Ukraine's Frontline Is Collapsing
Posted: 29 Feb 2024, 02:02
Russia's capture of Avdiivka has been followed by continued gains by Moscow in Ukraine, as concerns grow about continued United States support for Kyiv's forces, who one military expert told Newsweek are "both outmanned and outgunned along the front."
Russian forces have maintained momentum after Ukraine's retreat from the Donetsk town on February 17 which was partly blamed on ammunition shortages.
Moscow's advances since then have been incremental and are unlikely to be rapid in the short-term but hold-ups in Western aid for Kyiv threaten to hand Vladimir Putin the initiative.
The Institute for the Study of War said Tuesday that Russian forces are exploiting tactical opportunities opened up by Avdiivka's seizure and are trying to push as far as possible into the surrounding area before Ukrainian forces establish more cohesive defensive lines.
The previous day, Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces spokesman Dmytro Lykhovyi said his troops had withdrawn from Stepove, around eight miles north of Avdiivka. Meanwhile, Russian sources have claimed Moscow's seizure of Tonenke to the south and other surrounding areas.
The Washington, D.C. think tank's latest maps on Tuesday show Russian advances in other parts of Donetsk oblast, namely west of Bakhmut, and in nearby eastern and central Ivanivske.
"Avdiivka was a pyrrhic victory but a victory nonetheless. The ground behind it is flatter and the breaching of this stronghold calls into question Ukraine's overall strategy amid the hold-up in U.S. Congress," said Zev Faintuch, senior intelligence analyst at security firm Global Guardian.
The U.S. Senate supported a $95 billion aid bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan on February 13, with over $60 billion allocated for Ukraine. However, it still needs approval from the U.S. House of Representatives.
"If the aid bill isn't passed soon, there will be more Avdiivkas as Russia tries to seize the opportunity to cement its gains in Donetsk," Faintuch told Newsweek.
Ukraine's Defenses
Military analyst Mike Kofman, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment, told the War on the Rocks podcast that Ukraine "does not have good secondary lines" and was "quite behind in entrenching across the front."
"Behind Avdiivka, Ukraine has some defenses, but it is not a strong line," Kofman said on February 24. "The Russian military may run out of momentum, but on the other hand if they are able to fully sustain these offensives pushes over the coming year, then eventually they may find more and more open terrain," which could lead to a "potentially slippery slope."
Russian forces have maintained momentum after Ukraine's retreat from the Donetsk town on February 17 which was partly blamed on ammunition shortages.
Moscow's advances since then have been incremental and are unlikely to be rapid in the short-term but hold-ups in Western aid for Kyiv threaten to hand Vladimir Putin the initiative.
The Institute for the Study of War said Tuesday that Russian forces are exploiting tactical opportunities opened up by Avdiivka's seizure and are trying to push as far as possible into the surrounding area before Ukrainian forces establish more cohesive defensive lines.
The previous day, Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces spokesman Dmytro Lykhovyi said his troops had withdrawn from Stepove, around eight miles north of Avdiivka. Meanwhile, Russian sources have claimed Moscow's seizure of Tonenke to the south and other surrounding areas.
The Washington, D.C. think tank's latest maps on Tuesday show Russian advances in other parts of Donetsk oblast, namely west of Bakhmut, and in nearby eastern and central Ivanivske.
"Avdiivka was a pyrrhic victory but a victory nonetheless. The ground behind it is flatter and the breaching of this stronghold calls into question Ukraine's overall strategy amid the hold-up in U.S. Congress," said Zev Faintuch, senior intelligence analyst at security firm Global Guardian.
The U.S. Senate supported a $95 billion aid bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan on February 13, with over $60 billion allocated for Ukraine. However, it still needs approval from the U.S. House of Representatives.
"If the aid bill isn't passed soon, there will be more Avdiivkas as Russia tries to seize the opportunity to cement its gains in Donetsk," Faintuch told Newsweek.
Ukraine's Defenses
Military analyst Mike Kofman, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment, told the War on the Rocks podcast that Ukraine "does not have good secondary lines" and was "quite behind in entrenching across the front."
"Behind Avdiivka, Ukraine has some defenses, but it is not a strong line," Kofman said on February 24. "The Russian military may run out of momentum, but on the other hand if they are able to fully sustain these offensives pushes over the coming year, then eventually they may find more and more open terrain," which could lead to a "potentially slippery slope."