Behind all the internal instability of Ethiopia, Egypt is behind the curtain and Isaias is the front man!
The core contention of Ethiopia and Egypt, which is water share agreement, could be be resolved in monetary terms as follows:
The economic value of the water flowing to Sudan and Egypt:
o As of today, the annual flow of water from Ethiopia’s all rivers to South Sudan and Sudan is estimated to be 73 billion Cubic meters. Assuming ocean water salination cost is USD 0.40 per Cubic meter (this is the current lowest cost according to new salination plants build by Israel) and assuming 25% of salination cost to be the price of each cubic meter of water flowing out of Ethiopia, the annual price of the total water out of Ethiopia is: USD 0.40/ cubic meters X 25% X 73 billion cubic meter = USD 7.3 billion per year
o Similarly, the annual flow of the Abay (Blue Nile) river to Sudan is about 53 billion cubic meters. Based on the above assumptions the economic value of the Abay river to both Sudan and Egypt is USD 0.40/ cubic meter X 25% X 53 billion cubic meters = USD 5.3 billion per year
Ethiopia could share 50% of the water free of charge to both Sudan and Egypt (this is huge concession on a resource generated in its highlands eroding its soil and affecting its crop productivity , fauna and flora, which both Egypt and Sudan has to cover 50 % of annual maintenance cost )
o Assuming Ethiopia is willing to share 50% of the annual flow free of charge to both Sudan and Egypt (based on the principles of equitable usage of water), Ethiopia could charge both Sudan and Egypt USD3.65 billion per year for all the water flows to the Nile. Considering Egypt share is 78%( as per Egypt and Sudan agreement), Ethiopia could demand Egypt to pay Ethiopia about USD 3 billion per year. In addition to this , Egypt and Sudan have to share( 50%) annual maintenance cost of Ethiopia for plantation and conservation projects). Similar calculation could be done for Sudan in proportion to its share agreement with Egypt.
o Egypt that generates annually about USD 10 billion from Suez Canal, USD 13 billion from tourism and USD 30 billion from its agricultural sector is capable and should be willing to compensate Ethiopia to sustain its water security in a win-win manner.
- Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt could also construct additional cascade of dams on the Blue Nile , Tekeze, Baro etc for the water to be shared on equitable basis.
- Ethiopia's right to utilize its water with out causing significant harm to both Sudan and Egypt shall be always guaranteed.
https://sudantribune.com/article66779/
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