"5-6 million". How did you figure?
A book published in 1972 put at between 6-8 million.
Take the lower figure of 6 million. Multiply it by 2% surviving birth rate annually. Compound 2% annually for the next 52 years to 2024. That figure is the conservative estimate of Gurage population this year.
12 million? 15 million. You do the maths.
Re: Askale Dama's guess of Gurage pop is wrong
Waited for two days hoping you will do a calculated estimate of the Gurage population in 2024. I have no idea why are too lazy to pick up a pencil and paper.
Anyways, I did it. A very conservative estimate of present Gurage population, meaning lower end of the range of estimates due to many variables.
1. Birth rates in developing countries range from 2.5 to 3%.
2. Absence of war in Gurage is not taken into consideration
3. A relatively wealthier Gurage living standards not taken into consideration
4. Absence of prolonged drought lasting more than two years not taken into consideration
5. Absence of locusts migrating from Eritrea not taken into consideration.
6. I used a 2% annual birth rate compounding all through the 52 years since 1972, the year of first published estimate of the Gurage population was given as between 6-8million. This estimate included all Gurages in Gurage proper and outside of Gurage, the geographic extent of which stretched from Zway to Endegane to Sebat Bet to Chebo and Sodo.
7. The Gurage population in 2024 is 16, 740, 766.
Anyways, I did it. A very conservative estimate of present Gurage population, meaning lower end of the range of estimates due to many variables.
1. Birth rates in developing countries range from 2.5 to 3%.
2. Absence of war in Gurage is not taken into consideration
3. A relatively wealthier Gurage living standards not taken into consideration
4. Absence of prolonged drought lasting more than two years not taken into consideration
5. Absence of locusts migrating from Eritrea not taken into consideration.
6. I used a 2% annual birth rate compounding all through the 52 years since 1972, the year of first published estimate of the Gurage population was given as between 6-8million. This estimate included all Gurages in Gurage proper and outside of Gurage, the geographic extent of which stretched from Zway to Endegane to Sebat Bet to Chebo and Sodo.
7. The Gurage population in 2024 is 16, 740, 766.
Re: Askale Dama's guess of Gurage pop is wrong
Correction
above figure can't be right because it assumed all the 6,000,000 figure to be married couples bearing children.
above figure can't be right because it assumed all the 6,000,000 figure to be married couples bearing children.
Re: Askale Dama's guess of Gurage pop is wrong
I may be in my calculation. Gurage pop could be lower than 17 mil.