Mereja.Forum

#Ethiopia: #Egypt vacates the seat at GERD negotiations, what is next?
https://addisstandard.com/analysis-egyp ... t-is-next/

After a decade-long dialogue, Egypt has officially withdrawn from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (#GERD) negotiations, marking a pivotal moment in the tripartite talks involving Ethiopia, #Sudan, and Egypt. The move follows a stalemate in talks with Ethiopia, who insists on its right to use the Nile for its national development, countering Egypt's position that emphasizes historical water rights and security concerns.

The stalemate has been characterized by Ethiopia's assertion of its right to use Nile waters for equitable and reasonable utilization, clashing with Egypt's stance on maintaining historical water rights. This has led to a deepening rift, with Ethiopia accusing Egypt of adhering to a colonial-era mentality that hinders progress towards a fair agreement.

Experts like Tirusew Assefa, a hydrology expert at the University of South Florida, observed, "There has been minimal alteration in the respective positions of Ethiopia and Egypt]." Tirusrw's commentary underscores the enduring deadlock, with Ethiopia's developmental rights to the Nile's waters at the core of its stance. Gashaw Ayferam, a hydro-politics expert, added that the negotiations are hampered by "the geopolitical instrumentalization and securitization of the dam project," which limits the scope for negotiation flexibility.

The path forward is complex. Some analysts propose third-party mediation to break the impasse, while others foresee the potential for international forums to play a role. The coming period is crucial for the Nile Basin countries to explore new strategies for cooperation or risk deepening regional tensions.



Dr Zackovich

What's next?

The law of unintended consequences will decide as fairly as it can between the two aid-addict countries.

Do you think this could be one of the reason for seeking a Naval Base on Red Sea? And Egypt is frantic angry about this new development.

Fiyameta wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 13:40

What's next?

The law of unintended consequences will decide as fairly as it can between the two aid-addict countries.

All Egypt has to do is to bomb the sh.it out of this fuc.king GERD, as Trump once suggested it.

Although, we would have no problem whatsoever to allow Egypt to use our soil to launch any military operations it deems useful, Egypt's formidable air force is technically capable of an attack on the GERD. in addition, Egyptian Scud-B ballistic missiles are easily capable of reaching Ethiopian territory and bringing the GERD comedy to an end.

Let us not forget Abiy Ahmed himself is the product of Egypt itself. Egypt is the hub of all enemies of Ethiopia. Why Abiy Ahmed flipped against them is a puzzle. The problem with Egypt is irreconcilable. Egypt thinks Abay river is her exclusive right for use and this impossible to accept. The sad reality is this conflict will be perpetual and the region will live in poverty. As long as Egypt remains in the equation, the puzzle will remain unsolved.

sesame wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 13:54

Abere,

If Abiy thinks he has a right to own a Red Sea port, then why shouldn't Egypt have a right to own the Nile at its source? Egypt might now bomb the dam not to destroy it but to make a point! We shall see. In any case, Abiyot is destroying Ethiopia! Good luck! When Ethiopia disintegrates like a broken glass, it will be much worse than Yugoslavia. No one wishes that. Ethiopians must get rid of Abiy and start to respect their neighbors!

It is impossible for a coastal country like Egypt to attack a naturally landlocked country like Ethiopia by sea, therefore Ethiopia has nothing to worry about a seaborne attack, for the same reason caged chickens are safe from a shark attack. But I'm not denying that, there is a lot of money to be made working as a naval mercenary that entices landlocked mercenaries to violate international laws seeking to make a fortune on the high seas

Abere wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 13:44

Do you think this could be one of the reason for seeking a Naval Base on Red Sea? And Egypt is frantic angry about this new development.

Fiyameta wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 13:40

What's next?

The law of unintended consequences will decide as fairly as it can between the two aid-addict countries.

In fact that is not true. Repeatedly, Egypt has sought closer military naval position in the Red Sea to attack Ethiopia. Since it does not have capabilities to do so without getting a naval base within a short distance to Ethiopia. Egypt wanted Somalia 's Indian ocean base as its launching pad to face off Ethiopia.

Fiyameta wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 14:22

It is impossible for a coastal country like Egypt to attack a naturally landlocked country like Ethiopia by sea, therefore Ethiopia has nothing to worry about a seaborne attack, for the same reason caged chickens are safe from a shark attack. But I'm not denying that, there is a lot of money to be made working as a naval mercenary that entices landlocked mercenaries to violate international laws seeking to make a fortune on the high seas

Abere wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 13:44

Do you think this could be one of the reason for seeking a Naval Base on Red Sea? And Egypt is frantic angry about this new development.

Fiyameta wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 13:40

What's next?

The law of unintended consequences will decide as fairly as it can between the two aid-addict countries.

Too late for Egypt to do anything against it. Also, Ethiopia can have all the technologies and weapons Egypt has. Egypts only means is to get naval base in the Red Sea within short distance. This is a no brainer. If Egypt opens war in the West front of Ethiopia, she will be picked like chicken on the ground. That is why she so much focused on the Red Sea. The news that Somaliland gave naval base for 50 years is very chilling for Egypt.

Horus wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 14:28

Talk is not only cheap, it is free! If Egypt tries to damage GERD, all Ethiopia needs to do is open the gates the biblical flood and that would be the End of Egypt as we know it. GERD is an Atomic Bomb on its own right!

Egypt is a Red Sea nation, and it's only natural for Red Sea nations to have naval presence on the Red Sea. If I were you, I would be worried about Egypt giving recognition to Benishangul-Gumuz, following the “ሊበሏት ያሰቧትን አሞራ ጅግራ ናት ይሏታል” principle popularized by Abiy Ahmed Ali.

Abere wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 14:29

In fact that is not true. Repeatedly, Egypt has sought closer military naval position in the Red Sea to attack Ethiopia. Since it does not have capabilities to do so without getting a naval base within a short distance to Ethiopia. Egypt wanted Somalia 's Indian ocean base as its launching pad to face off Ethiopia.

Fiyameta wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 14:22

It is impossible for a coastal country like Egypt to attack a naturally landlocked country like Ethiopia by sea, therefore Ethiopia has nothing to worry about a seaborne attack, for the same reason caged chickens are safe from a shark attack. But I'm not denying that, there is a lot of money to be made working as a naval mercenary that entices landlocked mercenaries to violate international laws seeking to make a fortune on the high seas

Abere wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 13:44

Do you think this could be one of the reason for seeking a Naval Base on Red Sea? And Egypt is frantic angry about this new development.

Fiyameta wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 13:40

What's next?

The law of unintended consequences will decide as fairly as it can between the two aid-addict countries.

You are joking

If I worry about Egypt attacking all the way from Cairo to Gojam(Metekel or Gumuz) 2,463 Km, should I worry about Afar too.

Fiyameta wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 16:16

Egypt is a Red Sea nation, and it's only natural for Red Sea nations to have naval presence on the Red Sea. If I were you, I would be worried about Egypt giving recognition to Benishangul-Gumuz, following the “ሊበሏት ያሰቧትን አሞራ ጅግራ ናት ይሏታል” principle popularized by Abiy Ahmed. .

Abere wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 14:29

In fact that is not true. Repeatedly, Egypt has sought closer military naval position in the Red Sea to attack Ethiopia. Since it does not have capabilities to do so without getting a naval base within a short distance to Ethiopia. Egypt wanted Somalia 's Indian ocean base as its launching pad to face off Ethiopia.

Fiyameta wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 14:22

It is impossible for a coastal country like Egypt to attack a naturally landlocked country like Ethiopia by sea, therefore Ethiopia has nothing to worry about a seaborne attack, for the same reason caged chickens are safe from a shark attack. But I'm not denying that, there is a lot of money to be made working as a naval mercenary that entices landlocked mercenaries to violate international laws seeking to make a fortune on the high seas

Abere wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 13:44

Do you think this could be one of the reason for seeking a Naval Base on Red Sea? And Egypt is frantic angry about this new development.

Fiyameta wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 13:40

What's next?

The law of unintended consequences will decide as fairly as it can between the two aid-addict countries.

If technically possible, then Ethiopia should pump back the water after it has hit the turbine and generated electricity, so that it will never flow in the direction of Egypt.

Respect is not a one way street!

Abere wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 16:21

You are joking

If I worry about Egypt attacking all the way from Cairo to Gojam(Metekel or Gumuz) 2,463 Km, should I worry about Afar too.

Fiyameta wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 16:16

Egypt is a Red Sea nation, and it's only natural for Red Sea nations to have naval presence on the Red Sea. If I were you, I would be worried about Egypt giving recognition to Benishangul-Gumuz, following the “ሊበሏት ያሰቧትን አሞራ ጅግራ ናት ይሏታል” principle popularized by Abiy Ahmed. .

Abere wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 14:29

In fact that is not true. Repeatedly, Egypt has sought closer military naval position in the Red Sea to attack Ethiopia. Since it does not have capabilities to do so without getting a naval base within a short distance to Ethiopia. Egypt wanted Somalia 's Indian ocean base as its launching pad to face off Ethiopia.

Fiyameta wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 14:22

It is impossible for a coastal country like Egypt to attack a naturally landlocked country like Ethiopia by sea, therefore Ethiopia has nothing to worry about a seaborne attack, for the same reason caged chickens are safe from a shark attack. But I'm not denying that, there is a lot of money to be made working as a naval mercenary that entices landlocked mercenaries to violate international laws seeking to make a fortune on the high seas

Abere wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 13:44

Do you think this could be one of the reason for seeking a Naval Base on Red Sea? And Egypt is frantic angry about this new development.

Fiyameta wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 13:40

What's next?

The law of unintended consequences will decide as fairly as it can between the two aid-addict countries.

What if Eritrea let Egypt use Eritrea's land and airspace? Even more, what if Eritrea give military base in Eritrea?

President Trump suggested Egypt blow up the dam using fighter planes it acquired from the United States. Why are you not worried about an aerial attack that is more plausible than naval? I'm only trying to help you think in practical terms.

Abere wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 16:21

You are joking

If I worry about Egypt attacking all the way from Cairo to Gojam(Metekel or Gumuz) 2,463 Km, should I worry about Afar too.

Fiyameta wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 16:16

Egypt is a Red Sea nation, and it's only natural for Red Sea nations to have naval presence on the Red Sea. If I were you, I would be worried about Egypt giving recognition to Benishangul-Gumuz, following the “ሊበሏት ያሰቧትን አሞራ ጅግራ ናት ይሏታል” principle popularized by Abiy Ahmed. .

Abere wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 14:29

In fact that is not true. Repeatedly, Egypt has sought closer military naval position in the Red Sea to attack Ethiopia. Since it does not have capabilities to do so without getting a naval base within a short distance to Ethiopia. Egypt wanted Somalia 's Indian ocean base as its launching pad to face off Ethiopia.

Fiyameta wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 14:22

It is impossible for a coastal country like Egypt to attack a naturally landlocked country like Ethiopia by sea, therefore Ethiopia has nothing to worry about a seaborne attack, for the same reason caged chickens are safe from a shark attack. But I'm not denying that, there is a lot of money to be made working as a naval mercenary that entices landlocked mercenaries to violate international laws seeking to make a fortune on the high seas

Abere wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 13:44

Do you think this could be one of the reason for seeking a Naval Base on Red Sea? And Egypt is frantic angry about this new development.

Fiyameta wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 13:40

What's next?

The law of unintended consequences will decide as fairly as it can between the two aid-addict countries.

Please do not embarrass Egypt just like Trump used to mock COVID-19, he finally until airlifted by military helicopter on stretcher fighting for his own life. Talk is different from reality. Egypt will be shot down before even she leaves her own airspace. Do not forget Ethiopia is still the military might in the region. That was what Egypt would have loved to do but has no means to sail 2,463 km. That is why we hear so much noise and foul cry

Fiyameta wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 16:31

President Trump suggested Egypt blow up the dam using fighter planes it acquired from the United States. Why are you not worried about an aerial attack that is more plausible than naval? I'm only trying to help you think in practical terms.

Abere wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 16:21

You are joking

If I worry about Egypt attacking all the way from Cairo to Gojam(Metekel or Gumuz) 2,463 Km, should I worry about Afar too.

Fiyameta wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 16:16

Egypt is a Red Sea nation, and it's only natural for Red Sea nations to have naval presence on the Red Sea. If I were you, I would be worried about Egypt giving recognition to Benishangul-Gumuz, following the “ሊበሏት ያሰቧትን አሞራ ጅግራ ናት ይሏታል” principle popularized by Abiy Ahmed. .

Abere wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 14:29

In fact that is not true. Repeatedly, Egypt has sought closer military naval position in the Red Sea to attack Ethiopia. Since it does not have capabilities to do so without getting a naval base within a short distance to Ethiopia. Egypt wanted Somalia 's Indian ocean base as its launching pad to face off Ethiopia.

Fiyameta wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 14:22

It is impossible for a coastal country like Egypt to attack a naturally landlocked country like Ethiopia by sea, therefore Ethiopia has nothing to worry about a seaborne attack, for the same reason caged chickens are safe from a shark attack. But I'm not denying that, there is a lot of money to be made working as a naval mercenary that entices landlocked mercenaries to violate international laws seeking to make a fortune on the high seas

Abere wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2024, 13:44

Do you think this could be one of the reason for seeking a Naval Base on Red Sea? And Egypt is frantic angry about this new development.

Egypt can easily fire cruise missiles from the Red Sea, Massawa shore into anywhere in war-torn Ethiopia, Egyptian naval forces will certainly bomb Addis Ababa.

I remember listening to one of Ethiopia's elite who was complaining about why Egypt receives $1.3 Billion in military aid from the United States, while Ethiopia only gets $300 Million.