Bloomberg said Abiy is More Like a Kid than a Leader
Posted: 23 Dec 2023, 20:00
Fresh From One Spat, Abiy Enters a Couple More: Next Africa
As one foreign affairs dispute dies down, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has entered two more.
This week Egypt said it reserved the right to defend its water supplies and national security after a fourth round of talks over Ethiopia’s giant dam on a Nile tributary failed.
And on Wednesday, the African Development Bank announced it would withdrew its international staff from Addis Ababa because it hadn’t received a satisfactory response from the government on why two of its staff had been arrested and assaulted.
The latest flare-ups come two months after Abiy angered landlocked Ethiopia’s neighbors by saying his country had a right to direct access to the Red Sea.
While the spat with the AfDB will further isolate the country at a time when it’s poised to default on its international debt, the dispute with Egypt poses a more longer-term threat.
Egypt’s military is far larger than Ethiopia's and in recent years it’s become increasingly incensed by what it sees as intransigence from the government in Addis Ababa. Egypt says Ethiopia has refused to compromise on how fast the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can be filled and how it can be operated.
Cairo and Sudan argue the giant reservoir will curb the flow of water downstream. Ethiopia says it has a sovereign right to meet its energy needs.
For Egypt, the Nile is existential. Of its 110 million people, 95% live within a few kilometers of its banks. The waters irrigate its fields and many rely on the river for fishing and transport.
Any impediment to its flow is likely to prompt a sharp response.
That’s something Abiy should probably look to avoid. His economy has been shattered by a brutal civil war with the restive region of Tigray and Amhara militia are mounting a new challenge.
With problems at home, he may need to rather cool tensions abroad.
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