምንድ ነው ስለ ወደብ ሲነጻ የምትንቀጠቀጠው? የወደቀ ወያኔ ! እንዳንተ ያለ ፍንዲያ ጸረ ኢትዮጵያን ነው ለ27 አመት በጫንቃችን የተሸከምነው ፣ የግብጽ አቃጣሪ ተገንጣይ ሁላ! ጽሁፌ የማይመችህ ከሆነ አታንብበኛ !! በቃ! ግም ደደቢት ሂድና ሴቶችህ ድፈር ከዚያ እንዳይናገሩ ግደላቸው !!

Selam/
Senior Member
Posts: 17035
Joined: 04 Aug 2018, 13:15

Re: War & Diplomacy Between States Operate On Incomplete Knowledge, Ambiguity, Unpredictability & Uncertainty

Post by Selam/ » 06 Jul 2024, 22:25

ወራዳ ብርሃኑ ነጋ!


Horus wrote:
06 Jul 2024, 02:22
Educator wrote:
06 Jul 2024, 01:18
Horus,
Your MOU has been fake from the get go. Let it rest in peace. You're just trying hard to defend your foolishness in believing Mamo Killo. No matter how vigorously you defend it, you won't get any comfort for being so stupid and ignorant of politics, economics and sociology. You are good for nothing in terms of current affairs of the world in general and Ethiopia in particular.

Remember how adamantly defended and worshipped your fellow Gurage Birr Amtu Sainega and the "contemporary Minilik" or some phrase you used to call SATAN Mamo Killo?
Horus wrote:
14 Jul 2022, 19:49
ጉራጌን ክልል ከመሆን የሚገታው አንዳች ሃይል የለም!!!!
አንተ ቆሼ ወያኔ ብርሃኑጎ ወደድክም ጠላህም እየገዛህ ነው ። አንተ ዉሸታም! ስለ ወደብ የሚወራው ፌክ ከሆነ ለምንድ ነው ስለ ወደብ ሲነጻ የምትንቀጠቀጠው? የወደቀ ወያኔ ! እንዳንተ ያለ ፍንዲያ ጸረ ኢትዮጵያን ነው ለ27 አመት በጫንቃችን የተሸከምነው ፣ የግብጽ አቃጣሪ ተገንጣይ ሁላ! ጽሁፌ የማይመችህ ከሆነ አታንብበኛ !! በቃ! ግም ደደቢት ሂድና ሴቶችህ ድፈር ከዚያ እንዳይናገሩ ግደላቸው !!

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