Amharas & Tigrayans in Tigray & Eritrea do not support Abiy’s war to get Assab & Eritrea
Posted: 20 Nov 2023, 14:23
Between 2021 and 2022 Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki used Afar forces (including Liyu police and also more than 20,000 fighters / militants from Eritrea and Djibouti) in their war in Tigray. The Afar position and demands is to accept the current situation (divided and living) in three states (Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti) or establishment of an independent Afar State. Five groups are working on this issue:
1. Ethiopia: Ethiopia demands that local militias be disarmed, and that those coming from outside the country leave the region and go to where they originally came from (Eritrea and Djibouti). Oromo officials in Addis Ababa have told the Afar that they should not miss this opportunity (the current situation between Ethiopia and Eritrea) and they should unite their people in/under one state (the new Oromo state that will replace Ethiopia). Afar politicians and elites welcomed this proposal.
2. Eritrea: Eritrea wants to use these forces against Ethiopia, which Ethiopia does not welcome. Eritrea supports three groups (Amhara Fano, Afar militias, and indirectly Tigray fighters), and uses them against Ethiopia, and this is what worries Oromo leaders.
3. Oromos: OPDO officials in Addis Ababa realize that they cannot rule the country anymore, and at any time power could shift to either the Amhara or Tigray forces, and hence they have a plan to establish their own state but to include territories from Afar, Tigray and Amhara regions. To achieve this, they need direct access and control to the Red Sea (the territory between Assab and Massawa in Eritrea), but through the Afar people.
4. Tigrayans: The TPLF is happy with the way things are and does not want peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea, so it is using its Afar friends and the “Tigraway” principle that unites the Tigray people of Ethiopia and Eritrea.
5. The owners of the issue: Afars demand is not what the two countries or the TPLF want, but to have an independent state (Afar government in the Afar Triangle). Afars believe that working with the Oromo state is better than living under Eritrea and Djibouti. Afar politicians and goblin elites support this proposal, but things could change overnight.
Amharas & Tigrayans in Tigray & Eritrea do not support Abiy’s war get Assab & Eritrea. New trends/threats: once the war in Amhara stops, there will be a war between Oromos / Afars and Eritrea, followed by a war between the Oromos and the Afars.
1. Ethiopia: Ethiopia demands that local militias be disarmed, and that those coming from outside the country leave the region and go to where they originally came from (Eritrea and Djibouti). Oromo officials in Addis Ababa have told the Afar that they should not miss this opportunity (the current situation between Ethiopia and Eritrea) and they should unite their people in/under one state (the new Oromo state that will replace Ethiopia). Afar politicians and elites welcomed this proposal.
2. Eritrea: Eritrea wants to use these forces against Ethiopia, which Ethiopia does not welcome. Eritrea supports three groups (Amhara Fano, Afar militias, and indirectly Tigray fighters), and uses them against Ethiopia, and this is what worries Oromo leaders.
3. Oromos: OPDO officials in Addis Ababa realize that they cannot rule the country anymore, and at any time power could shift to either the Amhara or Tigray forces, and hence they have a plan to establish their own state but to include territories from Afar, Tigray and Amhara regions. To achieve this, they need direct access and control to the Red Sea (the territory between Assab and Massawa in Eritrea), but through the Afar people.
4. Tigrayans: The TPLF is happy with the way things are and does not want peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea, so it is using its Afar friends and the “Tigraway” principle that unites the Tigray people of Ethiopia and Eritrea.
5. The owners of the issue: Afars demand is not what the two countries or the TPLF want, but to have an independent state (Afar government in the Afar Triangle). Afars believe that working with the Oromo state is better than living under Eritrea and Djibouti. Afar politicians and goblin elites support this proposal, but things could change overnight.
Amharas & Tigrayans in Tigray & Eritrea do not support Abiy’s war get Assab & Eritrea. New trends/threats: once the war in Amhara stops, there will be a war between Oromos / Afars and Eritrea, followed by a war between the Oromos and the Afars.