Abiy's future is to be determined by strengthening his relation with TPLF & OLA or reconcilation with Isaias and FANO.
Posted: 23 Feb 2024, 19:11
Abiy's government is surrounded & trapped by polarized enemies and it's independent existence is threatened more than ever. The ongoing lawlessness & disruptive environment through out Ethiopia as demonstrated by civil wars & frequent defeat of Abiy forces, uncontrolled kidnappings, extrajudicial killings, deep rooted corruption and economic melt down are clear indications that Abiy's government has reached to the point that it cannot move forward with out making a political maneuver to win some of its adversaries to its side:
To sustain his survival Abiy has the following options:
1- Mending the fractured alliance with Amhara extremists and Isaias.
2- Deepening the relationship with TPLF by implementing the Preitorea Agreement, Legalizing TPLF , conducting election in Tigray and work with the elected government ( there is no doubt Tigray will elect TPLF) of Tigray on win-win arrangement. Similarly peace agreement with OLA to share power in Oromia and stabilizing Oromia with PP and OLA joint effort :
Analysis of the above options:
Mending of the fractured alliance with Amhara extremists and Isaias is possible if Abiy agrees to be their puppet and agree to replace the existing Federal Constitution by a Unitary Constitution , where OLA and TPLF shall be crushed( millions of people will die) and eliminated from the face of the earth. Under this option Abiy will rebrand himself as Unitary King ( like Tedros or Minilik or Haile Selassie ). The country regions would be structured with out considerations of Ethinic and cultural values. Under these conditions, Amhara extremists and Isaias could easily embrace Abiy but he will be their puppet .
- Deepening the reconcilation and relationship with TPLF and Peace deal and reconcilation with OLA with power sharing for OLA in Oromia will help Abiy to stabilize Ethiopia at minimal cost. With this option PP, TPLF and OLA could create strategic alliance with PP and with the possibility to integrate over the years.
Under this option Abiy will loose his authoritarian rule style but continue to be an empowered Chief Executive to implement his vision of prospering Ethiopia but with check and balance and consensus based decision making with TPLF and OLA . The Federal Constitution will be refined but the country will continue as a Federation with refined geopolitical boundaries to further consolidate the Federation.
The way forward:
Axumezana's recommendation is for Abiy to further deepen his relationship with TPLF through political dialogue. Similarly the peace negotiation with OLA has to contuinue and both parties have to compromise and agree to coexist , ally and integrate down the line. OLA and PP have to share power in Oromia and the Federal offices in an equitable manner. Similarly the elected government of Tigray has to be represented in the Federal government and contribute it's part to support Abiy to stabilize the country.
Abiy has to choose between being the puppet of Amhara extremists and Isaias versus to be an empowered Federalist Chief Executive Officer but with democratic check and balance so that he leads the country as per the Constitution.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=339047#p1458618
To sustain his survival Abiy has the following options:
1- Mending the fractured alliance with Amhara extremists and Isaias.
2- Deepening the relationship with TPLF by implementing the Preitorea Agreement, Legalizing TPLF , conducting election in Tigray and work with the elected government ( there is no doubt Tigray will elect TPLF) of Tigray on win-win arrangement. Similarly peace agreement with OLA to share power in Oromia and stabilizing Oromia with PP and OLA joint effort :
Analysis of the above options:
Mending of the fractured alliance with Amhara extremists and Isaias is possible if Abiy agrees to be their puppet and agree to replace the existing Federal Constitution by a Unitary Constitution , where OLA and TPLF shall be crushed( millions of people will die) and eliminated from the face of the earth. Under this option Abiy will rebrand himself as Unitary King ( like Tedros or Minilik or Haile Selassie ). The country regions would be structured with out considerations of Ethinic and cultural values. Under these conditions, Amhara extremists and Isaias could easily embrace Abiy but he will be their puppet .
- Deepening the reconcilation and relationship with TPLF and Peace deal and reconcilation with OLA with power sharing for OLA in Oromia will help Abiy to stabilize Ethiopia at minimal cost. With this option PP, TPLF and OLA could create strategic alliance with PP and with the possibility to integrate over the years.
Under this option Abiy will loose his authoritarian rule style but continue to be an empowered Chief Executive to implement his vision of prospering Ethiopia but with check and balance and consensus based decision making with TPLF and OLA . The Federal Constitution will be refined but the country will continue as a Federation with refined geopolitical boundaries to further consolidate the Federation.
The way forward:
Axumezana's recommendation is for Abiy to further deepen his relationship with TPLF through political dialogue. Similarly the peace negotiation with OLA has to contuinue and both parties have to compromise and agree to coexist , ally and integrate down the line. OLA and PP have to share power in Oromia and the Federal offices in an equitable manner. Similarly the elected government of Tigray has to be represented in the Federal government and contribute it's part to support Abiy to stabilize the country.
Abiy has to choose between being the puppet of Amhara extremists and Isaias versus to be an empowered Federalist Chief Executive Officer but with democratic check and balance so that he leads the country as per the Constitution.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=339047#p1458618
