Some will say Seyoum Teshome is just a YouTube activist who can’t be taken seriously, but this is far from the truth. Seyoum is a PP cadre who makes frequent appearances on Ethiopian state media, and just last week received a Medal of Honor from the Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian army Berhanu Jula and became an “honorary” member of ENDF. Field Marshal Berhanu Jula told Seyoum and the other recipients to lead the digital war for ENDF. Anything Seyoum says probably has the full support of Abiy.
Seyoum did an interview two days ago on his YouTube channel explaining what caused the fallout between Abiy and Isaias, and how the war between #Ethiopia and #Eritrea will start. I’ve translated the major parts of the interview and will give a brief summary of it.
In this interview Seyoum says that the war will not be over Assab and that it's mainly about the war in Amhara region. He says that Eritrea is the main driver of this war and is working to topple Abiy’s government.
(Even though what led up to the #WarOnAmhara is the government’s attempt to disarm Amhara before TPLF in order to hand over Welkait and Raya to TPLF, and the systematic ethnic cleansing and genocide Amharas have been facing since Abiy came to power, it seems like the Abiy regime has completely absolved itself from responsibility and put the entire blame on Eritrea. It’s important to note that there is no evidence of Eritrean support to Amhara as there is a heavy presence of ENDF in Welkait, making it almost impossible for Eritrea to provide support to Fano).
Seyoum says that the Assab issue was only brought up after repeated attempts to convince Isaias to stop destabilizing the Amhara region failed. He says the Ethiopian government is responding in kind by establishing a military camp in Adigrat, Tigray for Brigade Nhamedu (the Eritrean/Tigrayan opposition that has been disrupting Eritrean festivals across the world). The military camp was established a few days ago.
How the war will start:
According to Seyoum, the war will start with a false flag operation from Adigrat to provoke Eritrea to start the war. Once Eritrea starts the war, Abiy will use this opportunity to take over Assab. He also mentions how the Ethiopian government will arrest the close to 300,000 Eritreans living in Ethiopia and send them to military training and send them to the war to topple Isaias. When asked how Ethiopia will get away with taking Assab as Eritrea is a sovereign nation, Seyoum mentions how Russia and Israel have managed to annex land and get away with it. He says that the only way this war can be avoided is if Isaias stops interfering in the Amhara region and agrees to sign a 7 point bilateral agreement that deals with military, intelligence, water, and port cooperation between Ethiopia and Eritrea that’s been sitting on his desk for some time. If this is not done, he says the false flag operation from Adigrat will be started and when war breaks out Ethiopia will try to take Assab.
“We can topple Isaias, as long as he is working to topple Abiy Ahmed.” ~ Seyoum Teshome
I’m sure a lot of people will think this is far-fetched and unlikely to happen, but if you look back at every action Abiy has taken since signing the Pretoria agreement, nothing Seyoum said in this interview is far-fetched. Abiy is an overconfident maniac who always underestimates his enemies. He underestimated TPLF and thought the war was over in 3 weeks and nearly lost if it wasn’t for Amhara, Afar, and Eritrean support. He underestimated Fano thinking that he could easily disarm them in a few weeks and has now lost control of almost the entire Amhara region and is now fighting to save his regime. And he is probably underestimating Eritrea and thinks he can galvanize Ethiopians and take over Assab in a few weeks. He also seems to have the full backing of Mohamed bin Zayed (MBZ) of UAE, who has invested billions in his regime and has been supplying him with arms the past 6 years, with frequent cargo flights between the two countries since MBZ's visit to Ethiopia in August. UAE's ambition to dominate the Horn of Africa with control of the ports of Berbera and Assab after being expelled from Djibouti might explain why MBZ would back Abiy's plan to annex Assab. Seyoum in this interview mentions that cranes and other port equipments that UAE had bought from Italy to redevelop the port of Assab were returned after Isaias refused to accept them (he doesn't give timeline of when this occurred). If a war between Ethiopia and Eritrea indeed breaks out, it's hard to imagine Abiy going into it without the full support of MBZ.
I was of the view that Abiy brought up the Red Sea agenda to distract from his battlefield losses in Amhara region, but I won’t be surprised if he’s delusional enough to think that going to war with Eritrea will be easy and that it’ll help him galvanize Ethiopians behind his unpopular regime.
