Extracted from the article " TPLF/ EPRDF the Past and the Future" by Ermias Hailu dated on June 8, 2018!
" My advices to Dr. Abiy Ahmed and his comrades who are ready for radical change and making history are also as follows:
EPRDF will not survive without re-birth and regeneration – Please continue to boldly champion the change by progressively putting the new wine into a new skin. You may be called inexperienced, naive, arrogant by the EPRDF aging generation but you should win your comrades through dialogue, transparency, understanding, love, patience and persistence. They are the most important stakeholders for your success not the Egypt funded various political groups and/or so-called activists from the diaspora.
Widen the scope of EPRDF by integrating Somalia, Afar, Gambella and Benishangul Gumuz representative parties.
Develop and implement three to five years radical transformation (rebirth) strategy for EPRDF and its member parties with a new vision, mission, values and goals and programs. Identify the need of Ethiopians and work backward.
Give top priority to unify and rally all EPRDF members behind you. Your political legitimacy, weight and strength and effectiveness emanates from united and strong EPRDF not from the diaspora or from the popularity you have among Ethiopians. Take note that: The crowds that laid their clothes on the ground to welcome Jesus Christ as he triumphantly enters Jerusalem were easily misguided/manipulated within few days by their leaders and shouted for his crucification, while demanding for the release of the notorious prisoner Barabbas.
Participate! Participate……. Participate………. Participate all key stakeholders- a critical success factor for effective change management.
Widen the political space for the competition but be innocent as a dove and wise and discerning as a serpent. We have so called politicians /activists from the diaspora who are agents of strategic enemies of Ethiopia including Egypt who plan to destabilize and/or enslave Ethiopia at any cost.
On the shortage of hard currency look for quick wins such as mobilizing the diaspora and creating innovative incentives that compensate the difference in exchange rate between the official and parallel market ( reduced price condominiums, lands and duty free or reduced import tax privileges could be offered as a reward to the Ethiopians in the diaspora once their remittance reward points reaches to a certain threshold similar to the airline loyalty reward program).There should be also focus on tourism, minerals, precious stones, oil & gas exploration etc., to boost export revenue that will be used to fund strategic capital projects for sustainable development of the country. Inhouse production of fertilizer, increasing the production of wheat (by changing the land policy and progressively avoiding subsides on imported wheat) and increased awareness on the use of inhouse manufactured goods also could reduce foreign currency requirement. Over the last 27 years, EPRDF was blinded not to exploit the wealth underneath (to generate easier capital) because its agriculture led development strategy started with the assumption that the main resources the country have are only “land and cheap abundant labor”, which is completely not true. What about the uncolonized mindset that could transform Ethiopia and Africa? What about the unexplored wealth underground? What about the religious, historical, cultural and natural tourist attractions? What about the strategic location of Ethiopia?
Continue with the fast growth strategy to position Ethiopia to lead the renaissance of Africa. Ultimately, Ethiopia’s renaissance will give birth to Africa’s renaissance which will also be the guarantee for sustenance of Ethiopian renaissance.
Continue to build an effective and efficient lean military machine as deterrence to Egypt and its proxies that win war easily & quickly (if we are forced to defend ourselves/Please note that Ethiopia’s history is a history of defensive war and it shall continue to be so). Whether we like it or not Ethiopia sits on one of the most volatile, conflict and war prone strategic regions of the world. Egypt is the strategic enemy and rival of Ethiopia. When Egypt invaded Ethiopia in 1875, Egypt demanded to be given the exact region what the Italians later called Eritrea or continue with their invasion of Ethiopia. Emperor Yohannes rejected their demand and fought and defeated them until their government in Egypt was collapsed. Unfortunately, the Italians replaced the Egyptians and succeeded to curve out Eritrea. After the 2nd world war the UN decided to federate Eritrea with Ethiopia, though Egypt claimed Eritrea and strongly opposed the federation with Ethiopia. Thereafter, Egypt created the Eritrean People Liberation Front (EPLF) and funded the 30 years bitter war that caused untold death, destruction and suffering to the people of Ethiopia and succeeded to snatch Eritrea from Ethiopia to make it its de facto colony. Let me repeat it clear and loud again- Eritrea is the de facto colony of Egypt and a thorn in the flesh for Ethiopia. Do not expect lasting true peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea until the insecure President Isaias, who is the agent of Egypt, that transformed Eritrea to open air prison is judged by God. Allocate more budget to the military. Leverage on the geopolitical position and strategic location of Ethiopia and establish strategic cooperation with the superpowers that enables Ethiopia to build a military power that rivals Egypt. While most of the superpowers and the Middle East economic powers have established their military base at the door steps of Ethiopia can Ethiopia survive without strong army? The answer is a big no! When the late PM Meles came to power in 1991 on his first interview for the Ethiopian Television said “we Ethiopians do not need a big army, it is better we are recognized having big industry rather than a big army”. This was an innocent wish from a naive prime minister that was to be proven disastrously wrong after 8 years when Egypt backed Eritrea stabbed him from back and invaded Ethiopia. Contrary to what the Egyptians want us to believe that they do not need the GRED, the truth is that they badly need it as “free of charge reservoir” as far as their so called historic right is protected. All the money they have invested to create instability on Ethiopia is to enable them to arm twist the Ethiopian government to sign a water sharing agreement that legitimizes their “historic claim”. That is exactly what they did to Sudan decades ago and they want to repeat it with Ethiopia. PM Dr. Abiy beware of the Egyptians! They will try to deceive you directly or indirectly (through African Union, UN, superpowers, leaders of Middle East rich countries, etc. they know you have shortage of hard currency and they will offer you with strings attached) say no to their zero sum demands, like the late PM Meles who gave his precious life for his country.
Build strategic security alliance with USA and Israel, while maintaining strategic economic alliance with China and maintaining good relationship with India, Middle East, Europe, Russia etc.
Deepen the security alliance and economic integration with Sudan.
The Algiers agreement with Eritrea was misguided and was a mistake (may be Ethiopia was cheated through the hidden hand of Egypt working through Algeria’s’ President who brokered the deal. I was surprised when I recently knew that Egypt and Algerians worked together to create the Eritrean People Liberation Front).
It should be the 1st stupid post war peace agreement in the world because “a defeated aggressor was appeased as if it was the victor”. TPLF and EPRDF have repetitively failed Ethiopians with regard to Eritrea as illustrated below and history will make them accountable for generations to come.
(i) The TPLF recognized the Eritrean case as colonial issue denying thousands of years history of Ethiopia
(ii) EPRDF supported the secession of Eritrea from Ethiopia without securing the Assab port and reduced Ethiopia to be the most populated country on earth without sea port
(iii) Disgracefully ended the costly border war in the year 2000 with huge cost to Ethiopia but no gain (I feel very angry about those Ethiopian soldiers who died during the in harry and unorderly withdrawal from Eritrea after the defeat of Eritrea)
(iv) Signed the most stupid post war agreement which did not bring peace and caused major economic, security damage to Ethiopia particularly to the people of Tigray
When is TPLF/EPRDF to apologize for all their mistakes on the issue of Eritrea?
What mistake should we expect next …. next? I hope you are not rushing to make again another concession without securing long lasting peace to the people of Tigray who have suffered the most during the last 20 + 17 years. Do not expect to reduce military expense as far Egypt continues its zero-sum game against Ethiopia and cost reduction does not justify rushed concession to President Isaias.
I hope Dr. Abiy to learn from history and never again to appease Shabia! Do not discredit the blood of hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians who died in the battle fields/mountains of Eretria from Emperor Yohannes to Emperor Haile Selassie, Derg to EPRDF time.
There should not be any border demarcation without comprehensive peace agreement that could bring a lasting peace! The aggression of Eritrea in May,1998 was never caused by border dispute, it was caused by economic related disagreement between Shabia and EPRDF and President Isaias’s political ambition to directly or indirectly dominate and rule the horn of Africa. The good news is Shabia’s days are numbered as its “judgement cup is full” and its demise is soon. No compromise on Eritrea and be vigilant as president Isaias is armed and dangerous and his spies have already penetrated the Ethiopian government structure.
President Kirr of South Sudan has failed his people and cooperated with Egypt to harm Ethiopia. He shall go soon!
Do not forget the suffering of our brothers in Yemen, Ethiopia should play a role as neutral peace broker.
Learn from the mistakes of President Morsi of Egypt and from President Gorbachev of the former USSR since both of them miserably failed while managing national changes.
I have also included the link for four of my articles from last year as they are still relevant.
Least but not last, I would like to declare my strong conviction that God has given EPRDF a 2nd chance, as far as it is willing to be born again, and I would like to boldly restate the 1st ever message EPRDF repeatedly broadcasted on the Ethiopian radio 27 years ago to herald the rebirth of EPRDF as follows:
“የዘመናት የሕዝብ ብሶት የወለደዉ ጀግናዉ የኢሕዲግ ሰራዊት ደርግ ሲጠቀምበት የነበረዉን ሬድዮ ጣብያ ለሰፊዉ ህዝብ ጥቅም ተቆጣጥሮታል”
Chapter I for EPRDF is over, Chapter II begins under the leadership of Dr. Abiy Ahmed!
God Bless Ethiopia
God Bless TPLF/EPRDF! Amen!"