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Can Issaias win his last war?

Posted: 25 Oct 2023, 14:01
by Mesob
This war is a repeat of history after 500 years. (Read below)
So far by hook or by crook, Issaias Afeworki has won most of his wars, be it domestic or regional. For evidence, one only needs to dig the grounds in Eritrea and many nations around Eritrea, be it Yemen, Sudan, Djibouti, Ethiopia or Tigray.
Right now in his old age, Issaias is facing his last and decisive war that will define his exit from his long march and journey in politics.
According to the rules of mathematical probability, the likely of Issaias Afeworki winning his last war against Abiy Amed and the Oromoma dominated army is very low. However, Issaias is known for using low possibilities to his own advantage.
Given and assuming many conditions, How can Issaias win this war?
Issaias may win this war, only if he can get the Tigrayan and the Amhara forces to come together, and take the war to Shewa region: Debreberhan, Shewa Robbit ... Yes, If Issaias can send some of his forces and throw all his lot with the Amharas, then the war will be over in few weeks. After that, Issaias, the Amharas and Tigrayans and the rest of Ethiopia have to create a new confederation in Ethiopia, with new rules, otherwise, we will be back where we are after few years.
This war is a repeat of history in Abyssinia. The current situation and the wars raging in the Amhara region and the rest of Ethiopia, such as the Guragie region, Agaw region, Tigray region, Somali and Weleyata regions and now coming to the old Bahre Negasi Eritrea, with the Oromo forces at the center, is a reflection of the Gala invasion in 1530s, right after the destruction and devastation by the Ahmed Gragn wars and his defeat.
This war should be defined as the Oromo Invasion 2.0 because the Oromos are are fighting to change everything, reassert themselves and to rewrite every history and define everything in their own image. To understand this better read Abba Bahrey's book on the The Gala Invasion, as translated by the late Getachew Haile from Geeze.
We are simply revisiting Abba Bahrey's: the Gala Invasion

Put your comments below.

Re: Can Issaias win his last war?

Posted: 25 Oct 2023, 14:27
by Fiyameta
2023 Tigray's Cycling World Championships :oops: :oops: :oops:


Re: Can Issaias win his last war?

Posted: 25 Oct 2023, 14:36
by Dark Energy
Deceitful Agame Mesob,

Mesob and Agame are not synonymous . You must be empty Mesob 😁😎
To answer your question, Isayas is not super man. It is the Eritrean people’s wrath the little h’,,,mo like is going to face. The super powers may have a hand in it too. In that case, diplomacy is the key. If you ask me, Abbiy the weasel, is just making a threat to appease his superiors. Isayas needs to shed this last century Marxist philosophy that does not work in the twenty first century politics. Isayas needs to hand power to the new generation. That is all. Little Abbiy the weasel days in power are numbered.Agame man, what is Getachew’s take on this ? Got something to share ? :oops: :oops: :oops:

Re: Can Issaias win his last war?

Posted: 25 Oct 2023, 15:03
by Mesob
Will Issaias Afeworki lose this decisive war as Bahre Negash Issahak did in 1530s? If Issaias waits the war to come to Assab port or Zalambessa, he will lose the war. Issaias and his allied forces may only win this war in Shawa, be it Shawa Robbit or Debreberhan.

To read the repeat of history after 500 years,
Abba Bahrey’s Zenahu le Galla and its Impact on Emperor Za-Dengel’s War against the Oromo, 1603−1604

Summary
Zenahu le Galla, Abba Bahrey's singularly most popular manuscript, which has been quoted several times in this study, deserves serious consideration. As will be shown further in the chapter, although Bahrey authored other works, it was Zenahu le Galla that made him very famous and a significant intellectual in the country during the second half of the sixteenth century. His manuscript was and remains one of the most original documents in Ethiopian historiography. However, three points should be made before advancing further. First, although the main focus of this chapter is examining the importance of Zenahu le Galla, it also attempts to explore briefly other works of Abba Bahrey, especially some of the prayers he marshalled against the Oromo. Second, in this chapter I have drawn on my previous short articles on Abba Bahrey. Third, the title of Abba Bahrey's manuscript in its original Geez language is Zenahu le Galla, which is translated as ‘History of the Galla’. ‘Ethnography of the Galla’ or ‘News about the Galla’. However, according to Getatchew Haile, the Geez term Zena ‘has multiple meanings such as news, epistle, prophesy, deed, narrative, and so forth’. In this chapter, Zenahu le Galla, ‘History of the Galla’ and ‘News about the Galla’ are used interchangeably.

Zenahu le Galla, written in 1593 contains the first detailed description of pastoral Oromo population movement of the sixteenth century and its impact on the Christian Kingdom of Ethiopia together with their history and their social organization. As the first detailed study of Oromo social organization of the time, Zenahu le Galla makes unprecedented claim to authority on pastoral Oromo population movements during the second half of the sixteenth century. It also contains the first rational thorough analysis of the class structure of the Christian society of his time, which demonstrates Bahrey's deep knowledge about his society and how he used that knowledge effectively for educating the elite at the court of Emperor Sarsa Dengel. As the first detailed historical document that dramatically presents the impact of Oromo warfare on the Christian kingdom, Bahrey's manuscript has been the most widely read and referenced source on Ethiopian history in general and early Oromo history in particular. The manuscript has been translated into three major European languages, German, French and English. It was first translated from Geez into Amharic in the 1940s.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/ab ... 4E947A6673

Re: Can Issaias win his last war?

Posted: 26 Oct 2023, 15:12
by Sadacha Macca
Nonsense. Oromos have no desire to do ANY of the things you stated( without any actual evidence to substantiate your claims.)
You should read brother Infos recent post on here. He actually makes sense.
Abiys issue with Eritrea has more to do with distractions, western pressure, and feelings of betrayal (perhaps feeling Eritrea is supporting fanos war.)
Oromos have always been the primary and main targets of Abiys govt. He's simply about preserving his groups power, his group being a handful of elites. Remember also, tplf and shabia both made opdo in the last days of mengistu, to counter the OLF.
To be a puppet and facilitate the exploitation of oromia and oromos. Now the puppet parties in power and wreaking havoc, apparently. Oromos ain't surprised. The opdo have been doing worse in oromia alongside tplf/endf for decades.